McCain gives up on Michigan

BenjAii

The Guardian has an interesting article on the fact that McCain has given up active campaigning in Michigan and what it means for the State by State play for electoral college votes.

In essence, should Michigan go to Obama, it just got a lot harder for McCain to get votes he needs to be president and a lot more likely it will be President elect Obama come Nov 5th.

The Telegraph feels the fight is about to get nasty as McCain gets desperate ; time to bring out some character assassination and questions about patriotism.

leninbenjamin

Weird. Am i right in thinking Michigan is normally fair game for either? I know it was really close the last time...

Overheal

If Obama won Michigan and Ohio, it would me nigh on impossible for McCain to win unless he grabbed all other disputed states:

http://www.foxnews.com/oreilly/winning-the-electoral-college/

^^^ That thing is great fun to play with.

amacachi

That is ridiculously fun to play with. Surprising amount of ways to get a 269-269 tie.

eltentwelve

amacachi wrote: »

That is ridiculously fun to play with. Surprising amount of ways to get a 269-269 tie.

You got that right.

cooker3

amacachi wrote: »

That is ridiculously fun to play with. Surprising amount of ways to get a 269-269 tie.

1 time please!

Black Swan

McCain gives up on Michigan? What message does this send to the other states, aside from Michigan? The smell of defeat? Bad message to broadcast indeed if you plan to win?

Michigan state polls by date:

Thursday, October 02
Michigan PPP (D)/ Obama 51, McCain 41 (Obama +10)

Thursday, September 25
Michigan Detroit Free Press/ Obama 51, McCain 38 (Obama +13)
Michigan Strategic Vision (R)/ Obama 48, McCain 45 (Obama +3)
Michigan Det. News (EPIC/MRA)/ Obama 48, McCain 38 (Obama +10)
Michigan NBC Mason-Dixon/ Obama 46, McCain 46 (Tie)
Michigan National Journal FD/ Obama 47, McCain 39 (Obama +8)

cooker3

Blue_Lagoon wrote: »

McCain gives up on Michigan? What message does this send to the other states, aside from Michigan? The smell of defeat? Bad message to broadcast indeed if you plan to win?

Well if he realistically thinks he can't win it or can gain more elsewhere and get better value for money, then only move he can make.
But it's a very bad sign for McCain in general that it has gotten to that

Overheal

Well if Obama wins Michigan, guess whats going to be the key battleground again... >.<

Florida

banquo

Obama's team are putting 40 million into Florida in this last month. That's an incredible amount by any standard.

Source is barackobama.com

There's no telling who'll win florida, but if I had to bet I'd still say McCain. Florida is McCain's to lose at the moment and if he does he's finished. What all the papers are saying - that Obama has several paths to victory whereas McCain has only one - is true.

Obama can win without florida and ohio by winning colorado, new mexico, new hampshire and nevada, but it'll be tough. He seems to be doing well in Virginia too, and he'll keep Iowa.

Not over until the fat lady sings.

Overheal

Dont be so sure. I was in Florida when Mike Moore's movie came out: Regal and other major cinema chains wouldnt play it (lobbyist ****s) but those that were playing it were overwhelmed: they were forced to oversell their screens. I was sitting on the floor to watch that documentary. Floridians still feel deeply wronged by the 2000 election.

banquo

As an Obama supporter, I do of course hope that he wins Fl. I've been unable to find much recent polling on it though, surprisingly enough...

Black Swan

banquo wrote: »

As an Obama supporter, I do of course hope that he wins Fl. I've been unable to find much recent polling on it though, surprisingly enough...

Wednesday, October 01
Florida InAdv PollPosition/ Obama 49, McCain 46 (Obama +3)
Florida CNN Time/ Obama 51, McCain 47 (Obama +4)
Florida Suffolk WSVN/ Obama 46, McCain 42 (Obama +4)
Florida Quinnipiac/ Obama 51, McCain 43 (Obama +8)

banquo

Aha. Yes, well *cough* very good then.

/goes back to learning how to use a computer

Seriously though, does anybody belive Quinniapc polls? They always have a few extra %'s for Obama. Like, always.

Overheal

And the sky has always been blue. I call foul play!

Lirange

All Obama has to do is hold the states Kerry won then win Iowa, NM, and Colorado, three states Bush, Jr. won in 2004. He's almost assured of winning the first two and Colorado looks a strong possibility. So basically if that happens he would still win even if he lost Florida, Ohio, Virginia, NC, etc.

Trojan

There's a saying we used to use about Man Utd: "You know you've beaten them when they're on the bus home". And not before.

Hobbes

banquo wrote: »

Seriously though, does anybody belive Quinniapc polls? They always have a few extra %'s for Obama. Like, always.

This is one of the better sites I've seen for polls. Covers all the polls.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

It covers the news papers as well. Interesting that McCain has a +10% lead in USA Today and +19% on Fox news (no surprise on the latter).

Lirange

Hobbes wrote: »

It covers the news papers as well. Interesting that McCain has a +10% lead in USA Today and +19% on Fox news (no surprise on the latter).

Had. Look at the dates.

banquo

Yeah, realclearpolitics is in my bookmarks! Excellent site.

Overheal

CNN has updated its electoral map:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/

Obama: 264 Delegates

McCain: 174 Delegates

To Win: 270 Delegates