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Interesting article in the Farmers Journal

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  • 21-08-2008 10:17pm
    #1
    nilhg
    Registered Users Posts: 5,118 ✭✭✭


    I know there's a few farmers who visit here, for the rest it might be worth having a sneak look at this weeks Farmers Journal. There is an article by Dr Sarah O'Reilly from Met Eireann about this years "summer". Much of it is as you would expect, a rehash of stats and how Irish weather is inherently variable, but two things stuck out for me.

    1: She says that any given location in Ireland has a 10% chance of being affected by a similar deluge (Newcastlewest, Dublin Airport) over a period of 20 years.

    2: that the six wettest summers since 1970 have occured as 3 pairs, 85-86, 97-98, and 07-08, which got me to wondering why that might be.


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    #2
    shamwari
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,142 ✭✭✭shamwari


    nilhg wrote: »
    I know there's a few farmers who visit here, for the rest it might be worth having a sneak look at this weeks Farmers Journal. There is an article by Dr Sarah O'Reilly from Met Eireann about this years "summer". Much of it is as you would expect, a rehash of stats and how Irish weather is inherently variable, but two things stuck out for me.

    1: She says that any given location in Ireland has a 10% chance of being affected by a similar deluge (Newcastlewest, Dublin Airport) over a period of 20 years.

    2: that the six wettest summers since 1970 have occured as 3 pairs, 85-86, 97-98, and 07-08, which got me to wondering why that might be.

    El Nino perhaps?


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    #3
    nilhg
    Registered Users Posts: 5,118 ✭✭✭nilhg


    shamwari wrote: »
    El Nino perhaps?

    Was thinking of that but doesn't seem to quite fit,

    From wikipedia:

    Recent El Niños have occurred in 1986-1987, 1991-1992, 1993, 1994, 1997-1998, 2002-2003, 2004-2005 and 2006-2007


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    #4
    TheGreenGiant
    Registered Users Posts: 300 ✭✭TheGreenGiant


    it did take place this year according to a bbc report.it has actually lowered the planets temperature by 0.1 degrees which could explain why the artic ice hasn't broken up that much this summer


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    #5
    TheGreenGiant
    Registered Users Posts: 300 ✭✭TheGreenGiant


    hears the link: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7574603.stm


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    #6
    StratoQ
    Registered Users Posts: 41 ✭StratoQ


    TheGreenGiant wrote: »
    it did take place this year according to a bbc report.it has actually lowered the planets temperature by 0.1 degrees which could explain why the artic ice hasn't broken up that much this summer

    That's a fallacy that's somehow got into people's heads this year. The Arctic Sea Ice extent is again very low this summer. It may have had a slower start than last year's - but is well on course to be the second lowest in recorded history.

    http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/


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    #7
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    StratoQ wrote: »
    That's a fallacy that's somehow got into people's heads this year. The Arctic Sea Ice extent is again very low this summer. It may have had a slower start than last year's - but is well on course to be the second lowest in recorded history.

    http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

    I agree, but while the Arctic sea ice extent is still lower than average, it is still higher than last year. Global temperatures when they do fluctuate, fluctuate slowly, so any cooling that may occur in the future, or any warmth for that matter, will happen slowly rather than suddenly. The fact that the sea ice is only slightly more extensive than last year is encouraging in that it is not less extensive than last year. The recent La Nina I doubt has anything to do with this to be honest. The La Nina that occured in the late 90's for example didn't lower the earth's temperatures at all, which calls into question the actual influence Pacific temperatures has on temperatures in areas away from the Pacific.


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    #8
    StratoQ
    Registered Users Posts: 41 ✭StratoQ


    The arctic sea ice is melting at a fast pace now and imo will give the 2007 record a good run for its money.
    I see nothing encouraging at all from this graph and any mention at all of "recovery" is ridiculous. Besides if you were forming any climatic assessment of arctic sea ice recovery it would be based on several years of analysis and not just comparing the vagaries of just one year to the next.


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