Subtropical Storm Laura (11)

billy the squid

I see the NHC are now added an indicator to destinguish extratropical storms on their maps.

Here is Subtropical Storm Laura, forcast to become possibly a hurricane in the next 24 hours.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/290837.shtml?

gone soon

Next Sat, Sun could be interesting?

Mr Benevolent

That's not possible surely?

Danno

There have been many ex-hurricanes to visit these shores Confab.

Snowbie

Watching this one with interest.

http://www.irlweather.com/wxtropical.php

Although not quite expected to reach a hurricane now due to colder waters at higher latitudes it will be a strong SubTropical Storm. If and when it approaches our shores it will be a strong, possibly a severe storm off our NW coastline.
90% of models have it tracking towards and/or across the country.

As Hurricane Kyle burst through the Jet stream over Nova Scotia amplifying it north and towards us, it seems Laura splits the Jet(keeping the northern arm of the Jet and low pressure right down over us all week) and with also a strong Jet coming off the US eastern seaboard steering her towards Ireland.

However, to far away to be certain if tropical characteristic will be evident(lots of wind and rain) but could end up travelling to our north still with gales off the NW instead of storm force winds.
Worth watching this one very closely.

Big Tone

We will get it this Saturday/Sunday especially in NorthWestern areas of Ireland!

000
WTNT32 KNHC 300830
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM LAURA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122008
500 AM AST TUE SEP 30 2008

...LAURA MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE COLD WATERS OF THE NORTH
ATLANTIC...

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM LAURA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.0 WEST OR ABOUT 485
MILES...785 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A TURN
TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND LAURA MAY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY THURSDAY.

WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 220 MILES...350 KM FROM THE
CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...40.3 N...49.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

M.T. Cranium

The models have been having some difficulty assessing how strong the remnant low might be as it heads towards Scotland past Donegal on Saturday. One model even suggests that Laura's remnant would loop right back around towards Spain and that the storm for Ireland would drop southeast from Iceland in a phased action. Either way, it looks to be quite windy but some of the stronger winds seen on earlier model runs (gusting to 70 mph) have been downgraded. They might get upgraded again before it's all said and done. Also, there is quite a strong low on most models for about Tuesday following on behind this. Currently the seed for this would be found crossing the Great Lakes region in eastern Canada.

murfie

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

This site here i find really good, it has the 3 and 5 day models but it also has the various computer models individually on a chart. I just went through my first hurricane here in Texas, Ike, and if the tracking is right for this tropical storm you guys better get ready now!! I called my mum this morning to stock up on candles and get flashlights ready, my home house is in Mayo.
So keep a close eye on this, i have seen what these things can do, i live 20 min from Galveston and its not even got power or running water back after Ike which only had 60-90 mile hour winds at landfall!

Hal1

Sure isn't it only the westies that should be concerned at this becoming a threat . Here in the east, I would think were ok and we won't be rushing out to buy our candles and flashlights anytime soon. :pac:

murfie

Hal1 wrote: »

Sure isn't it only the westies that should be concerned at this becoming a threat . Here in the east, I would think were ok and we won't be rushing out to buy our candles and flashlights anytime soon. :pac:

Ha, I hope your right! sure you jackeens dont know what bad weather is!

Hal1

murfie wrote: »

Ha, I hope your right! sure you jackeens dont know what bad weather is!

No, unfortunately we don't . Give us a hurricane .

Damomanye

i dont feel like this is going to cause us any hassel.

LEIN

Just seen RTE weather and they say very unsettled wet and windy weather for weekend.

Wonder if they will give this event any more attention closer to the weekend.

Danno

Too true, we don't know much about storms here in the east, but how many here remember the Christmas storms of the late 90s? They did pack quite a punch.

According to the current GFS "Laura" passes between Donegal at 990 to 995hpa but not deepening to 975hpa until it hits coastal Norway, so a breezy day here by the looks of it so far.

I feel that the cooler than recent (by 2c to 3c) Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) will keep this one quiet enough.

Snowbie

As it's just in reliable time frame (18Z released 2230) will give a clearer indication of where Ex Laura will go. Atm the very N and NW of Ireland will have strongest winds, gales at most. Scotland will bear the brunt from this no doubt from a deep low pressure system.
All can change in the next few runs though as we have witnessed time and time again with the track moving south or moving harmlessly north.