Oil Prices

Danno

Hi Folks, I am currently watching the oil price like a hawk to decide on when to fill up the tank for the winter.
I notice that today it is below $93 per barrel. How long does it take for this lower price to filter its way down to us the consumer.
What is the best way to monitor oil price to pump price?

Kind Regards
DANNO.

silverharp

its more complicated then that, oil may fall in price but so could the Euro, turn your thermo down, guaranteed to save you money

Danno

I know that the dollar to euro conversion has a part to play. But what is the best way of figuring out when the lower prices and how much lower they'll be get to us the consumer?

Say, today's $96 per barrel. When does that oil get sold here? Is it 3 weeks, 6 weeks???
Roughly what does $96 per barrel translate in to price per litre in Ireland? Current €/$ is 1/1.40.

xbox36016

naver it will go up and up and up and up and up and up and up and up and up and up

Zynks

Danno wrote: »

I know that the dollar to euro conversion has a part to play. But what is the best way of figuring out when the lower prices and how much lower they'll be get to us the consumer?

Say, today's $96 per barrel. When does that oil get sold here? Is it 3 weeks, 6 weeks???
Roughly what does $96 per barrel translate in to price per litre in Ireland? Current €/$ is 1/1.40.

Not that simple I am afraid. From the cost of crude oil all the way to heating oil/petrol/diesel there is a bunch of other factors that have impact on the prices, such as transport, insurance, refining, transport again, more insurance and taxes.... let alone other issues such as local competition and the fact that petrol station owners need to have a contingency in case the prices go up again.

Another thing: If I am not mistaken, the price we see on the news are for oil to be produced in the "future".

Recently when the downturn in oil prices started, there were almost immediate price reductions at the pumps, but in other occasions it took weeks or months for anything to happen.

But you do have a point that prices are likely to drop somewhat, but your guess is likely to be as good as anyone else's.

derry

Projections from less screwed up sources which are not married to these price gouging peak oil analists tend to show oil reserves are substansial and not running out for at least 50 years even with China and India coming on stream

So we are presently suffering a oil price spike induced on us to merely gouge us and the methods used are scare mongering Oil peak crap cutting refinery capacity and deliberatly reducing oil extraction with monbo jumbo technical issues and the dip sticks buying into the oil futures bubble just like the property market bubble

Expect the next few years sea saw up and down prices and then prices going down probably to ~$60 a barrel for at about ten years

The sudden economic jolts to the economic system might make oil slump in price for a few weeks but the lack of excess capacity coming into the winter might put prices back to $100 a barrel through the winter

The time lag for prices to drop is not going to be good i suspect as the oil companies know the stocks might be short through the winter and so they can afford to keep the prices higher for now as they wait for prices to climb back to $100 a barrel through the winter

Thats my guess for the winter prices

Derry

Zynks

Danno, I think this article might answer your original question:
http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/latest-news/motorists-still-not-gaining-full-benefit-of-drop-in-fuel-prices-1477391.html

derry

More evedence there is no real shortage of oil in the system only speculators pushing prices up with fears of the Iran contra USA fueling the problems

So from this outlet
http://www.financialexpress.com

we can see the articale direct from the OPEQ point of view

http://www.financialexpress.com/news/No-oil-shortage-in-markets-OPEC-chief/326935/


or from non wester news propaganda point of view

http://www.aljazeera.com/

we can seewhere they cant acually print the facts as facts they unlike western media will allow stuff which is forward projecting have section where thos e who wish to project concepts forward in time can do so having looked at the whole story figured who pulling the string and who benifits and what the most likely long term outcomes might be

Eg how the oil prices in the future can impact us joe soaps who fill up our tanks

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/newsfull.php?newid=139357



Derry

gixerfixer

There's plenty of oil to last another 300 odd years according to many experts

Time Magazine

gixerfixer wrote: »

There's plenty of oil to last another 300 odd years according to many experts

Link?

Time Magazine

derry wrote: »

we can see the articale direct from the OPEQ point of view

OPEC are a cartel that profit on people not investing in alternative technology. They say there's enough to last a while? That's not surprising.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/newsfull.php?newid=139357

Al Jazeera's Conspiracy theory's page is not a reputable source.

The_Minister

:rolleyes: to Derry

If we exploit coal-to-oil technology, we can have oil at c$100 dollars a barrel for the next 1000 years. That would cause massive pollution however.

The issue isn't that we are running out of oil, it's that we are running out of easily accessable oil. The more oil that is extracted from a well, the less there is in the well (well duh!); as the amount of oil shrinks it costs more and more to pump (technological advances have allowed us to access a greater percentage to the reserves though).

The problem is the end of cheap oil.

derry

David McWilliams wrote: »

OPEC are a cartel that profit on people not investing in alternative technology. They say there's enough to last a while? That's not surprising.


Al Jazeera's Conspiracy theory's page is not a reputable source.

I asure you many links from non opec sources exist that show there no reason to assume there is a oil shortage

My life is too short to be finding the multidue of these threads that I have seen and read about this issue over many years

AS boards forums is not University standards with millions of requirements for proof I will tell you what I know to be correct and leave it at that and those who wish can toddle of and find ther own links

As an envoirementalist type person nothing would please me better than to prove oil was running short

But in order to defeat the enemy in this case oil companies and OPEC supliers of fossil based fuel you need to bite the bullet and really know realisticaly what is the probable supplies of oil in total they have with which to defeat you with

Armed with correct information you have a higher probabilty to figure out their stratagy and and a better chance to make a program or stratergy that will defeat them

My own estimates are The oil known supplies today that oil companies have with reserves exceed 100 years possibly 200 years with China and India extra demands factored in

Reserves for me would mean up to 50% depleton still leaving 50% behind for fianal stage extraction

The probabilty is that we have done exploraton of maybe a lot less than 1% of the planet and various think tanks with some good egg heads estimate there is at least another 800 years supplies to be found

Based on this then it would seem logical to conclude any attempt to defeat the oil suppliers with alternitives are doomed unless the governments decide to tax oil at a greater rate than renewables

Only the Brazil government has seen this and succeeded to replace 50% oil with alternitives through tax penanties against oil imports

Peak oil types are often hod winked spoon fed with false oil reserves data and or hacks sometimes possibly working for the oil companies

It is much more in the oil companies interests to infer they are short for oil so as top keep prices higher and to ensure they own and control the data on reserves wherever possible

If us the joe soaps could really prove that 100 years supplies existed the price for oil would fall off a cliff and be more like $10 a barrel for the next 90 years

The stoneage didn't stop because we ran out of stones
The same for oil we can remove oil from energy requrements if we decide we will and plan replacemebts and only that reason will succeed



I must say that I wasnt aware Al Jazeera's had conpiracy section until a few days ago

Thats a intersting new policy for a media outlet so thats why I threw up that link

Just to give you a bone to chew on:pac::pac::pac:


Derry

silverharp

Derry - "My own estimates are The oil known supplies today that oil companies have with reserves exceed 100 years possibly 200 years with China and India extra demands factored in
Reserves for me would mea n up to 50% depleton still leaving 50% behind for fianal stage extraction"

Remember all reserves are not created equal, for instance the tar sands , or the Orinoco oil that has to be "mined" have very slow rates of production relative to their potential

One thing to watch out for is that there will be less oil for export as Opec countries are increasing internal consumption.

Some of the new finds for instance in Brazil, do not yet have the technology to extract it.

looing at any graph of production figures will show that more countries are entering decline, Mexico for instance may cease to be an exporter of oil within 3 years if their Canterel field depletion rates continue

derry

The_Minister wrote: »

:rolleyes: to Derry

If we exploit coal-to-oil technology, we can have oil at c$100 dollars a barrel for the next 1000 years. That would cause massive pollution however.

The issue isn't that we are running out of oil, it's that we are running out of easily accessable oil. The more oil that is extracted from a well, the less there is in the well (well duh!); as the amount of oil shrinks it costs more and more to pump (technological advances have allowed us to access a greater percentage to the reserves though).

The problem is the end of cheap oil.

I think I have supplied most of the reply in the above post no 13
But to restate it we have best I can figure at least 200 years supply of oil without exceeding 50% extraction from the present oil feilds
Thats even before even factoring in other solutions like final stage extraction or tar sands or coal /oil solutions whatever

What is true the easy oil to extract has largley dissapeared

Example when they find a new feild the first 10% requires 1 baarell of oil of energy to extract 20 barrels
Later one barrel of oil is required to extract a lesser 4 barrels

Later again one barrel requires 3 barrels of oil to extract

The average of all the oil feilds in all the world from old feilds to offshore feilds which require lots of enegry or barrels of oil inputs to extract the oil coupled with newwer feilds means the average is probably one barrel of oil is required to extract four barrels of oil

Even finding new fairely medium sized feilds in the near future wont change this average so much

Also Oil companies when prices are higher deliberatly extract oil from older feilds using more oil inputs and keep the newwer easier feilds in reserve for lean times ( Standard mining practice)

The result of this is the oil peakers will want to slant the data to show high oil energy inputs sooner to back the case

The oil companies as they do most all the drilling and extraction have acces to most of the data on oil reserves and often its in their interests to play down the reserves

From other feilds where data is more open for whatever reason such as controlled through goverments whatever reason the truer piture can be extrapolated

So we can expect present oil production to remain steady( not including wars or oil shortages from deliberate production cuts ) in most all its basic features for at least the next 50 years even including the increased demand from China and India

Therfore the the cheap oil world is still with us for a much longer period than most would like to admit to

There in is the the reason to to opt for alternitives and remove our dependence on oil

Basically the 30% of the oil is needed to get it to our houses or cars whatever

This is similar to alternitives which require a 30% energy input

So with Alternitives we can see off the strangle hold oil has on our econmy

But for ROI to that you need to import a Brazilian goverment to run the gaff

Brazil so far they are the only ones in the world that have shown that alternitives can match oil for price and can be done on much less land than food shortage scare mongers will admit too

So for ecomonic reasons It a no brainer for Ireland to tax the be jesus out of oil imports and employ lots of farmers to grow bio fuels on the 30% of the Irish land being paid from the EU to remain out of production
Also to make wind and wave power solutions

ROI can effectivily remove oil/gas from the energy equasion and make it a small minority fuel supplier

But with the oil companies in bed with the regime you got two chances to see it happen here in the ROI like Brazil did


Derry

leninbenjamin

derry wrote: »

ROI can effectivily remove oil/gas from the energy equasion and make it a small minority fuel supplier

But with the oil companies in bed with the regime you got two chances to see it happen here in the ROI like Brazil did

impossible. we don't have thousands upon thousands of acres of rainforest we can clear to create the necessary space for bio fuels.

derry

leninbenjamin wrote: »

impossible. we don't have thousands upon thousands of acres of rainforest we can clear to create the necessary space for bio fuels.

Rain forest clearring both in Brazil and ROI has nothin to do with bio fuels

Brazil is using only 2% of its countries space to produce nearly 50% of it energy needs

Brazil is a big country but it is well poipulatred not as mucn per square kilometer as ROI but still wel populated

ROI is 1/4 the population density of the UK so by EU standards is classed as as mostly empty compared to Holland

ROI only uses like 20% of it overall land to agriculture

Another big chunk is no use due to things like too boggy or too thin a top soil or is a lake

The rest consists of mountians which are not suitable for normal farming for food and other land for cites etc

There exists also what are classed as marginal land not normally farmed

The bottom sections of mountians can be used to grow quick growing tree 5 yearly crops that power stations can burn

Other even faster growing tree types ( bushes really )exist that give useful bio mass every year (annual crops)

The marginal land can grow bio mass such as long grasses that can make fuel for power stations or Ethanol(alcohol)

Some 30% of the food farm land presently is paid by the EU to grow nothing
Thats about 7% of the total Irish land which is scratching it ....... doing nothing

So even if we were only as good as similar land as Brazil with Ethanol production the 7% of the best land should nearly match the same as a similar region in Sqare kilometers as Brazil

Now the food is scarce crowd could blow trumpets food prices would rise but thats rubbish as the 7% of the land suitable for food production was doing sod all anyway

Many projections from oil companies will endevor to show that ROI CANT MAKE ANY USEFUL DENT TO OIL IMPORTS

BRAZIL HAS SHOWN THAT THE OIL COMPAANIES SPEAK WITH FORKED TOUNGUES

So ROI can make a usefull dent to to oil /gas imports possibly 25% without too much effort and maybe even higher than 50% with extra commitment from a new regime imported from Brazil who could make it work seeing as they are not oil company lovers

Then wind power can be ramped up and this can give an extra 25% of power consistantly if spread around all ROI as the wind pretty well alaways blows at some part of the ROI each day



Derry

Dimitri

Danno wrote: »

Hi Folks, I am currently watching the oil price like a hawk to decide on when to fill up the tank for the winter.
I notice that today it is below $93 per barrel. How long does it take for this lower price to filter its way down to us the consumer.
What is the best way to monitor oil price to pump price?

Kind Regards
DANNO.

It is unlikely that any drop in oil price per barrel will make any noticeable difference to the price you pay for the 100-1500 liters you'll need to fill the heating tank. As another poster pointed out there are numerous factors like transport costs and profit margins to be considered. Also Maxol and topaz are the main importers of oil into ireland and from what i can see tend to not want to compete too much with each other. Most if not all the oil sellers in the country are getting their oil off of these two which leaves little room for competition. Therfore even if if the cost price should fall the big two can maintain prices and watch their margins increase. If ya want my advice get down to your local builders providers and try drive a good deal on a bit of insulation, its theonly place where prices are falling at the moment!

Zynks

leninbenjamin wrote: »

impossible. we don't have thousands upon thousands of acres of rainforest we can clear to create the necessary space for bio fuels.

The vast majority of the sugar cane plantations in terms of area in Brazil comes the Northeast of the country (more specifically from the states of Alagoas and Pernambuco), far away from the rain forest.

However, the highest productivity area is in the state of São Paulo, which is is the Southeast of the country, even further away...

Sugarcane plantations and production of alcohol or sugar in the Northern states (where the rainforest is) is negligible.

Now that the rainforest issue is clarified (I am just tired of people pointing at others' acts with dirty fingers), here is an idea that might be worth looking at: bog areas might be very suitable for sugar cane plantation. The main cane production soil in Brazil is rather poor, and machinery could be adapted to handle the bog surface.

derry

Zynks wrote: »

...snip

..... here is an idea that might be worth looking at: bog areas might be very suitable for sugar cane plantation. The main cane production soil in Brazil is rather poor, and machinery could be adapted to handle the bog surface.

Interesting info didn't know the finer details

Instead to be importing Brazilians for menial work in butcher shops maybe we could import the sugar cane growers and give them big chunks of these low quality marginal semi boggy land to farm with sugar cane

then we could leave the 30% Irish top quality land which is doing sod all keep doing bugger all if that's what keep the regime happy

Then we could drive our cars on cheaper bio fuels and heat our houses and send oil companies packing just like the Brazilans have succeeded to do:cool:

Might also improve the Irish football team and give us some hot Brazilan pom pom girls to rev us up with:D

Viva Brazil


Derry

leninbenjamin

Zynks wrote: »

Now that the rainforest issue is clarified (I am just tired of people pointing at others' acts with dirty fingers),

fair enough, but all i was trying to point out is the Brazil as a state has much more land and less population density than wee do. they can grow it on a scale that's economically viable, we can't.

Zynks

leninbenjamin wrote: »

fair enough, but all i was trying to point out is the Brazil as a state has much more land and less population density than wee do. they can grow it on a scale that's economically viable, we can't.

Well, not exactly. As I mentioned above, the most productive state in Brazil is São Paulo, producing 60% of the national sugar cane output - it is also the industrial, financial and services centre of the country. It has 20% of the population, 2.9% of the area (as in less than 1/30) and produces 39.6% of the GDP.

The higher sugar cane production is due to the availability of investment, infrastructure, equipment and far less draught than in the Northeast of the country.

Now, looking at the demographics:
São Paulo State

• Population 40 m

• Area 250k km2

• Density 160/km2

Ireland

• Population 4 m

• Area 70k km2

• Density 57/km2

Based on these figures, I don't see why population density should be an issue.

SoCal90046

Zynks wrote: »

Now that the rainforest issue is clarified (I am just tired of people pointing at others' acts with dirty fingers), here is an idea that might be worth looking at: bog areas might be very suitable for sugar cane plantation. The main cane production soil in Brazil is rather poor, and machinery could be adapted to handle the bog surface.

Are you suggesting bog areas in Ireland? Would the climate be right for sugar cane in Ireland? It grows best in tropical or subtropical climates.

Zynks

SoCal90046 wrote: »

Are you suggesting bog areas in Ireland? Would the climate be right for sugar cane in Ireland? It grows best in tropical or subtropical climates.

I started thinking about that when a gardener proved to me that you could successfully plant olive trees in Ireland. Olive trees grow natively in hot and dry weather, so logically Ireland was not a good place.

What he did was dig a whole and filled it with sand to ensure good drainage, then he put soil over the sand and planted the trees. Months later they were growing strongly...

Olive trees are far more sensitive and demanding than sugar cane, which thrives in rather poor conditions. I have bamboo trees in my garden which grow in similar conditions to sugar cane. They grow very well in Ireland though they require more fertile and wet soil than sugar cane.

I am not 100% sure it would work, but it would be an interesting experiment. The energy you can extract from sugar cane is impressive, so it could be very lucrative if it proved possible.

I am sure there are other angles I may be missing, but technically I think it might be feasible.

SoCal90046

Zynks wrote: »

I started thinking about that when a gardener proved to me that you could successfully plant olive trees in Ireland. Olive trees grow natively in hot and dry weather, so logically Ireland was not a good place.

What he did was dig a whole and filled it with sand to ensure good drainage, then he put soil over the sand and planted the trees. Months later they were growing strongly...

Olive trees are far more sensitive and demanding than sugar cane, which thrives in rather poor conditions. I have bamboo trees in my garden which grow in similar conditions to sugar cane. They grow very well in Ireland though they require more fertile and wet soil than sugar cane.

I am not 100% sure it would work, but it would be an interesting experiment. The energy you can extract from sugar cane is impressive, so it could be very lucrative if it proved possible.

I am sure there are other angles I may be missing, but technically I think it might be feasible.

It would surprise me if sugar cane were to grow as successfully in Ireland as it does in Brazil. Bamboo grows in many parts of the world, but I suspect it grows more slowly in Ireland than in, say, the southern part of the US. How about sugar beets? They grow in Ireland.

wasper

Danno wrote: »

Hi Folks, I am currently watching the oil price like a hawk to decide on when to fill up the tank for the winter.
I notice that today it is below $93 per barrel. How long does it take for this lower price to filter its way down to us the consumer.
What is the best way to monitor oil price to pump price?

Kind Regards
DANNO.

While you are waiting for the miracle to happen, you will freeze to death.

Zynks

Hey Danno,
Have you noticed any changed in prices yet? Petrol pumps have gone down a fair bit in the last two weeks.

mike65

Prices are down 7 cents typically, it seems.

This of course gives the government the perfect opportunity to put up excise duty by say 10 cents in the budget.

Mike