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Should I have layed the bet?

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  • 05-10-2008 6:04pm
    #1
    PAU
    Registered Users Posts: 247 ✭✭


    I did a bet on Betfair,Liverpool/Hull/Pompey and Everton

    Now the first 3 won and Everton were ahead by 2 but ended up drawing,should I have layed the bet??


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    #2
    ArmaniJeanss
    Registered Users Posts: 13,325 ✭✭✭✭ArmaniJeanss


    In pure maths terms, you should only lock in a profit if you think there is value in doing so - in other words was the price Everton were when they were 2-1 up too short? (I'm assuming you couldn't lay them at 2-0 on the grounds that Liverpool/Hull games were not decided at this stage, if I have the timeline correct).

    In practise however other factors come into play, what the bet was worth in terms of your relative worth (would it change your life shortterm/longterm, paid off debts, got you a holiday etc). Or even if Everton had won with a late goal, would you have preferred to avoid the stress etc. Only you can know the answer to these.

    Personally I almost never bother locking a profit in unless the conditions in paragraph one are fulfilled - I enjoy letting bets run and experiencing the 'thrill'.


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    #3
    punchestown
    Registered Users Posts: 660 ✭✭✭punchestown


    I used to be old school like Armani but Ive had too many last minute kick in the nuts goals go against me. Id look to lock in at least your stake back so you incur no loss on the bet. Depending on potential winnings Id even look to lay off enough to have an equal amount of winnings coming back regardless of the outcome.


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    #4
    thedini
    Registered Users Posts: 857 ✭✭✭thedini


    if its a sustantial bet i always 'green' up, a win is a win and all that.


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    #5
    PAU
    Registered Users Posts: 247 ✭✭PAU


    It was a 10 Euro fourfold bet with the win at 339 Euro,kinda new to Betfair,just wanted the experts on here's opinion :)


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    #6
    Dodge
    Registered Users Posts: 10,189 ✭✭✭✭Dodge


    Without knowing the price you could've layed at its hard to say but I'd be one of the more cautious here and regularly lay off bets to ensure some profit


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    #7
    Bubs101
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,478 ✭✭✭Bubs101


    PAU wrote: »
    It was a 10 Euro fourfold bet with the win at 339 Euro,kinda new to Betfair,just wanted the experts on here's opinion :)

    If it was that big a payoff I'd have layed off for at least 100 euro but normally it takes a lost bet like that for people to realise when they should lay and when they should stay


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    #8
    Crumbs
    Registered Users Posts: 1,080 ✭✭✭Crumbs


    Anyone laying off a bet near the end of a multiple shouldn't have put the selection in the multiple in the first place.


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    #9
    thedini
    Registered Users Posts: 857 ✭✭✭thedini


    Crumbs wrote: »
    Anyone laying off a bet near the end of a multiple shouldn't have put the selection in the multiple in the first place.
    why not?


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    #10
    dsmythy
    Registered Users Posts: 10,510 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    thedini wrote: »
    why not?

    I'm guessing he means if someone thought all the bets in his accumulater were value then he'd have no problem letting the bet ride. Technically i agree with him but when you have a nice win for you staring you in the face with one selection left it is very easy to just lock in a profit rather than suffer the disappointment of losing out.

    That's presuming that's what he meant.


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    #11
    Crumbs
    Registered Users Posts: 1,080 ✭✭✭Crumbs


    There is the value aspect, which ArmaniJeanss already touched upon.

    But I also meant that if you can't handle a chunk of money rolling over onto your last selection, you should foresee that and not include them. Keep your accumulators to events that are on at the same time.


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    #12
    Dodge
    Registered Users Posts: 10,189 ✭✭✭✭Dodge


    But events during the games may change your view of the outcome. Why "risk" losing your stake if you don't think it will win? (I realise this may not have been the case here, but the point stands) There is no definitive answer as to whether some one should lay off a bet or let it ride. Each event/bet is independent of the other, and while the bet may have been value when you made it, there may be value in opposing your original selection now)


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