what are the chances of it being a sunny day on Saturday Aug 23rd?

vibe666

Hi, I've been poking around in here to try and see if there's any chance that my engagement party/bbq planned for the 23rd August will get any sunshine or if it will be rained off but I'm having trouble tracking down weather reports for that far ahead.

Can anyone help me out please?

cian1500ww

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/forecast-details.asp?partner=netweather&traveler=0&postalcode=Navan&metric=1&fday=12

Don't know how right that will be

Snowbie

Even the man himself above could not tell you what it be like weatherwise this far out.
Much closer to the time within 4 days or the 19th but even then, the models change in that timeframe.

vibe666

bugger.

I seem to remember hearing something on the radio about some guy in the UK who has some fancy set up that is able to (reasonably) accurately predict the weather for a given region anything up to 6 months in advance.

i have no idea how legit this was, but seemingly he'd run his model on Ireland and predicted that there would only be one single week for the rest of the summer where it didn't rain.

if he's a spoofer then meh, but if he's right then I'll be keeping my fingers crossed that the 23rd is 'that' week.

squonk

Judging by current trends, predicting a single week in the next while without rain probably seems like a safe bet. We're bound to get one but it won't be this or next!

Danno

That gy you speak of claimed that the week from the 21st July onwards was the "summer" - he got it right!

vibe666

bugger. yesterday accuweather said it would be sunny and 23 degrees for the 23rd but now this morning it's saying rain.

paulhac

Accu weather forecast is based on raw data and is never accurate that far out

Deep Easterly

Check on this map here:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavnmgeur.html

Then click on the your location, and you will get a simple to read forecast, in ensemble form for your area. It's pretty cool, and reasonably accurate since it is the GFS.

The forecast for Tuam (area) for example:



Rainfall, wind +wind direction, pressure and cloud, amongst other are shown. Only goes out for 6 days, but you get the idea.;)

vibe666

dude, seriously, "easy to read"?

all i see is a bunch of mad looking graphs labelled in what looks like German. I'll take your word for it that whatever it's saying is accurate, but I haven't a bogs notion what that is!

after a bit of clicking around that site I managed to find the graph for Dublin but I've no idea what it's telling me.



EDIT: never mind, found someone who speaks German to translate for me so it makes a little bit more sense now, thanks.

just have to wait a couple of days to see the forecast for the 23rd.

nacho libre

I think we will get an Indian summer yet- the Altantic will quieten down before resuming business as usual for the Autumn

King Kelly

cian1500ww wrote: »

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/forecast-details.asp?partner=netweather&traveler=0&postalcode=Navan&metric=1&fday=12

Don't know how right that will be

Just had a look at this site which is giving 8 hours of rain in Waterford and 12kph WSW winds for next Sunday!

I'm doing a 160km bike ride in the Comeragh Mountains along with about 2000 other cyclists and was wondering would this be accurate this far out?

Just out of curioisty is it our proximity to the the Atlantic which inhibits the accuracy of longer range forecasts say up to 7/10 days? Are forecasts for central or eastern Europe more accurate over a longer timescale?