The weather forcast until end January in here

mike65

That Kiwi who predicted the foul summer has just been talking to Matt Cooper, here is what he said (roughly)

Rest of Oct - mixed
Nov - Low pressure until 10th then a week of dry then dull.
Dec - Dry and cool, about a weeks worth of suuny days.
Jan - Wet and cool for first 3 weeks then dry remaining cool/cold. I guess if its cold enough that wet could well be snowy at times.

He promised a fine warm summer just to keep me from throwing myself off something.

Mike

junkyard

mike65 wrote: »

.

He promised a fine warm summer just to keep me from throwing myself off something.

Mike

I wouldn't be cancelling my holidays to stay here just yet though tbh;).

Danno

Seems a decent enough forecast. Plenty of frost by the sounds of it. Healthy.

Deep Easterly

mike65 wrote: »

just to keep me from throwing myself off something.

If this winter is a repeat of the last one, throwing myself off something will seriously be considered.

mike65

mike65 wrote: »

That Kiwi who predicted the foul summer has just been talking to Matt Cooper, here is what he said (roughly)

Nov - Low pressure until 10th then a week of dry then dull.

It looks like he has got this part basicly right - some pretty decent weather for the SE at least coming by the looks of it (might get the lawns cut for one last time after all).

Mike

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

If this winter is a repeat of the last one, throwing myself off something will seriously be considered.

don't tease us like that paddy1. we would not be that lucky:P

M.T. Cranium

I agree with any forecast that gives cold a chance this winter.

There's some very cold air building over Greenland through the next two weeks, if it all came towards Ireland at some point as the models keep hinting, there could be quite a snowfall event despite the ocean trajectory, for one thing the ice margin is creeping south up there and some of these maps around 10-15 days from now would allow that ice to surge south towards Jan Mayen and north coast of Iceland. Could this be "the" winter that many have waited for (since 1991 let's say)? I think it could, this arctic expansion is much stronger than the past few years and there's signs of ridge building in my part of the world which will help to shove more cold air away from Alaska and towards Greenland.

But I see a signal for a mild and stormy period around the full moon in December (12th), so if you see some wintry weather in late November it would probably end with a frosty high for a few days before this mild spell sets in. Then I think there would be an increasingly good chance for wintry conditions in late December and through January.

Getting the right pattern in western Europe is a really delicate procedure, I suppose you could say, but I am optimistic, there are a lot of good signs. A really good sign would be the appearance of strong high pressure in northwest Russia after mid-December, because the retrograde index (likelihood of retrogression or westward pattern shift) peaks in early to mid January this winter, according to research.

I think some of my research methods may be similar to the NZ guy, if he's Ken Ring that is, although we haven't collaborated.

I have a winter forecast up now on Net-weather in the main autumn discussion section, look for it as "RJS + BFTP winter forecast" as I entered it as a joint effort with another forum member over there. Basically, we're calling for colder than average weather to make appearances through most of the winter with some very mild spells interrupting the wintry conditions, but for Ireland I suppose this might be closer to a 50-50 mixture in the pattern we're expecting.

The research is showing some hope for a white Christmas but a better chance of snow around New Years Eve; however, the best bet for some really cold weather seems to be in the second half of January. This would break a pattern of mild Januaries that has become the scourge of weather fanatics from all parts of the British Isles.

kerry1960

MTC Excellent post as usual mate, would love to be posting pics of an 'Artic Kerry' later in the season , not as crazy as it sounds it has happened before , long time ago , .

Danno

Excellent post MTC. If your predictions come to pass, then a truely remarkable winter is just around the corner. The current mild conditions that we've had over the last two days have caught my attention in the fact that the air was sourced very deep down south, yet we only managed 13c highs. In previous years, such sypnotics would have yielded a 16c or 17c max somewhere in the country.
The mild isn't just as mild as it used to be - if you know what I mean.

Snowbie

Air was sourced from the south but wind was not a direct southerly and which had been modified as it moved northwards over a cooling Atlantic SST's. Also lacking was prolonged sunshine. Basically an anticyclonic gloom setup.

Temps would have hit a close 16C or 17C if air was direct southerly and with prolonged sunshine.
Max here was 14.1C in this spell.
My Nov record is 17.4 (2007)

Deep Easterly

nacho libre wrote: »

don't tease us like that paddy1. we would not be that lucky:P

On second thoughts, If my existence is causing you discomfort, then I would be my delight (and my duty) to stay around just a wee while longer....



Steam..

Gonzo

I too can remember 16C and 17Cs for November over past few years, I think about 2 years ago we managed to get an 18C during November. This year is way different, most of October struggled double figures and so far its been the very low teens for this November.

Danno

Today is my only second day to record a teen degrees celcius this month.

Pangea

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I agree with any forecast that gives cold a chance this winter.

There's some very cold air building over Greenland through the next two weeks, if it all came towards Ireland at some point as the models keep hinting, there could be quite a snowfall event despite the ocean trajectory, for one thing the ice margin is creeping south up there and some of these maps around 10-15 days from now would allow that ice to surge south towards Jan Mayen and north coast of Iceland. Could this be "the" winter that many have waited for (since 1991 let's say)? I think it could, this arctic expansion is much stronger than the past few years and there's signs of ridge building in my part of the world which will help to shove more cold air away from Alaska and towards Greenland.

But I see a signal for a mild and stormy period around the full moon in December (12th), so if you see some wintry weather in late November it would probably end with a frosty high for a few days before this mild spell sets in. Then I think there would be an increasingly good chance for wintry conditions in late December and through January.

Getting the right pattern in western Europe is a really delicate procedure, I suppose you could say, but I am optimistic, there are a lot of good signs. A really good sign would be the appearance of strong high pressure in northwest Russia after mid-December, because the retrograde index (likelihood of retrogression or westward pattern shift) peaks in early to mid January this winter, according to research.

I think some of my research methods may be similar to the NZ guy, if he's Ken Ring that is, although we haven't collaborated.

I have a winter forecast up now on Net-weather in the main autumn discussion section, look for it as "RJS + BFTP winter forecast" as I entered it as a joint effort with another forum member over there. Basically, we're calling for colder than average weather to make appearances through most of the winter with some very mild spells interrupting the wintry conditions, but for Ireland I suppose this might be closer to a 50-50 mixture in the pattern we're expecting.

The research is showing some hope for a white Christmas but a better chance of snow around New Years Eve; however, the best bet for some really cold weather seems to be in the second half of January. This would break a pattern of mild Januaries that has become the scourge of weather fanatics from all parts of the British Isles.

:eek: WOW you were right about it be stormy on the 12th, its given winds of 100 km for tomorrow, fair play to ya, so any chance of a white christmas ?

Danno

LOL!!! I thought we would not see this thread ressurected until the end of February! So far it seems eeeringly close to the real thing MT. Hats off to you. Still a long way to go, but so far so good.

mike65

Hmmm cold alright got the wet bit wrong.

chalkie

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I agree with any forecast that gives cold a chance this winter.
The research is showing some hope for a white Christmas but a better chance of snow around New Years Eve; however, the best bet for some really cold weather seems to be in the second half of January. This would break a pattern of mild Januaries that has become the scourge of weather fanatics from all parts of the British Isles.

Hey MTC.

This is the first time I've visited this thread and seen your forecast. While we didn't have a white Christmas we did have cold. I think it's too much to predict detail around dates or events at long range...for anyone! The general set-up doesn't look too far off the mark given the pattern(s) we've seen emerge this winter.

Interesting read and just wondering if you have issued any interim updates that I've missed?

Rgds,

Joe