Betting on the Lisbon Treaty Referendum

PH01

I checked out Paddy Power this morning and just now, and it appears that the betting is favouring the 'Yes' side and the trend is growing to that side.



| YES | NO
11 AM |2-5 | 7-4
3 PM |2-7 | 9-4
8:30 PM|4-11|15-8

Will check it again in a few hours...

zig

yesterday they were offering 1/3 for yes, 2/7 is even lower odds, looks like a yes could be on the way, people here mightnt agree, but I genuinely find paddypower and the likes of betfair great for finding out how things are doing. During the US nominations I found betfair a great way to see how obama was doing. Not saying the shortest odds are always right though,if that was the case we'd all be rich

eoin2nc

Well it will cost paddypower if they are wrong.............so they are generally right

wylo

yes now 4/11 on Paddypower, I wonder are they doing their own sort of exit poll or what

Khannie

wylo wrote: »

I wonder are they doing their own sort of exit poll or what

I'd say they're just basing it on how much money's being bet on each outcome.

dublinmadyoke

I voted this morning @ 8am in Churchtown there was no one doing a exit poll. I would have been delighted to tell them I voted NO. The girls at the desk said at loads had voted before me and they were shocked @ how busy it was. Does that mean anything?

darkman2

No vote now evens on Betfair

Moriarty

Uh, where are you seeing that darkman2? It's 3.5:1 at the moment on betfair for the no vote to win. 1.3:1 for a yes.

wylo

Moriarty wrote: »

Uh, where are you seeing that darkman2? It's 3.5:1 at the moment on betfair for the no vote to win. 1.3:1 for a yes.

I saw the evens thing as well, in fairness its changing constantly for the last few hours, but has steadied up now for the last hour to the odds your talking about, personally I think its just about a fair price, not great though

PH01

BetFair is interesting. Currently 1-5 to the Yes. And 5-2 for the NO which is coming in.
Knife edge stuff.

zig

I know this isnt a gambling forum but I figure the people reading this thread would be interested in a quick update

1/18 to 2/11 to back yes on betfair, 3/1 to even 4/1 to back no. All confidence seems to have been lost in no outcome , I wouldnt be surprised if a few big gamblers did their own exit polls, I cant see where else these kind of extreme odds come from

PH01

Paddy Power has stopped taking online bets on the Referendum since just before 10 last night. Though Betfair is still taking bets - 30/100 for Yes and 2/1 for NO.

However it isn't all over yet, not by a long shot. RTE says that turnout could be around the 41% mark, that makes a NO vote likely. Turnout of about 45% or above will favour the Yes side.

PH01

From Betfair

A lot of bets favouring NO with it's odds coming in 6/5, while the YES odds are going out to 4/6

Even Stephens I'd say?

mcaul

sh1t - betfair are going 2/1 for yes and 2/5 for no.

ShooterSF

Actually Yes 5/1 now and No 1/7 nearly thinking of putting a bet on yes to soften the blow if we loose.

ShooterSF

Got me thinking, If you put a good bit of money on no at 5 or 6 to one now is a good chance to guarantee a profit by betting on yea at 5/1!!

PH01

10:30AM
Yes - 5/1
NO - 1/10

ShooterSF

Ah well went an did it €10 at 9/1 so if we loose I can atleast drown the sorrows

PH01

YES | 10/1
NO | 1/19

NewApproach

twentys on on NO now on betfair...

PH01

YES | 9/1
NO | 1/14


BTW: And I can't believe that PaddyPower has paid out for a YES win?!!!

PH01

This is gone to the NOs

YES | 29/1
NO | 1/33