Men's Marathon

eagle eye

The Men's Marathon is off and running.

I had a couple of bets on it for fun.

Its going to be a very tough race as the heat is supposed to rise throughout the day with the possibility of it peaking at 84 degrees.

Anyways my picks. I think Sami Wanjiru is the most likely winner, he is improving all the time and has done most of his preparation in Japan. Martin Lel is the other man who has to be seriously considered but he has had a flu recently which disrupted his preparations.
There are many other contenders and I fancy that the Brazilian Marilson Dos Santos might cause an upset. He won the NYC Marathon two years ago in searing heat and said in an interview later that year that his next target was the Olympics. He will have conditions to suit. I got to back him at 109/1 which was just too attractive to turn down.

shels4ever

Well about 8 k in and Fagan is doing ok, jsut behind the lead group and ahead of baldini in the next group.. But long long way to go But still suprised Baldini is so far back at this stage.

Pherekydes

They are horsing along at a blistering pace.

eagle eye

Yeah, Wanjiru seems to want to push it hard alright.

shels4ever

Yep Baldini is well down at this stage I though he would have been in touch.

A P

They've taken off like there's money at stake! I hope Sammy hasn't gone out too hard - it looks like a suicidal pace in that humidity. It's great to see it being a truly-run race, not cagey like so many championship marathons. I'd love it if he could win it in this style. An interesting couple of hours ahead! What odds did you get?

eagle eye

I backed Sami Wanjiru at 6/1 and Dos Santos at 109/1. I had a smaller bet on Lel.

Pherekydes

Still belting along.

Note: Merged the 2 threads.

shels4ever

thanks for the merge

eagle eye

I don't understand it, I can't see any of them lasting at this pace. You'd think it was a half marathon the way its gone so far.

shels4ever

yes but how far infront will they need to get before anyone can't catch them.?
wow 2:06 pace?

A P

I wonder what Haile is thinking? I doubt he would've expected it to be run like this. It's going to be fascinating to see how this plays out. Hopefully Wanjiru's inexperience won't be his downfall.

eagle eye

I just seen Marilson Dos Santos and he is not too far behind and he will love the heat as I said earlier. He wore gloves when he won in the heatwave in New York.

shels4ever

what is going on, see the bursts they are putting in ... mad... this is going to go badly wrong for some of them...

eagle eye

shels4ever wrote: »

what is going on, see the bursts they are putting in ... mad... this is going to go badly wrong for some of them...

Wanjiru is coached by Koichi Morish1ta who was second in Barcelona in '92. If this is planned then Wanjiru is even better than I thought. I still feel that somebody will come on strong from behind and the question is whether they will get to them or not.

LOl, I had to change the i to a 1. Just lol.

shels4ever

eagle eye wrote: »

Wanjiru is coached by Koichi Morish1ta who was second in Barcelona in '92. If this is planned then Wanjiru is even better than I thought. I still feel that somebody will come on strong from behind and the question is whether they will get to them or not.

LOl, I had to change the i to a 1. Just lol.

i don't know going to be some second half.. i dont know who can come from the back group at this stage, your talking 2-3 mins to some really top class guys. Thats a huge gap..

Fagan 3 mins back in 26th place so going well , looking like 2:12 pace?

Pherekydes

1:02:34

At halfway?

Oh my God!

shels4ever

i'd say were looking at a 2:07 winning time, cant see them running 2:05 in this .

KJ_2008

eagle eye wrote: »

Wanjiru is coached by Koichi Morish1ta who was second in Barcelona in '92.

Wikipedia, you can't beat it!

eagle eye

I don't think they'll even run 2.07, this is just too hard with the heat. I fancy 2.08.30 or worse wins it. These lads will be all out on their feet after 35k imo.

eagle eye

KJ_2008 wrote: »

Wikipedia, you can't beat it!

Thats not where I got it. Iaaf.org is where I got all my info on international athletics.

shels4ever

i dont know about that, maybe if they decide to watch each other, but the plan seems to be run as hard as possible... would be some run if they did... just a pity the great man isnt running .. would have loved to see how he would have delt with this

eagle eye

shels4ever wrote: »

i dont know about that, maybe if they decide to watch each other, but the plan seems to be run as hard as possible... would be some run if they did... just a pity the great man isnt running .. would have loved to see how he would have delt with this

Yeah its such a pity, I don't understand why he didn't run, he can blame the heat all he wants but I just think its a money move. I'd like to be wrong but why would he not run and possibly let a Kenyan take gold?

shels4ever

eagle eye wrote: »

Yeah its such a pity, I don't understand why he didn't run, he can blame the heat all he wants but I just think its a money move. I'd like to be wrong but why would he not run and possibly let a Kenyan take gold?

it was the air quality , he had some type of breathing problem last year and was taken to hosp so he wouldnt risk it.

eagle eye

shels4ever wrote: »

it was the air quality , he had some type of breathing problem last year and was taken to hosp so he wouldnt risk it.

I'm glad to hear that. As I said I was hoping I was wrong.

juvenal

I was wondering where everyone was! Didn't even see this thread

Leaders at 1:29:14 thru 30k in 28C :eek:

Martin Fagan in 29th thru 30k in 1:35:12. He was up to 23rd thru 25k.

shels4ever

i think martin is in a group of 4 or 5 so the place might not give th ewhole picture.. fingers crossed he can finish strong and maybe even a pb.

juvenal

shels4ever wrote: »

i think martin is in a group of 4 or 5 so the place might not give th ewhole picture.. fingers crossed he can finish strong and maybe even a pb.

Yeah, I think there's five of them together judging by the splits.

Gharib looks like he's starting to struggle a bit - although he's done very well to still be in the mix at this stage. I wonder how long he can hang in there for.

They're on a 2:06 or thereabouts pace. Very impressive so far given the conditions.

eagle eye

Great show by Martin Fagan. Lets hope he finishes strong.

Looking at the leaders there and I think Wanjiru still looks really strong. Absolutely amazing.

shels4ever

ahhhh he's pulled out

Fagan has pulled out at around 30 k

entropi

Woah only just realised this was on...almost 2 hours into it...i am not a happy bunny right now:(

Might aswell watch the rest of it then.

shels4ever

Well some of the guy look in bits today, some running 2:07 and 29 degrees.

juvenal

Yeah - pulled out. Any ideas on injury or just exhaustion?

What a run by Wanjiru!

eagle eye

That rates for me as the most incredible single performance of the Olympic games. A new Marathon Champion and so young, this lad is going to be around for a long time yet.

shels4ever

Didn#'t hear anything yet, i'd say i was prob exhaustion looks to have been a log of DNF's in the event.

eagle eye

Thats so sad to see Merga caught in the stadium like that. So cruel.

A P

Superb performance - what a way to finish off the Olympics. Well done Eagle Eye - that 6/1 was a good bet. Poor Merga - I know that feeling when the wheels come off in a marathon. I can only imagine what it's like to lose a medal in the last 250m. Great race. Glad I stayed up!

shels4ever

eagle eye wrote: »

Thats so sad to see Merga caught in the stadium like that. So cruel.

i know he tried to raise it with 400m to go and for a while looked like he might hold it , but then fell apart and lost 100m over the last 300m .

superjosh9

I caught the end of it - vicious to lose a medal with only a few hundred metres to go - looked like if he had one lap of the stadium in an inside lane he could have done it... but the way they had to go around the outside first - poor guy had nothing left in his legs - must have been an awful feeling. I was shouting at the tv but I don't think he heard me.

mrsdewinter

eagle eye wrote: »

Thats so sad to see Merga caught in the stadium like that. So cruel.

Yeah, Wanjiru, Merga and Gharib held together for so long in a pack - we all though M would get the silver.

Peckham

See here for Greg McMillan's evaluation of the men's olympic marathon, and his perspective on where it went wrong for Martin Fagan.

getfit

McMillan seems to be pretty honest and up front in his assesment of these things. Will be interesting to see how Fagans career progreeses and hopefully blossoms over the next decade...

Peckham

Check out the interviews with Brian Sell and Ryan Hall that were recorded just after the Olympic marathon. They offer some interesting perspectives also...

...also worth watching Brian Sell's interview to see the effect of not wearing socks in a marathon can have! :eek:
Also, Ryan Hall looks very comfortable strolling along the Great Wall the day after the marathon.

hawkwing

Peckham wrote: »

Check out the interviews with Brian Sell and Ryan Hall
:eek::eek:x 1000's Sell does 140-160 a week training, i've just started going over 30pw, :eek::eek::eek:Great interviews!