UK car sales collapse

Stevie Dakota

Has there ever been a better time to buy in the Uk?

UK car market slumps to 'worst since 1966'
Credit crunch, spiralling oil prices, fragile consumer confidence... It's small wonder that the UK's car market is in turmoil. Figures just out confirm that buyers are shunning dealerships in droves – with the slowest August since 1966.

The news is further confirmation that 2008 is shaping up to be the toughest year of the decade. Trade forecasts are now being cut, predicting new-car sales of 2.26 million this year and just 2.16m in 2009. That's right: it's going to get worse before it gets better...

Why Britain's car market is slumping
August is traditionally the slowest month in the calendar, taking just 3 percent of sales as buyers hang out for the new registration letter in September. But even so, just 63,225 new car sales in one of western Europe's biggest car markets is alarming.

That represents a drop of 19 percent on last August and the UK's car market is running at 4 percent down on last year. 'The slowdown in the UK mirrors the difficult conditions being experienced across the main European markets,' said Paul Everitt, chief executive of trade body the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders.

The bosses of the companies he represents might put it a bit blunter. This is a slowdown of epic proportions after several years of booming car sales earlier in the decade.

Is it all gloom and doom?
It's not all bad news. Supermini volumes are up and they now account for a third of the new-car market, according to the SMMT figures. And – in a sign that sky-high pump prices are continuing to affect buyer behaviour – the share of diesel models has jumped again to 44 percent of all purchases.

CAR Online has analysed the latest figures to see which brands are sinking and soaring in a tough 2008. The following are the best- and worst-performing big name manufacturers who've posted double-digit percentage rises or falls:

THE WINNERS – UK sales volumes increases, year-to-date 2008


Chevrolet +13 percent
Daihatsu +15 percent
Dodge +54 percent
Jaguar +12 percent
Kia +25 percent
Lotus +11 percent
Nissan +16 percent
Smart +105 percent
Volvo +20 percent


THE LOSERS - UK sales volumes falls, year-to-date 2008


Aston Martin -26 percent
Bentley -18 percent
Chrysler -20 percent
Citroen -13 percent
Honda -10 percent
Jeep -20 percent
Land Rover -16 percent
Lexus -24 percent
Peugeot -13 percent
Porsche -27 percent
Renault -16 percent
Saab -25 percent
Suzuki -13 percent

alias no.9

Winners and loosers eh? All the winners with the exception of Nissan will have made their gains on top of a trivial base and so are irrelevant in the greater scheme of things. Similarly, the losers with the exception of the French manufacturers, will account for a trivial amount of the market. Aston Martin down 26%, what does that mean, that their volumes are down by 13 cars or something?

Zonda999

Dodge, +54%:eek::eek:.

r3nu4l

Looks like the Germans maintained steady business

Omcd

For the losers that has to Smart ! I wonder did those 13 not to be Aston Martin buyers go buy Smarts intead

junkyard

It's much the same here but nobody wants to make the first move and admit it. I haven't sold a car since March and there's nobody breaking my door down with enquiries either. It's just as well I don't rely on them or it would be lean times ahead for sure, the markets dead and I don't see any life in it for a long time to come.

RedorDead

The September figures this time next month will be a much better indicator. September is one of their reg plate change months. I wouldnt read too much into the August figures. Its like reading lots into the Irish December figures.

copacetic

alias no.9 wrote: »

Winners and loosers eh? All the winners with the exception of Nissan will have made their gains on top of a trivial base and so are irrelevant in the greater scheme of things. Similarly, the losers with the exception of the French manufacturers, will account for a trivial amount of the market. Aston Martin down 26%, what does that mean, that their volumes are down by 13 cars or something?

rubbish.
Volvo are hardly trivial of the winners and Honda, Saab, Lexus and Land Rover are hardly a trivial part of the market. On top of Pegueot, Renault and Citroen that you simply dismiss as an 'exception'.

That is 7 major uk brands all struggling. eh?

RedorDead wrote: »

The September figures this time next month will be a much better indicator. September is one of their reg plate change months. I wouldnt read too much into the August figures. Its like reading lots into the Irish December figures.

You can always read a lot into these things when you have previous years to go on. September will be as bad if not worse compared to the same month last year.

Newcarneeded

junkyard wrote: »

It's much the same here but nobody wants to make the first move and admit it. I haven't sold a car since March and there's nobody breaking my door down with enquiries either. It's just as well I don't rely on them or it would be lean times ahead for sure, the markets dead and I don't see any life in it for a long time to come.

Christ Junkyard, no sales in five months? What level of stock do you hold? Is it just a part time gig and you have another source of income? I hope so man, that's a horrendous death of the market altogether.

I know from reading on here that the market is slow but no sales in five months, that is truly a dead market.

I've heard differing opinions on the state of the economy but I really think we're in for tough tough times. Can you imagine if there's truth in the Dell to sell Limerick factory rumour? I'm not sure how many people they employ down there but if Dell pulled out i'd say there'd be a lot of dealers, restaurants shops down there that'd fail too.

I really hope our leaders have a good plan to get us out of this mess.

Guy:Incognito

Zonda999 wrote: »

Dodge, +54%:eek::eek:.

I'd imagine it's up 54% of very few tbh.

ninty9er

Newcarneeded wrote: »

Christ Junkyard, no sales in five months? What level of stock do you hold? Is it just a part time gig and you have another source of income? I hope so man, that's a horrendous death of the market altogether.

I know from reading on here that the market is slow but no sales in five months, that is truly a dead market.

I've heard differing opinions on the state of the economy but I really think we're in for tough tough times. Can you imagine if there's truth in the Dell to sell Limerick factory rumour? I'm not sure how many people they employ down there but if Dell pulled out i'd say there'd be a lot of dealers, restaurants shops down there that'd fail too.

I really hope our leaders have a good plan to get us out of this mess.

Dell employs 3000 directly, 1000 less than the peak a few years ago. there are probably 1500 spin off jobs, of which 700 would no longer be viable without Dell. That said over 100,000 live in the greater Limerick area (if you could call it that) so although 3,000 is a big number, it is by no means a large percentage of the employment available.

Cars are selling slowly anyway, and the most likely thing to happen is that Dell take their name off it and someone else runs it and sells the end product to Dell. If Dell did close, it would probably only impact about 50 new car sales.

L-M

Zonda999 wrote: »

Dodge, +54%:eek::eek:.

Ya, lol, as stekelly says, i imagine it's up from 2 sales to four kinda thing.

testicle

Newcarneeded wrote: »

Can you imagine if there's truth in the Dell to sell Limerick factory rumour? I'm not sure how many people they employ down there but if Dell pulled out i'd say there'd be a lot of dealers, restaurants shops down there that'd fail too.

Dell are selling all their factories.

500ml

Bit more on it from the Guardian:

Sales of new cars in the UK slumped by almost a fifth last month to produce the worst August for the industry since 1966.

Top marques were among those hardest hit, with sales of BMWs down almost 40% compared with the same month in 2007, Jaguar down 41%, Land Rover almost 58% lower and Mercedes-Benz recording a drop of 35%, according to figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders.

Sales of small cars held up better, with cars such as the Vauxhall Corsa (the month's top seller), the Ford Fiesta and the Mini increasing that segment's share of the market from just under 30% to almost 34%.

Sales in the mini segment - usually cars with two doors and engines of less than one litre - increased, doubling the sector's market share.

The move towards smaller, more fuel-efficient cars suggests that buyers are becoming meaner and greener in the face of the economic slowdown.

New car sales so far this year are down 3.8% overall but have fallen by more than 10% over the past three months.

Commenting on the 18.6% fall in new car registrations in August, Paul Everitt, the chief executive of the SMMT, said: "August is one of the quietest months for the new car market but this year was the lowest since 1966 with only 63,225 registrations. The slowdown mirrors the difficult conditions being experienced across the main European markets.

"The industry is encouraged by the growing interest in lower carbon cars but is concerned by the reluctance of consumers to commit to major purchases. There is a clear need for sustained action by government to boost the economy and restore confidence."

The SMMT said it expected sales to fall by around 10% - some 85,000 vehicles - over the final four months of the year. It has cut its forecast for sales in 2008 from 2.31 million to 2.26 million and from 2.23 million to 2.16 million for 2009.

Demand from private buyers continued to fall sharply - down by almost a quarter last month - as the impact of economic uncertainty continues to bite.

Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at Global Insight, said: "Sharply deteriorating car sales is a further clear sign that consumers are increasingly cutting back on their spending.

"Many consumers are doing this out of necessity due to squeezed purchasing power but it is also likely that many are retrenching out of choice, reflecting serious concerns about the economic situation and outlook."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/sep/04/creditcrunch.retail

woop

junkyard wrote: »

It's much the same here but nobody wants to make the first move and admit it. I haven't sold a car since March and there's nobody breaking my door down with enquiries either. It's just as well I don't rely on them or it would be lean times ahead for sure, the markets dead and I don't see any life in it for a long time to come.

jesus you like youre recession

junkyard

Well there's a simple solution to it, cut taxes and keep the ecomomy rolling and people in jobs but from what I've read in the papers today the FF solution is to up taxes, can you believe it??? Every single economist interviewed on the radio in the past few days has advised against this move but these FF idiots think they know best, I just don't know how these guys are left in charge, I really don't.............:rolleyes:

mikemac

junkyard wrote: »

Well there's a simple solution to it, cut taxes and keep the ecomomy rolling and people in jobs but from what I've read in the papers today the FF solution is to up taxes, can you believe it??? Every single economist interviewed on the radio in the past few days has advised against this move but these FF idiots think they know best, I just don't know how these guys are left in charge, I really don't.............:rolleyes:

Not as simple as that my friend but you probably know more about economics then me.
Sure cut taxes but the money might leave the country on imports, cars, foreign apartments and holidays, etc. Some benefit to the exchequer but not a huge amount (I am aware how much motorists are taxed)

If they raise taxes they get more money immediately. Maybe it's a better solution then cutting taxes and maybe it's not. I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss it, after all it's the senior advisors in Dept of Finance who come with these policies and it's up the ministers to decide what to implement. It wasn't dreamed up

Guy:Incognito

Is this more a consumer confidence thing than an actual lack of money? I doubt theres anywhere near the low level of cash floating around as there was in the 80's either here or in the UK.The lowest car sales since 66 has to point ot something more than just a downturn in the economy.

ninty9er

Stekelly wrote: »

Is this more a consumer confidence thing than an actual lack of money? I doubt theres anywhere near the low level of cash floating around as there was in the 80's either here or in the UK.The lowest car sales since 66 has to point ot something more than just a downturn in the economy.

I think it has a lot to do with uncertainty about which way the central bank will go on interest rates. 0.25% can be a lot of money depending on the initial borrowings.

Guy:Incognito

ninty9er wrote: »

0.25% can be a lot of money depending on the initial borrowings.

Not really when we are comparing to the 15% (or was it more) interest rates in the 80's though. I assume he Uk were on similar rates to ourselves at the worst times? If that wasnt stopping people buying cars I dont see why less than half that should be.

copacetic

From todays business post, figures for Ireland in August:

Car sales in the slow lane
Sunday, September 07, 2008 By Ferdia O’Dowd
New car sales fell by 41.6 per cent in August, totalling 5,252 units, against 8,991 new cars sold in the same month last year.

So far this year, 2008 sales are running 16.7 per cent below those of last year. This year’s figure stands at 145,643 units, while last year’s figure was 174,866 cars at the end of eight months. Sales of light commercial vehicles, always a reflection of economic activity, fell by nearly 65 per cent, most likely due to the stall in construction.

During the month of August, Toyota led the way, with 581 sales, followed by VW with 507 units and Ford with 483. BMW, with its Efficient Dynamics low emissions technology, took fourth place, just one car behind Ford, with 482 sales.

ninty9er

Stekelly wrote: »

Not really when we are comparing to the 15% (or was it more) interest rates in the 80's though. I assume he Uk were on similar rates to ourselves at the worst times? If that wasnt stopping people buying cars I dont see why less than half that should be.

Because 19% (yes it did hit 19% around '87) of £15,000 is different kettle of fish to 6% of €400,000. Increases of 0.25% can mean upwards of €200 per month for some people.

RedorDead

Just found the August and year to date figures on SMMT.co.uk

Makes for interesting reading.

Audi, BMW, Jaguar, Lotus, M-B and Volvo all up

Peugeot sell more than Toyota! :eek:

Strange to see the japs doing so poor.

Their market is down only 3.8% on last year to the end of August

leeroybrown

I don't see why anyone is particularly surprised and I don't see it going away any time soon.

The UK and Irish economies both have issues. Mortgage repayments are up significantly with no sign of a drop. Lots of people, particularly families, are putting their cash surplus on deposit in case of problems. Plenty of people have been laid off in the last year or so. Lots of workers with demand based hours and pay are out of pocket. It makes logical sense to hang onto your car for a few years longer in that situation. For most people a new car would be one of the first things to go.

It's compounded by the miserly trade in values that dealers with full yards have to offer for most cars and the fact that the huge car sales in recent years mean that most people who would have bought in normal circumstances already have a reasonably new car.

galwaytt

well, yes commercial vehicle sales (bread & butter to us) are down about 40% here this year. The interesting part is that the reason is not lack of demand - it's banks not giving finance.

Our b & b is refrigerated vehicles - and no-one has stopped eating food yet, so no change in demand there, then. Also, the huge increase in recent year of contract hire has seen those fleet companies cutting back, as their clients are simply handing back the keys at the end of the lease, rather then renewing the lease/new vehicle.

The problem is banks. They caused the market to expand to the volume it (was) is, by dint of accessible credit. The first **** up to come along on their radar - refinance etc of mortgages, which is entirely poor judgement on their behalf, don't forget - and what do they do to recoup losses ? Put a hold on 'ordinary' credit, and make us pay for their ineptitude.

Ditto the ECB. Times getting tough, money getting tight for families, people not spending enough to keep the economy running, and what do they do ? Put up interest rates so that they have...........even less to spend. On anything.

Well, it's time for the Central Bank, and Government, to make a decision for Ireland, IN Ireland. FUBAR'd economy in Germany? Hoik the German rates, not ours. Overheating in France - lower theirs. Need to stimulate ours - drop ours. To think that there would ever be a one-solution fits all is just complete and utter bonkers. And I'm Pro-Euro person, tbh........

copacetic

galwaytt wrote: »

Well, it's time for the Central Bank, and Government, to make a decision for Ireland, IN Ireland. FUBAR'd economy in Germany? Hoik the German rates, not ours. Overheating in France - lower theirs. Need to stimulate ours - drop ours. To think that there would ever be a one-solution fits all is just complete and utter bonkers. And I'm Pro-Euro person, tbh........

not sure i get this, are you saying we should leave the euro?

galwaytt

copacetic wrote: »

not sure i get this, are you saying we should leave the euro?

Gosh no, quite the contrary. What I am saying is it's time to make some noise at the table - and there's enough other small economies hurting as well, who can help us.

What I am saying is it's time for us to lead, rather than follow. We too often see ourselves as taking what Europe gives us, which for a while, is exactly what we needed - now, however, we are in a position to lead.......so time to stand up and be counted.

copacetic

galwaytt wrote: »

Gosh no, quite the contrary. What I am saying is it's time to make some noise at the table - and there's enough other small economies hurting as well, who can help us.

What I am saying is it's time for us to lead, rather than follow. We too often see ourselves as taking what Europe gives us, which for a while, is exactly what we needed - now, however, we are in a position to lead.......so time to stand up and be counted.

ok, but you can't change interest rates country by country when everyone has a shared currency.

peasant

wrong forum, really