Is there anywhere where someone can get impartial advice on the property market?

bobbysands81

Would love to have a chat to someone about property prices and the property market in the next couple of weeks.

Are there people out there that you can actually have a chat with who would be completely impartial and tell it like they see it?

I don't want a chat with a vested interest, just someone who will give independent impartial advice.

whizzbang

Property is such an immotive thing that it is hard to get impartial advice. You could try posting a question here or on www.thepropertypin.com where you would get good advice in general.

The_Conductor

Bobby- unfortunately its much as whizzbang says- everyone will have an opinion one way or the other, and no-one can tell you with any degree of certainty whats going to happen even in the short to medium term.

If you have specific questions- or would like to start a discussion on the topic- feel free to do so here- but be aware that you will get very contrasting replies to your questions.

Shane

jetski

I mirror the two previous posters opinions. people are devided into two groups.... those who own houses and those who dont. one is trying to talk the market up and the other is doing the opposite. best thing todo it study the forums yourself and make up your own mind. im doing it a year and a half now and have decided to buy i would like to wait a bit more but the house ive found is an absolute gem so i dont mind taking a bit of a hit (small bit mind you). if you buy a house now you are in the same boat as anyone who bought in the last 4 to 5 years given that the prices peaked aroundabout 2 years ago.

jackal

Post up on the pin, some good advice and great posters there. Every property advice thread here gets hijacked by a few extremists from the property only goes up crowd versus the property should cost 1.50 crowd.

astrofool

jackal wrote: »

Post up on the pin, some good advice and great posters there. Every property advice thread here gets hijacked by a few extremists from the property only goes up crowd versus the property should cost 1.50 crowd.

The pin has a majority of "property should cost 1.50 crowd". Askaboutmoney is the opposite (it banned most of the pinsters). Here it's about even split, no bad thing imo.

You need to do your own reading, and judge yourself. You're going to spend a significant portion of your life paying a house back, so be as informed as possible before making any decisions.

I do find it funny that Jetski's tune has changed now that he's buying a house, you almost miss the year old articles that the housing market coming crashing down

Gurgle

bobbysands81 wrote: »

Are there people out there that you can actually have a chat with who would be completely impartial and tell it like they see it?

No, never met or heard of anyone like that.
Good luck.

jetski

Astro, you cant blame me. it wont be long now with the interest rate cuts bank guarantee's and state mortgage plan i could be right but at the moment you can get a nice perecntage off the asking prices of most palces but if there is news of the market stabalising no seller will be willing to budge.

Pa ElGrande

Food for thought from thepropertypin

Qualifications to make predictions in the housing market?

You probably have exactly the same qualifications that I have to make a prediction about the housing market. – None. But, who does have qualifications to make these predictions? Your friends? Your colleagues? Your family? Television? Economists? Estate agents? Building societies? Banks? Whenever you take advice on any subject, it is basic common sense to consider

1. Who is giving you the advice?

2. What is their interest in the subject?

When it comes to the housing market, most people are unqualified. Some people have ‘experience’ and a very small amount of people have qualifications. The people you know (friends/colleagues) are unqualified, but may own their own home and can relate their own experience. They may not have an interest in misguiding you. However, due to the currently historically low interest rates, they may have just taken out a large loan on their property (for a holiday or car perhaps, personalized number plate or plasma screen TV and en-suite) and may not wish to believe certain possibilities. Of course I would never suggest that your family would purposefully give you harmful advice, but when they give you advice, ask them WHY they believe what they do. If they start using reasons that begin with “They say”, then ask WHO says? Do they have any figures on this? What research have they done?

Estate agents have much more experience in the housing market, and so ARE qualified to advise you. But will they advise you correctly? Or do they have a vested interest in selling you a property? If you were an estate agent, would you ever advise a customer NOT to buy a house? If the answer is ‘yes’ then you should NEVER become an estate agent. I have a friend who is an estate agent right now. He has seen business drop off dramatically recently, but still tells his clients that business is good. He tells me that business is terrible. But then I am his friend (yes they do have some friends). His words to me were: “I just sell houses. If I encourage people to borrow more than they can afford, knowing they will be in danger of losing their home, and that means I have sold a house. That means I have done my job and I get paid. It is ALWAYS their decision whether they take my advice. I can sleep easily at night. Sometimes I feel bad, but at the end of the day, THEY made the choice. I just encouraged them. I would never make that mistake.”. Trust an estate agent at your peril.

Banks and Building societies have a lot of facts and figures about the housing market. They see price movements, as in effect they are the ones that own most of the housing in this country. They make money by lending money. Every time they lend money, they use their customer’s savings accounts also borrowing on the money markets and securitisation to lend money to those who need to borrow. They pay the savings accounts slightly less interest than they charge the borrower, and they keep the difference. They will always take the most positive view of any figures in the housing market. If prices are slowing, they will tell you they will level off. If prices are falling, then they will tell you to buy now as houses are cheap, and the fall is about to end. Whatever they tell you can be roughly translated as “PLEASE come and borrow some money, our shareholders need profit”. If you ask someone selling fish at the fish market whether it is a good time to eat fish, what would they say?

Economists are experts in markets. Not housing markets, but all markets. Shares, gold, Pork bellies, oil, houses, rubber and lead are all commodities; they all have markets, and those markets have trends and patterns which can be analyzed.
Generally economists (that do not work for Estate agents or banks) have no interest in the market itself, their job is analysis. They don’t make money if the market rises. They don’t lose out if it falls. My opinion is that they are one of the best sources of advice for ANY market. PLEASE REMEMBER THAT MY OPINIONS ARE BACKED UP BY NO QUALIFICATIONS WHATSOEVER.

As for television… well. If you manage to turn on the TV when it ISN’T showing a property programme (Do you remember programmes? They are the things that come on between the loan adverts), you will probably find that the opinions they give are from lenders (IIB / BoI usually) or some institutions. The ECB is sometimes quoted (but remember, the ECB just states fact. They have to be neutral. It would be unfair of them to influence the market for Ireland's buyers, sellers or lenders).

Newspapers and TV are not experts, they just peddle common opinion. They jump on the bandwagon and report what they are told to by industry. Don’t believe everything you read in the press. I would go so far as to say, question EVERYTHING you read in the press. Look at what the estate agent is saying. What proof do they have? Who did the survey? What was it about? Some reporter huh?

So, back to the original question – are YOU qualified to make a decision about the future of the housing market?

There is some good news here. When your parents were buying a house, they only information they had access to was the TV, newspapers and their building society or bank. You have access to the most powerful resource on Earth – the internet. You may be reading this document through the internet right now. You currently have the power to read articles, facts, figures and opinion on the Irish housing market and throughout the world. If you do not have access to the internet at home, then spend Saturday at the library (remember those?) where internet access is FREE or if its not open then use the local internet cafe.

You have the chance to be one of the best informed buyers in history. You are about to make the biggest financial decision you will ever make in your life. YOU HAVE NO EXCUSE. Do some research. If only your parents had access to the information you do, then the previous house price
crashes may never have happened. Your parents bought on gut feeling, or out of necessity, which is no way to make a financial decision. You do not have to. It is IMPOSSIBLE to justify a purchase of this size without first consulting as much of the available information as you can. You must detach from emotion. You are about to make a business decision.

Senna

jetski wrote: »

Astro, you cant blame me. it wont be long now with the interest rate cuts bank guarantee's and state mortgage plan i could be right but at the moment you can get a nice perecntage off the asking prices of most palces but if there is news of the market stabalising no seller will be willing to budge.

If you look at it logically, the state mortgage plan should be ringing alarm bells in your head that its not time to buy. If the banks wont give you the money to buy a house, what does that tell you? It means the banks know the house is still over priced and just because FF need to bailout the developers, does not mean that now is the time to buy.

If you can get the mortgage through a bank, and you can afford it, then by all means buy now (its your decision), but dont allow yourself to be a pawn and let them put you in negative equity, just to line the developers pockets.

axel rose

bobby.
The simple answer is no. Now I dont mean this in a smart way, its just that when it comes to the Irish and their houses we are very passionate.


I think it can depend on what kind of advice you want- If you want to buy to let its quite simple, look at the price of similiar houses in the area, what does that mortage cost, then compare that to the asking price of rentals in the same locality in similiar houses. If the cost of the mortage and rent is acceptable to you then go for it.

however I suspect you are asking about the price of a house as a home as it may..... Im in the same situation. I find that for every reason to buy there is an equally good reason not to buy. personally I believe if you see a house that you believe will retain it value in 5 years (the days of houses doubling in value are gone thank god) and you love both the house and the area then you may have found a good place to buy.

a lot of people are still seeing their homes as an investment and not a home. Negative equity becomes a serious issue only when either you cant pay the mortage or want to sell, otherwise its just a number.

anyway Ill probably get slated for this viewpoint ...... good luck.

Senna

astrofool wrote: »

Right now, the banks don't have the money to lend for anything anyway.

This is bull, only a couple of days ago i went into AIB to discuss a mortgage, as long as we meet their criteria for earnings to mortgage amount, then they will gladly give you a mortgage. I went to AIB because i already have approval from EBS but AIB's rates are better at the moment.
Just because they wont give 10 times earnings and now you need a good sized deposit doesn't mean their not giving out mortgages. If they wont give you a mortgage then you dont earn enough or the house is still over priced.

IanCurtis

Impartial advice?

Borrow what you can afford to pay back and would like to live long term.

That's it.

Tom123

axel rose wrote: »

bobby.
The simple answer is no. Now I dont mean this in a smart way, its just that when it comes to the Irish and their houses we are very passionate.


I think it can depend on what kind of advice you want- If you want to buy to let its quite simple, look at the price of similiar houses in the area, what does that mortage cost, then compare that to the asking price of rentals in the same locality in similiar houses. If the cost of the mortage and rent is acceptable to you then go for it.

however I suspect you are asking about the price of a house as a home as it may..... Im in the same situation. I find that for every reason to buy there is an equally good reason not to buy. personally I believe if you see a house that you believe will retain it value in 5 years (the days of houses doubling in value are gone thank god) and you love both the house and the area then you may have found a good place to buy.

a lot of people are still seeing their homes as an investment and not a home. Negative equity becomes a serious issue only when either you cant pay the mortage or want to sell, otherwise its just a number.

anyway Ill probably get slated for this viewpoint ...... good luck.

I don't think any house in the country will retain itself value over the next 5 years. But there again lies your problem the range of views on house prices is wide.

axel rose

what makes you say that? 5 years is a long time. My point actually is if the property is bought as a home rather than an investment. (remember we used buy them with that in mind) If the house is right and the repayments are acceptable then whats the problem.
so what if generally prices may go down by a small % but if you see a specific house and you love it and the repayments are reasonable. If the place is somewhere can you can see yourself and your family growing up in it, buy it.
I hate the idea of renting long term because renting cannot be compared with anything outside ireland or britian. Its a hobby here, whereas in the the continent its a profession.
My experience of rented houses here consists of dodgy second hand furniture, limited privacy and being treated like a child when it comes to redecoration.
It may suit you to hold off at the moment, but not everyone.

Duckjob

axel rose wrote: »

Negative equity becomes a serious issue only when either you cant pay the mortage or want to sell, otherwise its just a number.

Axl, you omitted a very important one off that list:

3) or have to sell.

I think in the current climate, this is becoming increasingly relevent, and will make negative equity a harsh reality for thousands of people that, given the choice, would not have sold.

spockety

astrofool wrote: »

Right now, the banks don't have the money to lend for anything anyway.

Why do the mods allow this kind of thing to be posted? It is simply not true.

There are hundreds of mortgages being drawn down every week. Right. Now.

There are thousands of credit cards being used day in day out.

There are hundreds of car loans being approved and drawn down every week.

Credit is available, but the banks are stricter about who they are giving it to, and on what terms.

Please stop posting misinformation.

staker

Best of luck with the purchase jetski.
I too have been following all these threads with an interest the last 14 months.I've just gone sale agreed on a house i wouldn't pay the asking price or anywhere near it 12 months ago. Im pretty sure i'd probably get it cheaper again in a years time only i'm happy to pay now for the house i want.
I'm sick of waiting for all criteria to be perfect but now feels like the ball is partially in my court at least.
No BS from auctioneer,no pressure to finalise everything,and a bit of value too.

axel rose

Duckjob wrote: »

Axl, you omitted a very important one off that list:

3) or have to sell.

I think in the current climate, this is becoming increasingly relevent, and will make negative equity a harsh reality for thousands of people that, given the choice, would not have sold.

Do you think or do you know?

Of course there is an increase in the number of peole in NE but how many of them need to sell or cannot pay the mortage? If this is not the case then NE is just a number.......similiar to house value, in the sense that its neither money in the bank or an actual debt.

Duckjob

axel rose wrote: »

Do you think or do you know?

Of course there is an increase in the number of peole in NE but how many of them need to sell or cannot pay the mortage? If this is not the case then NE is just a number.......similiar to house value, in the sense that its neither money in the bank or an actual debt.

I agree with you that negative equity is fairly irrelevant to somebody who a) is happy to stay put for the next 20 years, and b) who's circumstances don't force them into selling.

However, the climate of rocketing unemployment and recession will force more and more people to realise their negative equity situation.
How many people you believe will be forced into these circumstances depends on how bad you think the recession is going to hit. Personally, I believe it's going to hit harder than any of us can even comprehend at the moment.

kmick

Dont listen to anyone - figure it out for yourself. The banks are giving money out to the right people. I am about to draw down a loan for an investment property and the bank is throwing money at me to the tune of 85% of the property value.

Lots of people are telling me that I am mad and that makes me feel better because lots of people are idiots.

Assuming the property is for living in rather than renting (the criteria for a successful buy to let are much tighter than for your main residence) then just think about these things.

1. You should try and have at least 10% of the property value + stamp duty + solictors fees + house insurance in your back pocket before you buy. These are necessary for the bank (although some will still give 100% mortgages). You can sleep in a sleeping bag on the floor if you cant afford a bed but the government wont wait for stamp duty.

2. Even though interest rates almost certainly will go down in the next 12 months take the current rate and add 2% to it. Figure out your repayments on that amount and imagine paying that level for 2 or 3 years. Are you reasonably comfortable with that figure coming out of your after tax salary?

3. Location, location, location. Its a cliche but something in Rathmines is more saleable than something in Portlaoise.

After that negotiate on asking price, don't ever get into a bidding war no matter how much you love the house, never trust anything an estate agent tells you, make sure to scope out the area thoroughly during the day and night etc etc.

4. Remember for a personal residence it is almost impossible for the bank to repossess if you agree to a repayment schedule if you ever get into trouble. Its a tricky area but let me just observe that most repossessions occur in circumstances where the person stops communicating with their lender. In the case of repossessions most people who get into trouble don't even turn up for their court date.

Best of luck if you do go for it.

The_Conductor

Kmick- I agree with most of your post- but I would query your ascertain that 100% mortgages are still available. To the best of my knowledge there are no longer any providors servicing the Irish market with 100% products.

S.

kmick

smccarrick wrote: »

Kmick- I agree with most of your post- but I would query your ascertain that 100% mortgages are still available. To the best of my knowledge there are no longer any providors servicing the Irish market with 100% products.
S.

http://www.aib.ie/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=ROIPersonalPortal/pp_main&c=AIBParent_P&cid=1136826205489&channel=P005
*AIB do a "Young Professional" Mortgage up to 100%
Its new - keep up smccarrick
I have no affiliation with AIB*

The_Conductor

kmick wrote: »

http://www.aib.ie/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=ROIPersonalPortal/pp_main&c=AIBParent_P&cid=1136826205489&channel=P005
*AIB do a "Young Professional" Mortgage up to 100%
Its new - keep up smccarrick
I have no affiliation with AIB*

New one for me. I'd question how many people are likely to meet the criteria for it though?

**A key criterion for qualifying for 100% finance is the potential for an increase in income over the short to medium term i.e. salary currently c EUR30,000 with potential to increase to cEUR65,000 within 3-5 years.

Getting from 30k to 65k in a 3-5 year window, particularly in the current climate, would be some achievement......

Firetrap

I don't think anyone who's thinking of going looking for a mortgage at the moment is going to be swayed by what people are posting here. I suppose the biggest change they'll find is that they'll have to stump up more of a deposit than they'd have needed to before and that they're not going to be loaned as much as they might have expected.

The problem for the OP is that when it comes to property, most people have a vested interest. I think most people would say that now is not the time to buy anything but in truth, nobody will know when the bottom has been reached. I lurk on The Property Pin where there are lots of folk who seem to know what they're talking about. Though like with every other site, you need to make up your own mind about whether you believe/agree what people are posting.

kmick

Firetrap wrote: »

I don't think anyone who's thinking of going looking for a mortgage at the moment is going to be swayed by what people are posting here.

Nobody here is trying to sway him/her either way. I think most of the points have been about figuring it out for yourself to be fair.

Firetrap wrote: »

I lurk on The Property Pin where there are lots of folk who seem to know what they're talking about.

Seem would be the key word here.

Firetrap

spockety wrote: »

Why do the mods allow this kind of thing to be posted? It is simply not true.

There are hundreds of mortgages being drawn down every week. Right. Now.....

Please stop posting misinformation.

I was responding to the above post when I was talking about people being swayed. I should have made it clearer.

As for the Property Pin thing, the opinion of people who post there is as valid as your opinion. It's up to everyone to make up their own mind.