will ELAN drop more

freesharo

whats ur opinion people,will they drop more

SoCal90046

My guess is that no one really knows.

My personal experience with drops like this is that, all else being equal, it often portends a good buying opportunity. The main issue is that the bad news that precipitated the drop has to be over and that the fundamentals of the company are sound. If the company was on an upward trajectory in any case, chances area that it will recover. Frankly, I don't know enough about Elan to comment about its fundamentals. If Elan can carry on without Tysabri in its portfolio, then the future probably isn't all that bleak.

Speer

I think this latest setback is going to be the killer blow.They are not going to recover from this (baring a miracle).

clevtrev

Speer wrote: »

I think this latest setback is going to be the killer blow.They are not going to recover from this (baring a miracle).

have to agree here - their two world beating drugs have basically been wiped out in the last 2 days. They have little else left to offer. You might get a dead cat bounce but from there the only way will be sideways or down methinks.

pocketdooz

In February 2005, ELANs shares stood at 30 per share.

Two months later they were at 3.70 per share after another scandal

Below are their monthly closing prices since then.

3.77
6.78
7.23
8.46
8.87
7.70
9.40
12.66
16.19
14.02
14.61
14.39
15.86
15.48
15.51
14.62
15.79
15.61
14.45
14.25
13.44
13.48
12.83
14.77
14.99
19.61
21.93
19.18
19.13
22.35
22.12
24.52
24.76
25.14
19.58
21.73
27.59

You'll see that a company like ELAN cannot be written off so easily.

I have no opinion as to what will happen in the near term but I'm buying for the long-term (5 year horizon)

Speer

Good luck with that punt pocketdooz.As I said i think they're in terminal decline with no hope of recovery.

xt40

this weeks drop was an example of totally unwarranted manipulation.
they first presented so-so results of a very small phase 240 patient 2 trial for their alz drug.
not spectacularly great but enough to warrant the move to phase 3 larger scale testing. some may have expected spectacular results so maybe a slight drop was warrented.
next we have a report of 2 cases of a known side effect - pml
thats 2 out of 32000 .
the label says 1 in 1000 so the reality so far is that its 15 times safer than what it says on the tin.
the fda have actually stated on friday that THE INCIDENCE OF PML IS LOWER THAN EXPECTED.
of the 2 cases , both were caught due to the stringent monitoring program. 1 is at home walking around and the other is awaiting treatment in an open ward ie not intensive care.
ms is a drug that does far more damage and and is pretty much guarenteed to do so.
all the other ms drugs are pretty much muck. they dont work and have horrible daily/weekly side effects. tysabri on the other hand for most patients has no side effects. for many it is genuinely a miracle drug. there are loads of documented cases of peoples lives being completely transformed ie ditching wheelchairs for bikes and returning to work after years in bed. for a high proportion, it simply stops ms dead in its tracks.
so the choice for a tysabri patient is this
a guaranteed slow agonyzing future of going blind,brain damage,paralysis,slurred speech and the rest
or a 1 in x,000 chance of catching pml which might /might not be fatal. ask yourself. what would you choose?

each and every dr ,patient,patient group interviewed by the media this week has come out in support of tysabri for these reasons.

to appreciate what it can do, search youtube for lauren parrot and vern beachy. they are 2 tysabri patients who post their progress regularly.

lauren in particular was obviously very illin this video with quiter severe tremors

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5bQpe2sBa8g&feature=related

heres a more recent one

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=59if9kXJBgA&feature=related

thats what tysabri does.


it had little support in 2005 simply because the drug was too new and unknown.
at that time there was noone to contradict the hysterical rubbish that was published

all the doom and gloom is written by ignorant/paid off media the usual sources for their predictions that its sales will collapse/itll be pulled are american analysts. those guys will say anything to serve their agenda. which is usually on the short side.


regarding pml. it is a far more common side effect of many immuno-suppressant drugs than the anti tysabri media let on. eg google rituxan pml.
this drug is also half owned by elans partner biogen yet their sp has never dropped due to it ?.

pocketdooz

Speer wrote: »

Good luck with that punt pocketdooz.As I said i think they're in terminal decline with no hope of recovery.

Thanks for the good luck wish.

You don't really say anything worthwhile in either of your posts ?

What are you basing the above sweeping statement on ?

Do you understand the size of a company like Elan ? Their industry and how it's valued ?

They're not going to recover, this is a killer blow, they are in terminal decline . . . blah blah blah.

You sound like a cheap business reporter - you provide no facts to back up any of your statements ??? Sound bites.

An a better note, thanks to xt40 for a great post.

woodseb

pocketdooz wrote: »

You don't really say anything worthwhile in either of your posts ?

What are you basing the above sweeping statement on ?

Do you understand the size of a company like Elan ? Their industry and how it's valued ?

in fairness in your post you didn't really add any insight either. all you showed was that ELN fell to lows and recovered again.....it proves nothing about how it will perform in the future and fails to deal with the key issue at the company.

The stock recovered before becuase tysabri was allowed back, if the FDA pull the drug this time there's is no chance in hell its getting back to anything near e20 per share. drug approvals and safety are the be all and end all for companies like ELN....

Jivin Turkey

Elan's market is speculative by its nature. If they need to abandon these two drugs their resources will be refocussed elsewhere. The pharmaceutical business isn't as badly affected by current market conditions, so there is no external factors holding business back.

I know someone that works there, and they think it is a well run company. The financial scandal of 2002 really forced them to focus in to doing things perfectly right as there was a lot of scrutiny. There is a good feeling there now and people seem determined to prove doubters wrong.

Their research and development team have continuously demonstrated innovation and a willingness to learn and improve.

The stock may fall more, but I think the fundamentals of the business today are quite sound, and they would appear good value at the moment but to hold as a medium term investment. Given the historical volatility of the stock it would be a high risk/return.

PoleStar

woodseb wrote: »

in fairness in your post you didn't really add any insight either. all you showed was that ELN fell to lows and recovered again.....it proves nothing about how it will perform in the future and fails to deal with the key issue at the company.

The stock recovered before becuase tysabri was allowed back, if the FDA pull the drug this time there's is no chance in hell its getting back to anything near e20 per share. drug approvals and safety are the be all and end all for companies like ELN....

As a medic who also had an interest in shares, I find the above statements and ones similar frankly quite amusing! And I guess it reflects the market also which essentially is moving share prices based on hearing facts on a medical treatment that they dont ahve a clue about.

No, the FDA would not pull approval like this for a drug. 2 per thousand is a 0.2% risk of a complication which is POTENTIALLY not ACTUALLY fatal, for a drug which improves a dreadful degenerative neurological condition.

Lots of medical treatments have side effects, many of them much worse than Tysabri. For example, the commonly used drug warfarin causes many thousands of deaths in the US every year, and yet it is accepted as a commonplace and ACCEPTABLE drug with ACCEPTABLE risks.

Pawwed Rig

Nothing has changed in Elan since the 2 PML incidents. This is a known side affect of the drug tysabri and the stock collapsed before for the same reason. On the RTE site it says there are 32000 users of tysabri. Now I don't know what or if there is an acceptable level of PML to Elan. However they say they are not pulling the drug from the market which I am sure the MS sufferers are thankful for as this drug is proven to be very effective. Their new drug for the Alzheimer’s was factored in when the shares jumped from $24 to $35 in the last few weeks. So even taking this away we can still see room for some growth here (i'm not sure the Alzheimers drug is a dead duck though). To say Elan is in decline is a bit harsh. They have recovered well from their accounting practise issues to become a strong company once again. But with Elan you get a rollercoaster journey that can be very lucrative or lead you to bankruptcy. You just have to know when to get out. However I believe $10 represents good value. Will they go lower?? Maybe. Will they recover and give me a profit? Maybe. Will it be nerve racking? Yes. Will I sweat for a while? Definitely. But it will always be interesting.

PS sorry bout the dollar amounts but I trade on NYSE as it is much cheaper to access than the ISEQ

woodseb

PoleStar wrote: »

As a medic who also had an interest in shares, I find the above statements and ones similar frankly quite amusing! And I guess it reflects the market also which essentially is moving share prices based on hearing facts on a medical treatment that they dont ahve a clue about.

i actually do have a very good understanding of how the markets react to news like this as it's my job.....analysts who follow the pharma stocks would have as good an understanding of the medical issues as most medics and how it plays out with the FDA. I have talked to a fair amount of them over the years and most are from the industry so they are no fools.

My point was really that the previous poster's rationale of what goes down must go up was ludicrous without a prooper understanding of the regulatory regime around tysabri, and apart from that drug Elan don't really have a pipeline to justify a price of e20. If you understand the risks and weigh them correctly you may think its a buy right now, personally i don't have an overriding opion but know the market fears that there may be more PML cases in the future

Pawwed Rig

Up 15% since this post!!!!:D I love Elan. Never a dull moment

ranger4

I bought elan at 9 euro, i believe the stock will rebound before the end of this year, hold on to your hats.

Speer

ranger4 wrote: »

I bought elan at 9 euro, i believe the stock will rebound before the end of this year, hold on to your hats.

you've backed the wrong pony.elan is a beaten docket.

GERMAN ROCKS

Speer wrote: »

you've backed the wrong pony.elan is a beaten docket.

why would you say that?

dunkamania

xt40 wrote: »

next we have a report of 2 cases of a known side effect - pml
thats 2 out of 32000 .
the label says 1 in 1000 so the reality so far is that its 15 times safer than what it says on the tin.
the fda have actually stated on friday that THE INCIDENCE OF PML IS LOWER THAN EXPECTED.
of the 2 cases , both were caught due to the stringent monitoring program. 1 is at home walking around and the other is awaiting treatment in an open ward ie not intensive care.

regarding pml. it is a far more common side effect of many immuno-suppressant drugs than the anti tysabri media let on. eg google rituxan pml.
this drug is also half owned by elans partner biogen yet their sp has never dropped due to it ?.

PML occurred in the two new cases after 14 and 17 months of treatment. Over half of the 32,000 cases have been on the drug less than a year. Its not a case of there may be more cases but that of there will be more cases. Elan have refused to announce details of potential cases of PML that they are monitoring. The investment community doesnt have alot of faith left in Elan. As far Biogen, its share price dropped from $69.76 to $50.01 on August 1st. While the share price moves for Elan may seem excessive, remember that the company has negative earnings and valuations are based on modeling future cash flows. A slight decrease in Tysabri patient uptake significantly affects Elans valuation.

pocketdooz

Speer wrote: »

you've backed the wrong pony. this is a wide, sweeping statement with no argument to back it up.

Fixed your post

Pawwed Rig

I think Speer is winding us up!! Bought Elan at $10.74 currently at $13.28. Doesn't sound like a 'a beaten docket' to me?
Just looked at xt40's mail. Really great vids which show why tysabri can't fail.

woodseb

Pawwed Rig wrote: »

I think Speer is winding us up!! Bought Elan at $10.74 currently at $13.28. Doesn't sound like a 'a beaten docket' to me?
Just looked at xt40's mail. Really great vids which show why tysabri can't fail.

drugs are pulled all the time by the FDA, the more cases of PML that happen the stricter the warnings have to be, as cases of PML rise doctors will be less likely to prescribe it and revenue from the drug will fall.

the benefits from tysabri may prove to outweigh the risks but it doesn't automatically follow that it is will be a profitable blockbuster drug

pocketdooz

Elan, a $ 6.5 BN behemoth are not a one-trick pony and their future was never and is not now linked directly to one drug.

Pawwed Rig

pocketdooz wrote: »

Elan, a $ 6.5 BN behemoth are not a one-trick pony and their future was never and is not now linked directly to one drug.

A fair point however up until that new alzheimers drug Elans future was very much based on Tysabri. When the market thought the drug was going to fail the stock collapsed to $3!! Tysabri is very much the cash cow until the alzheimers one comes online.

Speer

Based on articles I've read and discussions I listened to on the radio I personally wouldn't touch elan.That's just my opinion.Good luck if you've taken a punt on them.

sunnyse

Speer wrote: »

Based on articles I've read and discussions I listened to on the radio I personally wouldn't touch elan.That's just my opinion.Good luck if you've taken a punt on them.

I can only assume by the inane one line negative posts that you have shorted ELN, if so you must be feeling a bit stressed about now:D

Speer

sunnyse wrote: »

I can only assume by the inane one line negative posts that you have shorted ELN, if so you must be feeling a bit stressed about now:D

I haven't a clue what your point is.Telling someone you wouldn't buy a certain share isn't negative.That's positive because if I'm correct you save money.

woodseb

pocketdooz wrote: »

Elan, a $ 6.5 BN behemoth are not a one-trick pony and their future was never and is not now linked directly to one drug.

go on then. apart from tysabri and the azheimers drug what are ELNs other potential blockbuster drugs?

pocketdooz

woodseb wrote: »

go on then. apart from tysabri and the azheimers drug what are ELNs other potential blockbuster drugs?

Potential blockbuster drugs ?

You mean drugs that are in R&D stages currently ? Then why would you include Tysabri ? It's been around for years.

ELAN had revenue in the three months January to March this year of over $100 million that was unrelated to Tysabri.

Other drugs include, Prialt for severe pain, Azactam and Maxipime for infectious diseases and I know they are in the process of developing a new Parkinson's disease drug. I'm sure there are more too in the pipeline in their research and development facilities.

ranger4

Warberg pincus set to enter race for elans drug delivery unit with a possible 720-750 million offer, would imagine this would help elans share price.

woodseb

pocketdooz wrote: »

ELAN had revenue in the three months January to March this year of over $100 million that was unrelated to Tysabri.

...which is my point exactly. elan's is already trading on extremely high multiples of sales in anticipation of tysabri gaining popularity. take it out and you have a company that has less than $500mln in annual revenue. what is the company worth then?

Elan may have other drugs in r&d but in terms of valuation it's all about tysabri.

pocketdooz

woodseb wrote: »

...which is my point exactly. elan's is already trading on extremely high multiples of sales

10 - 12 times annual sales is an extremely high multiple of sales ?

So, what kind of multiple would you suggest is reasonable ?

Pawwed Rig

They are trading on an extremely high multiple of tysabri sales. You said yourself Elan is a multi billion dollar company so 100million in non tysabri sales isn't anything to write home about.

pocketdooz

Pawwed Rig wrote: »

They are trading on an extremely high multiple of tysabri sales.

Are they really - could you tell us what that multiple is please ?

And why you think it is extremely high ?

Pawwed Rig wrote: »

You said yourself Elan is a multi billion dollar company so 100million in non tysabri sales isn't anything to write home about

$100 million in sales per quarter . . . not $100 million per annum

Pawwed Rig wrote: »

I think Speer is winding us up!! Bought Elan at $10.74 currently at $13.28. Doesn't sound like a 'a beaten docket' to me?

If they are trading at such an ' extremely high multiple ' - why did you buy their shares ?





.

Pawwed Rig

pocketdooz wrote: »

Are they really - could you tell us what that multiple is please ? .

That was Woodsebs point which I thought was misinterpreted by you. Maybe Woodseb can clarify.

pocketdooz wrote: »

$100 million in sales per quarter . . . not $100 million per annum .

I understood that

pocketdooz wrote: »

If they are trading at such an ' extremely high multiple ' - why did you buy their shares ? .

Because as I have already posted here I believe Elan is a good company with a sound future. From what I have seen and heard of Tysabri I believe it is a great product that should do well for them and if the alzheimers drug works out I believe there is a huge market waiting. Finally I believe that $10-11 a share represents great value for me and I am hoping for excellent gains.

pocketdooz

Pawwed Rig wrote: »

That was Woodsebs point which I thought was misinterpreted by you. Maybe Woodseb can clarify.

I don't really get you but . . . I have a feeling you've never even looked at Elan's statements or figures ?

Pawwed Rig wrote: »

I understood that

So, then you understand that they are trading at around 12 times sales that do not even include Tysabri ? A very LOW multiple imo, not a very HIGH multiple.

Pawwed Rig wrote: »

Because as I have already posted here I believe Elan is a good company with a sound future. From what I have seen and heard of Tysabri I believe it is a great product that should do well for them and if the alzheimers drug works out I believe there is a huge market waiting. Finally I believe that $10-11 a share represents great value for me and I am hoping for excellent LONG-TERM gains.

FYP - Good luck.





.

Jivin Turkey

woodseb wrote: »

...which is my point exactly. elan's is already trading on extremely high multiples of sales in anticipation of tysabri gaining popularity. take it out and you have a company that has less than $500mln in annual revenue. what is the company worth then?

Elan may have other drugs in r&d but in terms of valuation it's all about tysabri.

Given the nature of the industry I would say the last thing that pharmaceutical companies are valued on is their revenues. It's all about exploration and R&D. The product life cycle in the industry can be volatile as new drugs can quickly come out making others obselete, or drugs can have their approval revoked smashing revenues.

The value of a company would be driven by drugs in the pipeline, their quality, and the probability of their approval.

woodseb

Jivin Turkey wrote: »

Given the nature of the industry I would say the last thing that pharmaceutical companies are valued on is their revenues. It's all about exploration and R&D. The product life cycle in the industry can be volatile as new drugs can quickly come out making others obselete, or drugs can have their approval revoked smashing revenues.

The value of a company would be driven by drugs in the pipeline, their quality, and the probability of their approval.

i agree with you, i was just using the revenues as an example cos they were brought up by the other poster, also Elan has negative earnings at the moment which makes relative comparison more complex - my bad for dumbing it down. The point is that Elan's value is based on speculative bets on its pipeline which apart from Tysabri doesn't have any real drivers of value at the moment.

10 - 12 times annual sales is an extremely high multiple of sales ?

So, what kind of multiple would you suggest is reasonable ?

the US and European healthcare sectors both trade at around 3 times current sales, Elan has the 4th highest sales multiple out of the top 50 pharma stocks in europe. if you look out to 2010 these multiples start to come in to the mean as tysabri sales start to pick which comes back to my original point that it is all about tysabri in terms of valuation

ranger4

shares trading up today.

woodseb

ranger4 wrote: »

shares trading up today.

...on that back of reports that the two PML patients in europe are recovering, which is obviously positive

Pawwed Rig

NEW YORK -
Wall Street continues to maintain a positive outlook on Biogen Idec Inc.'s multiple sclerosis drug Tysabri, as another safety label change seems to have appeased the Food and Drug Administration and the company said two patients suffering from potentially fatal side effects are recovering. FromForbes.com