Betting strategy goals over/under 2.5

mike65

Earlier this evening I was flicking through the league pages on soccerway when a small light went on in my head - the goal line, namely over/under 2.5.

The German leagues esp Liga 2 are goal crazy yet the odds on PP (when they do more than the usual 3 options) are pretty much all about 1.5-1.7, when a win bet for the favourite is frequently 1.2-1.4. And of course it doesn't matter who wins in the goal line bet games.

Anyone ever tried this? As a little experiment I've bet on all tomorrows liga 2 games - having consulted soccerway stats I've gone for +2.5 in all matches.

Mike

ArmaniJeanss

In order to be scientific about it (boring I know) you should really take the results of say the last 20 weeks of Liga 2 (maybe slightly weight this seasons results) and work out

a) what percentage of the time that over 2.5 would have won.
b) what average odds would be needed to show a decent profit (say 5%+).
c) whether those odds are what you can normally expect to be given.

macshadow

If you want goals have a look at some of the dutch stats. ie Jupiler league.
I think you'd have to be more selective than backing all games.
It might be worth a try at backing overs in a game where both teams have scored less than 2.5 in most of their last six games.
Kinda in a jumping on and off stlye the longer a team has gone against form.

mike65

Part of the problem with minor leagues is that bookies often don't quote for them, even Liga 2 and the Dutch 2nd only get spotty coverage.

Mike

kryogen

i have been at this for a while now, mainly concentrating on the over 1.5 goals or market for la liga and champions league and prem......its going well but the odds are always short, i.e 2/7 so you need a few of them, but its a rarity for me to come out of a week losing with this

the under 2.5 one is another one i have looked at, and exactly the same as you i have targeted Germany!

its also great not to care who wins as long as there is at least 2 goals

mike65

The bet covered 6 games in Liga 2, 5 today of which 4 have been +2.5 and one game tomorrow so hopefull I'll win 5/6, which would be an exellent return.

Mike

ravima

Chelsea not bad so far this year at under 2.5

dsmythy

Good luck with it Mike although i'd imagine the bookies would have the unders/overs statistically covered on the German leagues.

macshadow

mike65 wrote: »

Part of the problem with minor leagues is that bookies often don't quote for them, even Liga 2 and the Dutch 2nd only get spotty coverage.

Mike

Betfair cover both those leagues, although the odds are dire.
Well done today. Try mixing a few in an accumulator.;)

Dodge

As Armani said, the key to any bet is research. A couple of years ago over 2.5 was very profitable in Serie A as it seemed people still thought Catenaccio was the rage. It had the highest average GPM for the top 10 leagues in europe

mike65

The final bet came in so 5 from 6 in one league on one day (almost), as I did a cowardly trebles from 6 my return was modest enough but I'm happy that what I thought should happen did happen. Looking through Liga 2 tables from 2007/08 shows the current stats are not a quirk. 7 out of 10 games are going to be +2.5 events in a typical week.

Mike