House prices to rise by next summer - Sunday Indo

mfield

I'd be taking this with a pinch of salt. Read it HERE and see what you make of it.

Personally, I found the whole article hilarious!

ronbyrne2005

:pac::pac::pac::pac::pac::pac::pac::pac::pac::pac::pac::pac::pac:

mikemac

That article has three sources on information:
Construction Industry Federation
Glenkerrin Properties
Irish Home Builders Assocation (

Hmmmm......
I thought a good journalist tries to get another perspective and an opposing view for their articles. Maybe not!

ionapaul

Given that scenario, Mr Grehan and others within the industry believe first-time buyers in particular are now in a strong position to pick up a potential bargain.

LMFAO, what a surprise, the 'industry' thinks its a great time for the aul reliable FTBs to buy...just like it was 6 months ago when prices were higher, just like it was 12 months ago when prices were higher, just like was 18 months ago when prices are higher....and just like in 6 /12 / 24 / 36 months time when prices are lower. WHY OH WHY don't the papers show some journalistic integrity and point out that the VIs ALWAYS say its a good time to buy, just like a used-car dealer will ALWAYS say its a good time to buy from them. I would say the same thing if I were in their situation, but not enough is being done to debunk the rubbish the VIs spout, they are still allowed to misguide young and financially illiterate people.

bobbysands81

Not coming at this from any angle as I have no agenda.

House completions this year should be circa 35-40k. Next year and the year after even fewer. (Govt studies say we need at least 60k new units per year) Couple this with the finite land bank in Dublin and it's only a matter of time before the market in Dublin stops declining, we haven't hit the bottom yet but we're not too far off it. We need small sustainable growth, if interest rates are reduced and banks ease lending arrangements then things should improve quite quickly. However, there are a lot of "if's" there...

I fear for more rural places though where the prices mirrored those of Dublin with absolutely no reason why they should have.

gurramok

Govt study of 60k?,
That wouldn't be the infamous esri rosy prediction crap based on falsehoods that came out on the day Cowen got the big job?
A reminder, they couldn't even predict what would happen in a 6month timeframe(they keep 'readjusting forecasts') and they release a 2010 report a few weeks ago painting a rosy picture based on nothing but fantasy.
They have been consistently wrong on their predictions in the past(just like the Sindo) and cannot be trusted.

-Clear the huge overhang
-Factor in the empties(yes there are thousands of these in dubland) first
-You will not get lower interest rates for a long while yet amid a credit crunch which has bank mortgage rates way above the ECB rate(banks themselves predict 2009 will be the real credit crunch hitting consumers so worst has yet to come)
-And above all, you need the prices to bottom out to make it affordable for the average joe and jane to buy, thats at least another 30% drop, the sooner this happens the better for all.

beeno67

bobbysands81 wrote: »

Not coming at this from any angle as I have no agenda.

House completions this year should be circa 35-40k. Next year and the year after even fewer. (Govt studies say we need at least 60k new units per year) Couple this with the finite land bank in Dublin and it's only a matter of time before the market in Dublin stops declining, we haven't hit the bottom yet but we're not too far off it. We need small sustainable growth, if interest rates are reduced and banks ease lending arrangements then things should improve quite quickly. However, there are a lot of "if's" there...

I fear for more rural places though where the prices mirrored those of Dublin with absolutely no reason why they should have.

Oh don't you know anything.

• Houses here are unaffordable (despite having fallen about 15% while the money people have to spend on houses has increased 10% in last 2 years)
• Emmigration is rampant (despite no one having any proof of this except a feeling in their water)
• No one is buying houses (despite the fact that 1 house was sold every 2 minutes of the working day in first 3 months of this year)
• House completions are falling so house prices must fall also (no I don't get that one either
• All official figures and predictions are rubbish and have been created by the mysterious "vested interests". (I should say that if you find any figures showing Ireland is about to become a third world country then obviously these statistics are true)

Really Bobbysands 19871 you should pay attention to the people on this site who know what they are talking about. They are the ones who never bought a house or have certainly never made money on property market.

DonJose

The numbers at Daftwatch tell a different story. The number of properties for sale has jumped from 40,000 to 70,000 in 12 months and the number of properties to rent has jumped from 5,000 to 14,000. If anything this shows there is more supply available now than there was in the past couple of years.

http://daftwatch.atspace.com/

gurramok

beeno67 wrote: »

Oh don't you know anything.

Yes he does, nobody is thick

beeno67 wrote: »

Houses here are unaffordable (despite having fallen about 15% while the money people have to spend on houses has increased 10% in last 2 years)

Oh yes, nothing to do with rising interest rates coupled with still high prices.

beeno67 wrote: »

Emmigration is rampant (despite no one having any proof of this except a feeling in their water)

No, it's not rampant.

beeno67 wrote: »

No one is buying houses (despite the fact that 1 house was sold every 2 minutes of the working day in first 3 months of this year)

Yes, less people are buying houses, huge numbers of buyers are down.
IBF have stated in their stats that mortgage lending is massively down yr on yr.
Provide that 'fact' of one sold every 2 minutes.

beeno67 wrote: »

House completions are falling so house prices must fall also (no I don't get that one either

Huge oversupply. Less demand who cannot afford the high prices hence price drops, understand?

beeno67 wrote: »

All official figures and predictions are rubbish and have been created by the mysterious "vested interests". (I should say that if you find any figures showing Ireland is about to become a third world country then obviously these statistics are true)

Which stats figures you refer to? I rubbished rightly one ESRI predictions report and you insinuate to rubbish all official reports?

beeno67 wrote: »

Really Bobbysands 19871 you should pay attention to the people on this site who know what they are talking about. They are the ones who never bought a house or have certainly never made money on property market.

People on this site whose views tally with unpaid bank economists(that means independent) don't tow the VI spin and rubbish that spin with facts.

Oh and in case you didn't know, we're in a recession(the CSO will say this soon with the release of quarterly figures)

jimmycrackcorm

That tells us that supply is moving from new constructs to existing houses.

astrofool

DonJose wrote: »

The numbers at Daftwatch tell a different story. The number of properties for sale has jumped from 40,000 to 70,000 in 12 months and the number of properties to rent has jumped from 5,000 to 14,000. If anything this shows there is more supply available now than there was in the past couple of years.

http://daftwatch.atspace.com/

Beware of using Daftwatch to base all your predictions.

It's a growing site, so numbers of houses will always be going up (they only seriously got into house sales in 2006). It is also a competitive market with other sites trying to get a slice of the action.

Unfortunately a combined number from daft/myhome/propertynews is unavailable.

I will say however, that on a south dublin search, the number of properties has gone from 116 to 127 on myhome since September last year.

DishonestPikey

Was talking to family in the states, rumours over there are that the construction industry can take a 50% price cut and still make a healthy profit. So although cutting new developments may balance the supply/demand, people still do not believe that house prices are at a realistic level. Something which I think can also be applied here.

DonJose

astrofool wrote: »

Beware of using Daftwatch to base all your predictions.

It's a growing site, so numbers of houses will always be going up (they only seriously got into house sales in 2006). It is also a competitive market with other sites trying to get a slice of the action.

Unfortunately a combined number from daft/myhome/propertynews is unavailable.

I will say however, that on a south dublin search, the number of properties has gone from 116 to 127 on myhome since September last year.

Then again there are dozens/hundreds of developments listed on Daft with one ad for a complete development of 30/40/50+ properties...

johnnyskeleton

gurramok wrote: »

(banks themselves predict 2009 will be the real credit crunch hitting consumers so worst has yet to come)

Would you be able to elaborate on this please?

Glenbhoy

How does anyone expect house prices to go up when banks are giving out less money? Do they think that FTB's are going to come up with 20% deposits for these increased prices?

ionapaul

I don't think there are any people left who honestly believe in their heart of hearts that property prices in Ireland will be higher in 5 years time...there are those who accept what has occurred and will occur, those who accept it but for various reasons are putting a brave face on things, and those who are simply fooling themselves and shutting their eyes as tightly as they can. Up to 2 years ago I might have been the only one of my family and friends who thought that we were in real trouble with a gigantic property bubble, one of the biggest asset price bubbles of all time relatively speaking...now I can't believe that any one of my friends or family truly believe we are anyway close to the end of the downturn...I believe we aren't even at the 'end of the beginning' of it.

DishonestPikey

Glenbhoy wrote: »

How does anyone expect house prices to go up when banks are giving out less money? Do they think that FTB's are going to come up with 20% deposits for these increased prices?

Is it a fact that you need a 20% deposit? That would be 50K on a 250K home....are the banks seriously looking for this kind of deposit?

ixoy

DishonestPikey wrote: »

Is it a fact that you need a 20% deposit? That would be 50K on a 250K home....are the banks seriously looking for this kind of deposit?

Some are for apartments - I believe Bank of Scotland will demand a 20% deposit on apartments and lend no more than 92% on a house. I would personally like to able to do a 90% mortgage on any property that I end up buying but 80% would be seriously pushing it.

DishonestPikey

ixoy wrote: »

Some are for apartments - I believe Bank of Scotland will demand a 20% deposit on apartments and lend no more than 92% on a house. I would personally like to able to do a 90% mortgage on any property that I end up buying but 80% would be seriously pushing it.

Why do they distinguish between apts and houses? So I can buy a house for 250K with 25K deposit but if I want to buy an apt for 250K I need a 50K deposit?

The_Conductor

DishonestPikey wrote: »

Why do they distinguish between apts and houses?

Perceived lack of potential demand for second-hand apartments. A lot of people buy an apartment "to get their foot on the property ladder" as they liked to put it- with the intention of trading up to the typical semi-d somewhere down the road. Apartments are leading the charge downwards.......

gurramok

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Would you be able to elaborate on this please?

http://www.rte.ie/business/2008/0616/intertrade.html?rss.
And an international perspective: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/credit-crisis-far-over-banks/story.aspx?guid=%7B1BC0102D-4AE8-4859-9E8E-5C5F0CBF9B1F%7D

(I did read somewhere where a major bank here did indicate a tightening of lending well into 2009, it might have been IT or SBP, can't remember which publication.)

Also, many of the sub-prime mortgages have still not reset yet in the US hence more losses for financial institutions there with its knock on affects on interbank lending in Euroland.

And then we have our own 'prime' mortgages(think 100% & interest only) based on the 2% ECB fixed rates(3yr+5yr) upto Dec '05 which are going to reset to higher rates(double for most) this year onwards.

DublinDilbert

DishonestPikey wrote: »

Why do they distinguish between apts and houses? So I can buy a house for 250K with 25K deposit but if I want to buy an apt for 250K I need a 50K deposit?

Cause the banks feel apartments are riskier and have much further to fall, hence the 20% deposit. Remember that's the minimum deposit that some banks require!

Basically the bank is protecting themselves in case they have to re-posse the place and sell it, at least they'll have your 50k deposit and what ever they can get for your apartment! :rolleyes:

johnnyskeleton

gurramok wrote: »

http://www.rte.ie/business/2008/0616/intertrade.html?rss.
And an international perspective: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/credit-crisis-far-over-banks/story.aspx?guid=%7B1BC0102D-4AE8-4859-9E8E-5C5F0CBF9B1F%7D

(I did read somewhere where a major bank here did indicate a tightening of lending well into 2009, it might have been IT or SBP, can't remember which publication.)

Also, many of the sub-prime mortgages have still not reset yet in the US hence more losses for financial institutions there with its knock on affects on interbank lending in Euroland.

And then we have our own 'prime' mortgages(think 100% & interest only) based on the 2% ECB fixed rates(3yr+5yr) upto Dec '05 which are going to reset to higher rates(double for most) this year onwards.

Thanks gurramok, but just to clarify on how it will effect interest rates, is it that interbank rates will increase in response to lack of confidence in other banks, or is it that this will be when the banks start to write off bad debts, thus requiring higher rates to maintain earnings?

Another factor that may come into play is that if you are the kind who has things coming and going via DD on your current account, and you had a monthly installment that went up from 1500 to 1600, you might not notice it until a few months down the line when your first installment comes back. Then there are people who in 2004 were stress tested up to an increase of 2% in interest rates who cannot be stretched any further.

gurramok

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Thanks gurramok, but just to clarify on how it will effect interest rates, is it that interbank rates will increase in response to lack of confidence in other banks, or is it that this will be when the banks start to write off bad debts, thus requiring higher rates to maintain earnings?

Think it will be the first one mostly as a consequence of the second one(bad debt). Banks don't trust each other, they don't know which ones are holding the bad debts as they had been wrapped up in the CDO's with such complexity. We're not even half way to sourcing of who has all the subprime bad debts according to american media.

Irish banks source at least half their lending from the interbank market(sourced from a indo link which was reputable for a change!) hence they will and have done pass that cost onto the customer via higher rates. (tracker customers have a good deal to escape this)

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Another factor that may come into play is that if you are the kind who has things coming and going via DD on your current account, and you had a monthly installment that went up from 1500 to 1600, you might not notice it until a few months down the line when your first installment comes back. Then there are people who in 2004 were stress tested up to an increase of 2% in interest rates who cannot be stretched any further.

I think its fair to say that a certain portion of borrowers are been affected by this. (if 37% of Irish people as reported recently are struggling with any type of bill, jumbo mortgages on 2% rates obtained in the boom which are more than doubling will hurt them badly as not all borrowers can compensate this extra cost for higher wages)
Also last year as reported in the bubble thread, there were about 80,000 borrowers hurting on 4% ECB rates back then and they were the ones on trackers/variables, not the 'resetters' who i think are going to suffer more as they come off ridiculously low fixed rates.