Hurricane Gustav (7)

sirpsycho

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND
A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL BE MOVING
NEAR OR OVER HAITI ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
GUSTAV COULD BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO MOVING OVER LAND.

Mothman

And somewhat following in the foot steps of Fay and we thought we had flooding.

Fay dumped huge amounts of rain in this region, up to 30 inches in parts of Florida and I assume they could do without Gustav visiting same area.

Hal1

Fay continues to dump rain, see rain totals here for regions affected. Meanwhile Gustav's track for 3 days:


And expected wind speeds in 120 hours:

Neamhshuntasach

I'll be in Miami when it hits if it follows that projected path.

electric69

Oh F*cking joy. Just what we need :mad::mad:

The flood waters are still rising here and its been getting worse since Sunday.
Lots of houses destroyed by the tornado's as they rolled on through us.And the 30 inches of rain doesnt help either.The storm drains couldnt take all the water and the sewage system backed-up onto the streets.... not the most pleasant thing. beaches got completly washed away and they only got repaired back at the end of last year costing millions.

And all that wasnt even from a hurricane :mad:

Mothman

Will be hurricanse at next advisory

maquiladora

Some of the latest runs have it going south of Cuba and shooting the channel. Could be a nasty one once it enters the GOM...

maquiladora

HURRICANE GUSTAV TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
220 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008


REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
GUSTAV HAS BECOME A HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/HR. THIS CHANGE WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE 5 AM EDT ADVISORY.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA




Uh oh...

forkassed

:eek:Potential disaster:eek:

Issued in New Orleans...A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED BT STORMKATS WEATHER OFFICE CONCERNING GUSTAV..WE HAVE 2 SCENARIOS WE CAN SEE GOING ON WITH GUSTAV RIGHT NOW IT COULD TAKE....SCENARIO #1 THERE IS A TROUGH INFLUENCING GUSTAV FROM THE ATLANTIC CAUSING IT TO MOVE ON A MORE NW PATH..IF GUSTAV TAKES THIS PATH IT WILL DEFINITELY PASS OVER MORE OF CUBA AND IT WOULD EMERGE OUT INT0 THE GOM AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM JUST WEST OF KEY WEST.....HOWEVER IF IT TAKES SCENARIO #2 AS THE TROUGH MISSES GUSTAV AND THE HIGH BUILDS IN OVER FLA AND CUBA FORCING GUSTAV TO MISS CENTRAL CUBA AND FORCING IT MORE OVER WESTERN CUBA OR BETWEEN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND EMERGES OUT IN THE GOM AS A CAT 3 HURRICANE...WE DONT WANT THIS TO HAPPEN ITS NOT GOOD FOR US..THE STT IN THAT PART OF THE GOM ARE NEAR 90 DEGREES WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR GUSTAV TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY AND BECOME A POSSIBLE CAT 5 HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES ITS TARGET SOMEWHERE ALONG THE GULF COAST..ITS JUST TO EARLY TO TELL THERE IS A STRONG TROUGH SET TO ROLL ON DOWN SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK..WILL THAT HAVE A STRONG EFFECT PULLING GUSTAV ON A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK..WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE FOLKS ITS JUST TO EARLY TO CALL...THE BEST ADVICE I CAN GIVE THE PEOPLE ON THE NORTHERN GULFCOAST IS TO CHECK ALL EMERGENCY SUPPLIES AND TO IMPLEMENT A PLAN OF ACTION IN CASE GUSTV HEADS OUR WAY ...FOLKS THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WE HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH IT AND JUST HOPE GUSTAV DOES NOT PARRALELL CUBA .....IF IT DOES THIS WE HAVE A SERIOUS SITUATION DEVELOPING AND WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH IT CLOSELY..HOPEFULLY IT TAKES SCENARIO #1 AND IS ONLY A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES JUST WEST OF KEY WEST....I WILL KEEP YOU INFORMED ..THIS HAS BEEN A SPECIAL WEATHER ADVISORY FROM THE STORMKATS WEATHER OFFICE IN NEW ORLEANS LA.....StormKat

maquiladora

"stormkat's weather office".... :rolleyes: yeah...

forkassed

maquiladora wrote: »

"stormkat's weather office".... :rolleyes: yeah...

I think its this fella

http://abc26.trb.com/news/weather/abc26-newsteam-katz,0,4054132.story

Bruce Katz
ABC26 Chief Meteorologist

Bruce is the only Chief Meteorologist who is a native New Orleanian who's lived his whole life in south Louisiana, spending the past 18 years predicting severe storms here.

Supercell

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/270251.shtml?

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

That is just an unbelieveable amount of rain to fall.
Looks like our petrol prices are going to go up again as a result of this storm.

maquiladora

Early days yet but the models are going to give some people in New Orleans something to worry about...

tomcosgrave

Uh oh...NOAA seem to be predicting that Gustav will be headed bang on for New Orleans by Monday. They do say that days 4 and 5 of the forecast are prone to errors by 300 miles, but still.

Not sure if any of you read the Weather Underground blog by Jeff Masters (site founder and ex NOAA Hurricane Hunter) but he is saying (see here) that the conditions in the Gulf of Mexico are very similar indeed to those in 2005, when a warm patch of water off Louisiana provided fuel for Katrina which saw it jump from a Cat3 to a Cat5 cyclone.

This does not look good, I have to say...

maquiladora

tomcosgrave wrote: »

Uh oh...NOAA seem to be predicting that Gustav will be headed bang on for New Orleans by Monday. They do say that days 4 and 5 of the forecast are prone to errors by 300 miles, but still.

Not sure if any of you read the Weather Underground blog by Jeff Masters (site founder and ex NOAA Hurricane Hunter) but he is saying (see here) that the conditions in the Gulf of Mexico are very similar indeed to those in 2005, when a warm patch of water off Louisiana provided fuel for Katrina which saw it jump from a Cat3 to a Cat5 cyclone.

This does not look good, I have to say...

It's way, way too early to try and decide on exactly where landfall will be, could be anywhere from texas to the florida panhandle.

Euro model is also developing 95L into a hurricane that could threaten florida.

sirpsycho

Cat2 now and gaining str at a quick rate, 40mph increase in a few hours.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT GUSTAV IS
STRENGTHENING QUICKLY AND IT COULD BECOME A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE AT ANY TIME BEFORE REACHING CUBA. FURTHER STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

Good blog on it here.

Danno

Watch the dollar per barrel match the mph of this storm next week. :mad:

sirpsycho

aye, gonna fill the tank up today.

Snowbie

Gustav now a Cat3 115mph sustained winds.

Forecast track takes it over the flatter terrain of western Cuba with little or no weakening and then up into the GOM. From the Florida panhandle to Texas is a threat from hurricane force winds with a Louisiana land fall most likely atm.

Snowbie

Cat4 145mph winds around the eye. Still just south of Cuba.

rc28

http://www.accuweather.com/news-top-headline.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&date=2008-08-30_08:04

maquiladora

Forecast to go to Cat 5 over Cuba....

electric69

we already got squall lines of rain and thunderstorms since very early saturday morning from Gustav here in central florida despite its location being still south of cuba. More bands of rain continued all day with downpours of rain of approx 8" per hour in some locations. Numerous waterspouts and one confirmed tornado in Key West as of Saturday evening. Storm surge has already hit eastern seaboard as a result of TS Hanna and large swells are expected for the forth coming week.

Might have to evacuated if the swells get too great from hanna

Hal1

They have started evacuations in Louisiana, I was watching the mayor saying it was the 'storm of the century', but I reckon hes scare mongering to get people to do something. Do they know where it will make landfall?

maquiladora

Hal1 wrote: »

They have started evacuations in Louisiana, I was watching the mayor saying it was the 'storm of the century', but I reckon hes scare mongering to get people to do something. Do they know where it will make landfall?

Looking like central Louisiana, but could jog a bit to the east/west. Cuba weakened it more than they expected but it'll probably get back up to Cat 4 at least for a while before landfall.

maquiladora

Some links to streaming local news channels for media player :

mms://a527.l2258948526.c22589.n.lm.akamaistream.net/D/527/22589/v0001/reflector:48526

mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv

forkassed

More Gustav coverage

lucernarian

I was about to hit the leaba, but I decided to check the satellite pics as Gustav makes its final approach to New Orleans.

The hurricane seems to have strengthened a bit more than expected, considering it had passed over the warmest Gulf waters already. And more importantly, the path of the Hurricane does seem to be making a beeline for landfall in or around New Orleans itself. Probably slightly west of it.

There's still more than 12 hours to go before things become clearer, but it's on course to be a very severe weather event.

I haven't checked up any further (I'm too tired!) but I do wonder whether it will make landfall as a Cat 4 hurricane now...

Supercell

I've been watching it on Fox for the last while. Looks like a new eye is forming which would be consistant with a strengthing cycle. New Orleans could be a total mess easily again.

Too tired now to keep watching.

dloob

It's made land fall now and weakened to a cat 2.
So far New Orleans is holding up ok so far but there is some overtopping in places.

highdef

I came across this link if anyone is interested in keeping up to speed on the progress of Gustav

http://www.maroonspoon.com/wx/gustav.html