Media-Luna, Balkanised Bolivia?

Kama

The whole Media Luna seperatist thing in Bolivia seems to have gone into crazy overdrive in the last while, with the seperatists making large territorial demands, and a fair whack of rioting and violence, with a bit of martial law thrown in. Anyone know the issue well? My understanding is that the richer provinces want greater autonomy towards outright secession to prevent any kind of redistribution to the poorer rest.

The Media Luna states are more prosperous, have much of the countires natural gas, are more white-mestizo than indigenous, and oppose Morales, whose main support is the poor indigenous. Which looks to me pretty straightforward Latin American race/class alignment. Morales was trying to centralise state control of the gas, diverting profits to an universal old age pension, the Media Luna states obviously would prefer to keep it.

Morales has been claiming US involvement backing the secessionists, and diplomats have been withdrawn. Interestingly, there are reports of the seperatists destroying the gas infrastructure.

More resource wars, anyone?

Kevster

In my opinion, Chavez's speeches about the USA are more interesting than Morales'. However, Morales does have to deal with the fact that his nation wants to split-up. I believe that this is all arising due to - yes- resources, but also because they are seeing that other territories in the world are still gaining independence (most recently: Serbia and South Ossetia).

DadaKopf

Kevster wrote: »

In my opinion, Chavez's speeches about the USA are more interesting than Morales'. However, Morales does have to deal with the fact that his nation wants to split-up. I believe that this is all arising due to - yes- resources, but also because they are seeing that other territories in the world are still gaining independence (most recently: Serbia and South Ossetia).

I wouldn't quite see it like that. What's happening in other Latin American countries has, historically, been of greater influence. What you have in Bolivia is a highly polarised class structure where you have a majority of very poor people and a small but politically powerful elite. The poor classes are highly organised along socialist lines, which really does ramp up the pressure for both sides. The elite is essentially a westernised, pro-USA political bloc and act as a conveyor belt for US interests - they smooth the entry of US corporations who dominate the country's extractive industries, for example. US commercial interests are US foreign policy interests, so it isn't a big leap to suspect US support for this move to seceed. This pattern is one of the constants of Latin America's political-economy.

I don't know of an example in recent Latin American history of secession. This is unprecedented; usually South American states are strongly federalised.

Seems to me it's a divide-and-rule tactic: up the level of violence to force a secession of a small, resource-wealthy province of Bolivia, neutralising the political opposition of the majority. This way, the minority would be a larger minority exploiting a numerically smaller exploited/excluded class. It would therefore be easier for the elite to disorganise the opposition and crush them by various means. With the exception of secession, this has all happened before. Chances are, its really a signal to Venezuela and Brazil to watch themselves or there'll be trouble. All because, for the first time since the 1970s, Latin America is standing up again. But we all know what happened the last time... Pinochet, anyone?

That said, it's a rediculous idea to secede; it'd be seen as a tiny, hostile country in a sea of larger countries dominated by Brazil and Venezuela (until their political fuel runs out).

If I'm right about being able to fairly compare the political dynamics of Bolivia with Venezuela and Argentina, the military is going to be absolutely critical to the outcome. But, to be honest, I don't know about the military's structure of alliegences.

Kama

Dunno how the military is aligned, or if it is. The Media Luna looks a little like it's going down the 'dirty war' route, effectively physical force in the area seems to have been de facto paramilitarised under the UJC. They have occupied most government structures, and assaulted indigenous organizations and other loyalists in their control zone. The military didn't stop them initially, but the order of force from Morales came in once they destroyed more of the resource infrastructure.

Crudely, this looks a bit to me like a classic Latin American rich agro-industrial oligarchic elites + boot boys on the ground approach, putting the foot down on the local poor. I'm generally sympathetic to movements for local autonomy, a *lot* less so when they embark on pogroms...

On Euronews No Comment you had footage of some of the rioting, with quite well-to-do privileged looking folks smashing shops and stealing tellys etc. I'm quite unsympathetic to the secessionists, it looks very much like an attempt by a priviliged elite to bait the government into a crackdown, then cry foul, but Morales has taken a national unity and democracy standpoint, and not responded with equal or greater force. Which seems a good initial position, but it depends how much the other side raise the ante.

Interestingly, the ejected ambassador, Goldberg, was Kosovo ambassador during Yugoslav Balkanization. Morales etc allege conspiracy to subvert the government, and probably aren't far wrong.