David McWilliams

pandamoanium

Sorry new to here, and this is OT, so mods lock/delete as necessary..

Excuse my ignorance and naivety (I plead I'm new!) but the David McWilliams that's registered on here, is that *the* David McWilliams, or just a namesake?

Just curious..

eVeNtInE

This post has been deleted.

I wouldn't be so sure...

Running Bing

Does he talk a lot of bull**** with a smug sense of self importance? That would be a dead give away.

10000maniacs

Babybing wrote: »

Does he talk a lot of bull**** with a smug sense of self importance? That would be a dead give away.

LOL:D
He has made a career of talking down the Irish economy for the last 10 years, and when it does actually happen, he is hailed as the new Aristotle. When he started his Agenda TV3 program 10 years ago, he was saying the bubble was gonna burst.
Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.

gurramok

He didn't have the foresight of 9/11 happening (IR's nosedived creating another bubble(this time housing as tech was burst))
Anyway, the govt consulted him on the guarantee so he must be a brainy git

eamonnm79

The Guarantee seems to be his idea. He was saying that we should do it in his Indo article a week before the gov did it.
I wonder did he think that the rest of Europe would follow suit so quickly as Greece and to a lesser extent Germany and Denmark already have.
The competitive advantage Irish banks gained is quickly being eroded.
However the fact we were first of the mark did help the banks get a flood of large deposits.

If It was his idea, the fact that so many other countries are following it must be a little daunting/ego massaging, depending on the type of person he is.

is_that_so

According to the Irish Times, the idea had been floated a few weeks before he came out with it and the Dept of Finance was not impressed with him claiming he came up with it.

Time Magazine

Nope, I'm not him. I change my nickname every now and again and I think I was drunkenly dared to be the good man himself this time. (I can't remember the exact reasoning, or much of that night for that matter.)

I'll be changing my nick again soon, so this will soon be out of date

rasper

10000maniacs wrote: »

LOL:D
He has made a career of talking down the Irish economy for the last 10 years, and when it does actually happen, he is hailed as the new Aristotle. When he started his Agenda TV3 program 10 years ago, he was saying the bubble was gonna burst.
Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.

While this is all true, the important thing to note is the other side of the crooked coin was telling us that their would be no slowdown at worst a soft landing, developers, banks, estate agents even our trusting leader spouting this s**te, the dog on the street knew what had to happen but FF only blame "international factors".
Yes, he was saying the same thing for ten years , but he was only emphasisng that history repeats itself and a property bubble has to burst.
The only shocker is that the fat cats seemed to have no idea this had to happen as I always thought the "don't talk down the economy" was hiding a master plan.
A democracy gets the government it deserves

damnyanks

It's also worth noting that his professional background would suggest his predictions had merit behind it.

10000maniacs

We all knew that the bubble was going to burst eventually. The only thing is McWilliams got bucket loads of money over the last 10 years for saying the same thing. Eventually he was going to be proved true, just as a stopped clock will eventually have the correct time. It doesn't mean that the stopped clock will be regarded as anyway useful.
I'd be impressed if he predicted the best route out of the recession. But thats not going to happen because he does not possess a crystal ball.

Économiste Monétaire

D. McW was on Q&A last night. He proposed that we get some 'gurriers' to make up a group modelled on the 'Untouchables', whom would have 'executive powers' to go into banks and find out what their situation really is. He quickly added that they need not be Irish, just in case any thought he was putting himself forward, of course. Obviously, the solution to our problems is to give ginger man a Tommy gun and let him play police man :pac:

damnyanks

Might get them to report how ****ed they really are. All the government has done is replaced over night market. Nothing has been added to addess the possability that they may face numerous defaults in the coming years.

gurramok

He does have a point. Irish regulation in the form of Pat Neary and Mr. Hurley at the Central Bank has failed.
We need some good independent 'take no crap from the present bankers' style people to get to know what's really going on inside the banking system here.

rasper

yes , he was only saying the same thing over and over, but so were most other economists and would not have to repeat it if proper action was taken to correct the problem.
The fact is nothing was done only to continue and exagerate the problem with more tax breaks and divert all capital and talent into construction.
A seven year old could have told ya that there was no economy outside of construction and the foreign national companies both of which were bound to wind up at some stage, so if the same problem exists what can ya do only repeat what the problem is. Sure , we know its a global problem but ya can be sure when the smoke clears Ireland will be a lot longer recovering than the rest of the normal balanced economies.
I feel he offered many potentially productive solutions such as developing better trade links with China and positioning ourselves as the middle man between itself and Europe, and also by using our diaspora in a more enterprising manner. IMHO a lot better advice as "must get on the property ladder at any cost" and "land they aint making any more of it y'know"

plasmaguy

I'm not so sure McWilliams said explicitly that the bubble would burst...

He was saying things like how we were all running up debts, German pensioners were investing all their money here, etc.

He pointed out some fairly obvious things that anyone could see..

eamonnm79

plasmaguy wrote: »

I'm not so sure McWilliams said explicitly that the bubble would burst...

In His book "The Popes Children" he did.
Well he actually just said that all bubbles burst.
The phrase that stuck with me was "Make sure you are not the paddy who is paddy last".
He was refering to being left with assets that were worth a lot less than they were bought for once a bubble bursts.
I sold a house I had bought as an investment.
Very glad I did.

Stabshauptmann

UCD_Econ wrote: »

D. McW was on Q&A last night. He proposed that we get some 'gurriers' to make up a group modelled on the 'Untouchables', whom would have 'executive powers' to go into banks and find out what their situation really is. He quickly added that they need not be Irish, just in case any thought he was putting himself forward, of course. Obviously, the solution to our problems is to give ginger man a Tommy gun and let him play police man :pac:

The regulator has moved from requiring all banks to prepare monthly liquidity returns, to weekly and even daily in some banks case.

I tend to believe that the regulator does known whats going on inside banks

nesf

UCD_Econ wrote: »

D. McW was on Q&A last night. He proposed that we get some 'gurriers' to make up a group modelled on the 'Untouchables', whom would have 'executive powers' to go into banks and find out what their situation really is. He quickly added that they need not be Irish, just in case any thought he was putting himself forward, of course. Obviously, the solution to our problems is to give ginger man a Tommy gun and let him play police man :pac:

Ever the populist etc.