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What factors do bookies take into account?

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  • 12-10-2008 7:34pm
    #1
    gerry87
    Registered Users Posts: 871 ✭✭✭


    Does anyone have any clue what bookies take into account when formulating their fair odds? Say for example a football match, how indepth do their analyses go? Obviously they must take into account Wins vs Losses for each team, wins vs losses for each team against the other each other...

    But how complicated do the calculations get? Wins vs losses depending on the weather? Wins with with a certain player playing in a certain position? If you were putting a model together, what would you include?

    Or do they simply make the spreads so big that they just need to be vaguely acurate?


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    #2
    Bubs101
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,478 ✭✭✭Bubs101


    I think it's normally just form, skill, home advantage and history. Weather might come into effect for specialist markets like goals scored


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    #3
    Dodge
    Registered Users Posts: 10,201 ✭✭✭✭Dodge


    Its safe to say that the great odds makers take everything into account. Some lazy ones out there though (thankfully for us punters)


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    #4
    kryogen
    Closed Accounts Posts: 25,953 ✭✭✭✭kryogen


    form
    reputation
    goals for and against
    league position
    history
    venue
    squad
    competition


    plenty more im sure but my hanover doesnt allow me to continue with thought


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    #5
    opr
    Registered Users Posts: 8,267 ✭✭✭opr


    Most bookmakers these days just look at the betfair market and price accordingly.

    Opr


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    #6
    Climate Expert
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,393 ✭✭✭Climate Expert


    opr wrote: »
    Most bookmakers these days just look at the betfair market and price accordingly.

    Opr

    A huge amount of markets on Betfair lack liquidity. Premiership football is ok but try and get odds on a Magners League rugby match.


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    #7
    opr
    Registered Users Posts: 8,267 ✭✭✭opr


    Climate Expert wrote: »
    A huge amount of markets on Betfair lack liquidity. Premiership football is ok but try and get odds on a Magners League rugby match.

    Yeah very true.

    This is why betting on stuff like rugby is far better than the likes of soccer.

    Rugby was one of the main sports that i have seen people beat the bookies lines consistently.

    Opr


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    #8
    Mellor
    Registered Users Posts: 39,123 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


    opr wrote: »
    Yeah very true.

    This is why betting on stuff like rugby is far better than the likes of soccer.

    Rugby was one of the main sports that i have seen people beat the bookies lines consistently.

    Opr
    +! for Rugby,
    I had a thread here highlighting the ridic handicaps for the WC and Six Nations


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    #9
    dsmythy
    Registered Users Posts: 10,510 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    kryogen wrote: »
    form
    reputation
    goals for and against
    league position
    history
    venue
    squad
    competition


    plenty more im sure but my hanover doesnt allow me to continue with thought

    Player morale
    Current form
    Statistics

    Probably more but couldn't be arsed thinking.

    I picked out reputation from yours because that can play a big part in a priced up match ususally between a nobody and a somebody.

    Be it Chelsea, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich the bookies know they will be getting a lot of money on these obvious picks. I reckon at the end of their calculation they shave a point off the price of the big teams.

    So they might having done their analysis reckon United at home are a 1/3 shot but then slice it into 2/7 after taking their overround and then again into 1/4 because they know people will be backing them as a single or part of an accumulater pushing out the other team in the process. Makes the prices on the well supported teams seem shockingly bad most times.


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