ESRI uses the R word...

nesf

http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/frontpage/2008/0624/1214257072258.html?digest=1

Unsurprising tbh.

Heisenberg.

This post has been deleted.

faceman

Only Ray McSharry can save us now!

gurramok

It was all predictable. Now where is that rosy ESRI report from last month to cheer everyone up?

mike65

Where are my legwarmers? Will this cause a shell-suit revival?

Sorry, I mean "OMG" whats a recession da?

Mike.

shnaek

Gloomy news all over the airwaves, and to top it all it's lashing rain in the middle of summer. They'll have to hold off on their new licensing laws as we'll need all the hours in the day to drink ourselves back to happiness! :rolleyes:

daheff

Have to say that ERSI are notoriously wrong in their predicitions...they always seem to be more pessimistic in their predicitions than what actually happens.


Heard one of them on the radio this morning. He actually said that we are not (under the generally accepted definition of 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth) going to be in recession...but still would be in recession at the same time! ??? WTF??

So we arent (or looking like being)in a recession. But the ESRI person did say that national output would be lower this year than last ...so we are in a recession!!

Also heard Brian Lenihan say something similar a couple of days back..that "technically we aren't in a recession"

Sounds to me that certain government people/agencies are trying to talk up the economic downturn (for whatever their reasons are...probably tax increase in next budget).

gurramok

daheff wrote: »

Have to say that ERSI are notoriously wrong in their predicitions..

You can say that alright!

Here's some previous predictions of the ESRI.

30 March 2007: Looking ahead to 2008, we expect a return to a more sustainable growth rate and forecast real GNP growth of 3.9 per cent

3 July 2007: Our forecast for real GNP growth next year is 3.7 per cent

28 Sept 2007: Whereas in the June Commentary, we forecast GNP growth in 2008 of 3.7 per cent, we are now forecasting GNP growth of 2.9 per cent

20 Dec 2007: We now expect real GNP to grow by 2.3 per cent in 2008

14 March 2008: For 2008, we now expect GNP to grow by 1.6 per cent

mike65

Its a recession if people feel like they are in a recession.

Jobs being lost, homes worth less than the mortage, no-one buying used cars, interest rates going up and inflation does likewise, borrowing for day-to-day spending.

Sometimes definitions are irrelevant.

Mike.

faceman

mike65 wrote: »

Its a recession if people feel like they are in a recession.

Jobs being lost, homes worth less than the mortage, no-one buying used cars, interest rates going up and inflation does likewise, borrowing for day-to-day spending.

Sometimes definitions are irrelevant.

Mike.

There are different definitions of a recession. In Ireland its if production is in negative growth

DishonestPikey

There's a whole generation that needs to feel the pain of a recession. It will be good for the country in the long run. More hard work and less cocaine.

shnaek

gurramok wrote: »

You can say that alright!

Here's some previous predictions of the ESRI.

30 March 2007: Looking ahead to 2008, we expect a return to a more sustainable growth rate and forecast real GNP growth of 3.9 per cent

3 July 2007: Our forecast for real GNP growth next year is 3.7 per cent

28 Sept 2007: Whereas in the June Commentary, we forecast GNP growth in 2008 of 3.7 per cent, we are now forecasting GNP growth of 2.9 per cent

20 Dec 2007: We now expect real GNP to grow by 2.3 per cent in 2008

14 March 2008: For 2008, we now expect GNP to grow by 1.6 per cent

Looks like they were overly optimistic in those predictions. :rolleyes:

thebman

DishonestPikey wrote: »

There's a whole generation that needs to feel the pain of a recession. It will be good for the country in the long run. More hard work and less cocaine.

I learnt that lesson without a recession, can I skip the recession? :rolleyes:

nesf

gurramok wrote: »

It was all predictable. Now where is that rosy ESRI report from last month to cheer everyone up?

Long term vs Short term forecasting tbh. It's perfectly reasonable to be pessimistic about the short term and optimistic about the long term etc.

Indeed.
People are watching news bulletins and reading papers now thinking from this [very wrongly of course] that we are in a recession.
We are not.
This is only another one of their predictions and tbh,their track record is terrible.
Net Emigration how are ya.

Clytus

A recession????...defined by the generally accepted yardstick as mentioned....but have any of the papers in thier senseantionlist ways pointed out that in the last 7 years Ireland expericenced on 2 occasions ,2 consecuitive quarters on negitive growth only to end the years with fairly healthy growth??

Probably gonna end with 1.6%...

Kama

Given the assumptions of what we considered our 'normal' growth rate, even a moderate slowdown would have been perceived as a recession. A lot of people weren't alive when Ireland was in anything but a boom. And we certainly aren't in a boom...

The technical determination depends on your yardstick. Ours in negative production growth; but as clytus rightly points out, one predicted quarter does not a recession make. And beating a negative prediction for growth is good for the 'animal spirits'.

Mind you, I'm in the US right now, and its quite common here for people to blank you if you allude to the US economy being in recession; apparently if you deny it enough, the fundamentals can be ignored... :rolleyes:

Clytus

Kama wrote: »

Given the assumptions of what we considered our 'normal' growth rate, even a moderate slowdown would have been perceived as a recession. A lot of people weren't alive when Ireland was in anything but a boom. And we certainly aren't in a boom...

The technical determination depends on your yardstick. Ours in negative production growth; but as clytus rightly points out, one predicted quarter does not a recession make. And beating a negative prediction for growth is good for the 'animal spirits'.

Mind you, I'm in the US right now, and its quite common here for people to blank you if you allude to the US economy being in recession; apparently if you deny it enough, the fundamentals can be ignored... :rolleyes:

Jim Rogers,Meril Lynch and Goldmans Sachs,about 3 months ago stated they felt the US was in recession..

On a side note Iv heard that the total write downs expected from the current credit squeeze could be in the range from $500 billion to an incredible $1 trillion....ouch!!!!

shnaek

Clytus wrote: »

On a side note Iv heard that the total write downs expected from the current credit squeeze could be in the range from $500 billion to an incredible $1 trillion....ouch!!!!

Still not as much as they've spent on Iraq :pac:

shoegirl

The Scientist wrote: »

Its on the front page of todays Indo & Examiner aswell too...
Scary times ahead i'd say.....
All aboard the Australia train! :pac:

True. Most are also using a lot of the word "uncertainty" a lot. There isn't really a lot of predictable certainty right now. Perhaps we have entered a phase of non-linear patterns?

As for Australia, a lot of doors have shut there. 20 years ago it was a lot easier to go to Australia or the USA than there is now. With the stopgap of emmigration partly shut off due to mass worldwide hysteria over emmigration, its quite likely that this factor will alter local patterns significantly.

One thing I do notice is a lot of low earning eastern Europeans are going home, I would suspect because the cost of living increases are hitting them particularly hard.