Paddy Power calls it

RedPlanet

Ireland's biggest bookmaker said Thursday it would pay out more than 1 million euros ($1.35 million) on bets that Barack Obama will be the next U.S. president, three weeks before the election.

Dublin-based bookmaker Paddy Power said it made the "unprecedented decision" to pay on bets taken so far, following Wednesday's final campaign debate between Obama and his Republican rival John McCain, which polls judged the Democrat to have won.

"We declare this race well and truly over and congratulate all those who backed Obama," Power said in a statement.

http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSTRE49F4TZ20081016?rpc=401&

That's it folks, i think we are looking at a landslide victory.

flogen

Interesting - while I think it's now Obama's to lose it would be a killer for PP if it did go to McCain; double payout.

Anyone here get him at good odds so?

Inquitus

flogen wrote: »

Interesting - while I think it's now Obama's to lose it would be a killer for PP if it did go to McCain; double payout.

Anyone here get him at good odds so?

PP Recently got screwed on Lisbon

Also join BAPS!

Jesus Wept

The publicity will be worth more to them if McCain wins.

sink

Don't forget PP paid out in advance of the Lisbon treaty result and got that very badly wrong.

Hobbes

It isn't over until all the voting is done and counted. It was hubris and complacency that helped kill Kerry last time.

cooker3

They always do stuff like this. It's done for publicity sake, the free advertising they got more then offsets any costs. In anyway they will hedge by backing McCain on exchanges so don't look at this at anything other then PP marketing well.

jackdaw

Yeah it's gotta be a Publicity stunt, McCain will win ... guarantee it .. it's like in LA (i think) a few years ago a black guy and white guy were going for mayor .. the black guy was way ahead on opinion polls ... but lost ...

they call it white fright .. a lot of people will say the will vote for Obama .. but on the day will vote for McCain .. it's a sad state of affairs ,, but it will be due to the colour of his skin ...

shame ...

serfboard

Very good marketing Paddy. It's nowhere near decided.

jackdaw wrote: »

they call it white fright .. a lot of people will say the will vote for Obama .. but on the day will vote for McCain .. it's a sad state of affairs ,, but it will be due to the colour of his skin ...

This is true. It's happened many times where people tell pollsters what they think the pollsters want to hear, but do something different in practice/private.

However, Obama supporters maintain that this will easily be outweighed by the fact that substantial numbers of young people and black people, who have never voted before, will turn out to vote.

It's a bit like Karl Rove targetting 3 million Christian fundamentalists in the last election.

Hippo

jackdaw wrote: »

Yeah it's gotta be a Publicity stunt, McCain will win ... guarantee it .. it's like in LA (i think) a few years ago a black guy and white guy were going for mayor .. the black guy was way ahead on opinion polls ... but lost ...

they call it white fright .. a lot of people will say the will vote for Obama .. but on the day will vote for McCain .. it's a sad state of affairs ,, but it will be due to the colour of his skin ...

shame ...

While I'm not saying it couldn't happen again, the election you're referring to was in 1982 and there are, for instance, far more african americans and hispanics registered to vote now than then. And they're not voting for McCain.

Climate Expert

How much longer is this pr trick going to keep getting press.

Paddy power know that McCain is a 6/1 shot or 7/1 whatever. They know their risks very well and the price of being wrong times the prob of being wrong is less than the value of advertising they recieve.

Bottle_of_Smoke

Hippo wrote: »

While I'm not saying it couldn't happen again, the election you're referring to was in 1982 and there are, for instance, far more african americans and hispanics registered to vote now than then. And they're not voting for McCain.

But are they in states where democrats always win anyway?

Benedict XVI

serfboard wrote: »

However, Obama supporters maintain that this will easily be outweighed by the fact that substantial numbers of young people and black people, who have never voted before, will turn out to vote.

the young and blacks are also the more likely to not bother voting even though they said they would.

Paddy Power is trying to out do Michael O' Leary with the stunts.

Hippo

Bottle_of_Smoke wrote: »

But are they in states where democrats always win anyway?

Apparently not. In any case the original point was that people were likely to disguise their racism when answering pollsters questions. My point was that as that was in 26 years ago it's not unreasonable to assume that circumstances and attitudes may have changed in that time.

Galvasean

It's simple really. In order to stop allowing people to bet on Obama they must first pay out for those who have already bet on him. It's just them saving themselves from more losses in the long run.

Ponster

Inquitus wrote: »

Also join BAPS!

Is this subliminal messaging ?

blah

It is just a way of generating publicity, and even if McCain does win and they end up with a double payout, it's unlikely that they'll lose out that much. How many people bet on the US Election compared to horses/football/lotto?

jackdaw

Hippo wrote: »

While I'm not saying it couldn't happen again, the election you're referring to was in 1982 and there are, for instance, far more african americans and hispanics registered to vote now than then. And they're not voting for McCain.

I really hope so ...

clusk007

Hippo wrote: »

While I'm not saying it couldn't happen again, the election you're referring to was in 1982 and there are, for instance, far more african americans and hispanics registered to vote now than then. And they're not voting for McCain.

Its called 'the Bradley Effect'. Here's a good article about it-
http://www.sacbee.com/812/story/1141286.html

ziggy

This post has been deleted.

Climate Expert

It's simple really. In order to stop allowing people to bet on Obama they must first pay out for those who have already bet on him. It's just them saving themselves from more losses in the long run.

Have you ever heard of odds?

banquo

Guy in the London times says that there's also the opposite of the Bradley effect - people in Virginia saying they're voting McCain but voting Obama in the anonymity of the secret ballot.

Bottle_of_Smoke

just stuck my balance of €8 from my betfair on mccain. Last time I used it was during african nations so it was 8euro id probably never realise.

If the secret racist vote is as powerful as i suspect I gets €50!

Jimbo

That's €8 you'll never see again.

Why hasn't 'the secret racist vote' effected the polls?

brianthebard

Bottle_of_Smoke wrote: »

just stuck my balance of €8 from my betfair on mccain. Last time I used it was during african nations so it was 8euro id probably never realise.

If the secret racist vote is as powerful as i suspect I gets €50!

Are you expecting a "get out the (klan) vote" movement from the gop or something?

Manic Moran

Paddy Power has started paying out on Obama.

Interestingly, they're still accepting bets, though. That's a bit odd.

NTM

CivilServant

So people can bet and get paid at the same time, win win.

Bottle_of_Smoke

jimbo78 wrote: »

That's €8 you'll never see again.

Why hasn't 'the secret racist vote' effected the polls?

This thread has kind of explained that. I don't expect I'll win but I explained my reasons why it was 8 euro I'm unlikely to see anyway/