Hurricane Bertha (2)

sirpsycho

...SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2008 ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS IN THE
FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...
...OUTER RAINBANDS AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF BERTHA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 24.7 WEST OR ABOUT 190
MILES...310 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

WHILE THE CENTER OF BERTHA WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY...OUTER RAINBANDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...13.3 N...24.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Hal1

maquiladora

Bertha is the farthest east a tropical storm has ever formed in the Atlantic so early in the season. It is also the farthest east a tropical storm has formed in the month of July.

billy the squid

Interesting that it has formed so far east, its still going to be a fish spinner though.

maquiladora

billy the squid wrote: »

Interesting that it has formed so far east, its still going to be a fish spinner though.

It doesn't look like a fish anymore -

Damomanye

ya iv noticed this. Although they (models) kept saying that it would turn north and go into the atlantic etc etc.. it just doesnt seem to be happening. Its maintaning a stuburn westerly track. US media are now warning intrests on the east coast to watch this storm...exciting:)

Latest advisory has it as a Hurricane by Tuesday.

"BERTHA HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD DURING THE PAST 6-12
HOURS AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/18. A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE BETWEEN 50W-60W IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SHOULD KEEP BERTHA ON A GENERAL
WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING AT A RATHER BRISK PACE"

sirpsycho

...BERTHA BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2008 ATLANTIC SEASON...

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.2 WEST OR ABOUT 845 MILES...
1365 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR.
A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS
BERTHA REMAINS OVER THE WATERS OF THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF BERTHA WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT
ANY LAND AREAS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

tomcosgrave

Hurricane Bertha also formed July 7th, 1996. Weird.

Looks like NOAA are predicting that this Bertha will hit Bermuda.

forkassed

Bertha now a category 3 hurricane:eek:

Projected to turn north..



Loop




If this happens is it possible for it to buckle the jetstream and get ireland out of its current pattern of low pressure's rolling in from the west?

Last year the tropical storms just headed west into the carribean and we stayed in this pattern until mid august or so.

Maybe this storm can save our summer.

Wishful thinking?:rolleyes:

tomcosgrave

Personally, I'd hope that Bermuda doesn't get hammered, and I'd put up with a ****e summer rather than see that happening :-)

It seems NOAA are having a hard time forecasting how intense Bertha is or will be - they were predicting that Bertha would become a Cat 1 system tomorrow morning Irish time, but they were 24 hours off. Now it's a Cat 3 - should a Cat 5 be expected in 2 days I wonder? I wonder is the water warmer than they think? Or are other systems not acting as anticipated?

M.T. Cranium

I think what's thrown off the models may be the climatology input, hurricanes in the first half of July rarely become very strong, so the analogues (and this is all that drives the models, really) were probably all fairly weak storms as Bertha was predicted to be, about 48h ago. Now all bets are off because it still has warmer waters ahead and there's little by way of shear. Looking at it without all the model input, it looks like a storm that could achieve cat 4 at least.

Snowbie

Looking at the structure of the storm the eye is huge in relation to the width of the storm itself. I well believe that it's a Cat3 and will undergo an eye replacement cycle further intensifying the storm. If it makes a Cat5, i don't believe it to maintain that strength for too long as looks likely will be a close call with Bermuda.
Probably a strong Cat3.

Waters it be entering can sustain and fuel the Hurricane but a tad lower than the Gulf but agree with MT that little shear is evident keeping the longevity. Notice the TS flaring to the NW and SE of the eye.

Edit: No Jet that far south. In the first attach the High centred between the Azores and Bermuda(bottom/ B left) will steer Bertha. It is forecast for the High to move ENE steering Bertha on a more NW or N? track.

Big Tone

Strengthening far more swiftly and vigorously than predicted, Hurricane Bertha became a "major" hurricane in the open Atlantic on Monday, with sustained winds of at least 115 miles per hour (185 kph), U.S. forecasters said.

The second named storm of the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season was heading west-northwest in the direction of Bermuda when it became a Category 3 storm on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale of hurricane intensity, the National Hurricane Center said.

"A gradual turn toward the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days," the Miami-based center said.

That could take Bertha near Bermuda, a wealthy mid-Atlantic British colony that is viewed as one of the more storm-proof islands in the region, with tough building codes and a storm-conscious population.

The National Hurricane Center said it did not expect Bertha to get much stronger due to unfavorable atmospheric conditions in its path. But the storm has already delivered surprises and forecasting long-range hurricane intensities and tracks is an uncertain science.

Snowbie

Upper level winds have sheared Bertha also with dryer air in the mix has downgraded to a CAT2. Forecasted to intensify slightly over the coming days as it drifts NNW then North probably sparing Bermuda at this stage.

About a hurricane splitting the Jet, never heard of that before Bertha be absorbed by the Jet by the upper level flow giving the Jet more energy i reckon or a possible extratropical north Atlantic storm possibly coming close to our shores. Not good news for good weather.

Couple of clips from the Weather Channel

forkassed

Snowbie wrote: »

Upper level winds have sheared Bertha also with dryer air in the mix has downgraded to a CAT2. Forecasted to intensify slightly over the coming days as it drifts NNW then North probably sparing Bermuda at this stage.

About a hurricane splitting the Jet, never heard of that before Bertha be absorbed by the Jet by the upper level flow giving the Jet more energy i reckon or a possible extratropical north Atlantic storm possibly coming close to our shores. Not good news for good weather.

Couple of clips from the Weather Channel

Not split the jet stream...buckle or amplify it causing the conveyor of low pressures that are coming in over us to go either north or south of ireland.

Snowbie

Amplify it more our way i would imagine. It would add more power in the Jet when absorbed which tends to happen from the central Atlantic region storms. The attach shows Wednesday low with the Jet clearly. Not a significant LP by all accounts(wind wise).

With Bertha due to travel over the Gulf stream also with it being an extratropical storm by then, more power will be added from the GS, be ripped apart by the Jet and a new deep central core of LP will form in theory. Gordon for example Autumn 06. This will increase 300mb wind speeds greatly and a Jet like in the attach is quite possible. Also be north of the Azores high keeping us in this setup with a Jet close by or over us.

Suppose one to watch.

sirpsycho

Back up to Cat2 again from Cat1 the last few days.

ps. Some mod wanna change the title of the thread to Hurricane Bertha?

Snowbie

Done

force eleven

Snowbie wrote: »

Done

Some models now showing the remnants of Hurricane Bertha, heading our way by next week. Havent got the links handy - GFS/ECM at around T 192....too early to call it though, may be just a regular low pressure cell when or if it ever gets towards here,but you never know with these....

ch750536

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=56497144&postcount=8

Snowbie

Bertha now the longest named July storm on record and not finished yet. She is a strong tropical storm and may become a Hurricane again. Bertha will show up over the mid North Atlantic on Sunday and becomes more apparent what effect she will have on us here by then.

Snowbie

1st attach below is Bertha(ex?) projected by GFS next Monday 21st just north of the Azores or near the middle.

2nd attach is ex Bertha just off the west coast on Tuesday. Both attach show the Jet stream being amplified alot more with Bertha's presence and headed our way.

If that where to pull off, some nasty rainfall and very humid air be over us but looks as if a gale at most. Still a long way off atm to be certain of track but the Azores high is stalling it's progress which will eventually buckle into Iberia allowing for some tropical rain to head our way.

Hal1

Seems you weren't far off Snowbie, it's still 5 days out but latest image looks like the remments of Bertha will be further north but we might still be battered by some winds, if they are aided by the jet.



Winds:

Snowbie

Cheers for the maps there Hal. It's looking as if Bertha will nudge the Azores HP towards us at the weekend maybe into the early days of next week and collapse South again into Europe?

This could leave ex Bertha closer to us depending where the HP is going to go. Tricky for the models to pick as it is a storm depression by then. Some tropical characteristics be noticed wit a lot of humid air be in the mix so cloudy skies, damp and high humidity will be noticed along with heavy rain. Winds i don't think will be too severe yet Hal unless track changes. Atm gales out on western coastlines or just offshore with strong gusts and high seas. Interesting next few days model watching.

RoisinD

Thanks for the warnings. Will keep a close watch on this thread. Hope we don't have to start securing everything as it is bad enough having to do it in autumn/winter.

Snowbie

RoisinD wrote: »

Thanks for the warnings. Will keep a close watch on this thread. Hope we don't have to start securing everything as it is bad enough having to do it in autumn/winter.

There be alot of chopping and changing in the models over the coming days, bringing the storm track closer or harmlessly away more to the west of us. Sunday be the day when we get a rough idea of where the storm track will be.:)

Mothman

...BERTHA BECOMES A HURRICANE AGAIN...


HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 63
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT BERTHA IS NOW A HURRICANE AGAIN. THE
EYE HAS BECOME BETTER-DEFINED WITH DEEP CONVECTION INCREASING AROUND
A CONSOLIDATING EYEWALL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 65 KT
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION FROM SAB. BERTHA
SHOULDN'T BE A HURRICANE FOR TOO LONG AS IT IS FORECAST TO BE OVER
WATERS LESS THAN 70F BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. A SLOW WEAKENING IS
INDICATED...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOST GUIDANCE. PHASE
DIAGRAMS FROM FLORIDA STATE INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE SHOULD
BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN A DAY OR SO...WITH THE
PROCESS COMPLETE IN ABOUT 48 HR.

BERTHA CONTINUES MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST...NOW AT ABOUT 19 KT. THERE
IS NO CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING. THE HURRICANE SHOULD
ACCELERATE OUT TO SEA IN A WELL-DEFINED STEERING CURRENT BETWEEN A
HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE MIDDLE-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY SHOWING GREATER INTERACTION THAN EARLIER WITH
BERTHA AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM NORTH AMERICA... RESULTING IN
A SLIGHTLY MORE POLEWARD TRACK OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SHIFTED WESTWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND AND LIES ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/2100Z 37.6N 50.6W 65 KT
12HR VT 19/0600Z 39.8N 48.2W 65 KT
24HR VT 19/1800Z 42.9N 44.8W 60 KT
36HR VT 20/0600Z 46.7N 40.6W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 20/1800Z 51.5N 36.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 21/1800Z 61.0N 23.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 22/1800Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Hal1

Typical women and their indecisivness , anyhow do ye reckon she'll bite us? a week of gale force winds perhaps as shes still headed NE.

Snowbie

Looking at the GFS 18Z, the Azores is deflecting ex Bertha into Iceland and comes nowhere near our shores. Although the Azores HP is pretty weak, how much deflecting northward is yet undetermined. A possible slip over the top and it could come a tad closer but seems unlikely as the LP off the east US coast will absorb the system.

The forecast for the Azores HP is to move along to our south into Europe with a strong Jet just off the NW coast so gales could be expected close to there atm.

What does look certain is that the remains of the Hurricane now over Iceland and the Azores HP over the low countries is to steer a warm and humid WSW-SSW airflow over Ireland by Tuesday and temps and humidity will rise.
Be more certain about this late Sunday.

Also the models do indicate atm a second and stronger Azores HP building but a shallow thundery LP over N Spain/Biscay to drift towards our south coast later in the week. Low confidence on this though. Bertha seems to just plonk itself over Iceland and dictate the weather here for us for the coming week if it's good or bad weather.