Discussion on peak oil

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Listen: http://pixelcorps.cachefly.net/pote/potn_005_aud.mp3

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In the interview, André Angelantoni referred to the impact of oil price rises on the US economy.

Ireland consumes about 70 million bbl of oil per annum. Oil going from $70 (average price in 2007) to $106, where it stands this evening, will result in an additional $2.5 billion leaving the Irish economy. This will be a recurring figure every year, increasing as time passes, as oil prices increase with the excess of demand over supply.

The PV of these future outflows would buy an incredible amount of renewable energy systems, grid connectivity with the rest of Europe, rail electrification, etc etc. These renewable systems would have a typical shelf life of 30 or so years.

A serious commitment to renewable energy is a no-brainer!

A few of André's webistes (and sites he appears to be connected with):

Blog: http://www.clubofpioneers.com/blog/blog-from-andre-angelantoni/14/
http://www.postpeakliving.com/
http://www.inspiringgreenleadership.com/
http://www.energyfarms.net/
http://www.theoildrum.com/

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derry

Some less off the wall links that spell out the majority of the facts with less anlges on the end is nigh

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves

http://www.absoluteastronomy.com/topics/Hubbert_peak_theory


below an interesting egg head from Stanford

http://sepwww.stanford.edu/sep/jon/world-oil.dir/lynch/worldoil.html


oil senarios site takes more upbeat slant on the issues

http://www.oilscenarios.info/andygriffith.htm

news articale say oil is not running out

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/natural_resources/article3207311.ece




First rule is you make much more money if a product is in short supply and demand is high

Second rule is if your product is abundant it is better to try to prove the product is scarce to make more money

So recently a bunch of egg heads figuted out the total amont of bio mass that ever existed in history of the earth over millions and millions of years



They then figured how much bio mass got trapped in suitable underground structures underground

They then caluculated the total amount of turf lignite coal. coal tar , gas, oil etc that was formed in all the swamps of the past history and how much got through to survive in todays world


They then calculated how much should exist to be found

The results were in line with known reserves

Typicaly for USA they have well in excess of 1000 years of proven reserves of coal

The egg heads showed that to be the case and even more again was to be found possibly 10,000 years reserves of coal exist

I wont go through all the gory data for all the Bio mass left over products

Basically they show we haven't even found 10% of the oil out there
Its more like 1% as
They showed at present consumption trends (which includes China and India) there is probably eneogh oil to last a 1000 years

Natural gas reserves a whole lot bigger than that again


Which all fits the piture

If an oil company found say a huge oil field eneogh to keep the word going for 100 years the price of oil would fall of a cliff for 90 years

All mining companies only want to find 30 years of raw material in advance
More than that risks a price drop

That's eneogh reserves to make plans for extraction raise capital
and plan pipe lines to refineries etc

So Oil companies who find big oil Fields tend to keep the numbers close to their chests

If it suits them they employ a lot of dip stick scientists to start predicting the end the end is nigh

Then oil companies from Russia say oil reserves are not as good as we thought

Then Oil companies in middle east say we cant stand over these numbers the oil reserves seem a lot less than expected

And soon all the oil fields world wide start to sing the same tune the end is nigh

Then oil refineries decide to moth ball or do major maintinance projects and refinery capaciity drops

The result the oil products get scarce the price spikes for a few years at much higher prices

Then when alternitives like solar or wind power or similar start to become interesting the switch is made
The oil industry then bury the alternitives to oil with cheap oil products for 15 years

The oil refineries up production

the oil companies come back false alarm we found new oil feilds to be much bigger than expected

Found reserves to be much more abundant than we thought

And the price of oil drops again


A few years later the alternitives to oil are now toooooo expensive and the jo public with short memories don't want to pay more for alternitives to oil

Alternitives to oil go the way of the DODO

And so the cycle will continue for another hundred years of oil spikes with oil abundance for decades followed with spikes

Unless the governments decide to stop the cycle oil boom bust cycle and premote alternitives to stop this all out oil industry enslavement of the dip stick jo public

And so we now know why brown envelopes rule the roost and the oil companies use brown envelopes like confettie in the right places so as to help oil companies to keep their grip on things


Here is a list off pessimistic predictive failures through history that were completly wrong

original link posted quote below for relevant info

http://www.rcgroups.com/forums/showpost.php?p=9760637&postcount=1

Quote " (edited to suit )

Let's look at some environmentalist predictions that they would prefer we forget.


In 1968, Professor Paul Ehrlich, Vice President Gore's hero and mentor, predicted there would be a major food shortage in the U.S. and "in the 1970s ... hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death." Ehrlich forecasted that 65 million Americans would die of starvation between 1980 and 1989, and by 1999 the U.S. population would have declined to 22.6 million.
Ehrlich's predictions about England were gloomier: "If I were a gambler, I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000."

In 1972, a report was written for the Club of Rome warning the world would run out of gold by 1981, mercury and silver by 1985, tin by 1987 and petroleum, copper, lead and natural gas by 1992. Gordon Taylor, in his 1970 book "The Doomsday Book," said Americans were using 50 percent of the world's resources and "by 2000 they [Americans] will, if permitted, be using all of them." In 1975, the Environmental Fund took out full-page ads warning, "The World as we know it will likely be ruined by the year 2000."

Harvard University biologist George Wald in 1970 warned, "... civilization will end within 15 or 30 years unless immediate action is taken against problems facing mankind." That was the same year that Sen. Gaylord Nelson warned, in Look Magazine, that by 1995 "... somewhere between 75 and 85 percent of all the species of living animals will be extinct."

It's not just latter-day doomsayers who have been wrong; doomsayers have always been wrong. In 1885, the U.S. Geological Survey announced there was "little or no chance" of oil being discovered in California, and a few years later they said the same about Kansas and Texas. In 1939, the U.S. Department of the Interior said American oil supplies would last only another 13 years. In 1949, the Secretary of the Interior said the end of U.S. oil supplies was in sight. Having learned nothing from its earlier erroneous claims, in 1974 the U.S. Geological Survey advised us that the U.S. had only a 10-year supply of natural gas. The fact of the matter, according to the American Gas Association, there's a 1,000 to 2,500 year supply. "

End quote

Last week an Irish exploration company found a large gas field in Texas a state that was soppossed to be all washed up



Derry