Could Cóir be the real winners with a 'no' vote?

Gadjodilo

We’ve all heard from the ‘no’ folk how we can renegotiate this baby. No bother! Sure Brian’s a big boy!

Without going back over all the arguments again, I don’t believe this is the case. I think all the points raised by the ‘no’ side are either well covered in the treaty or else our chances of getting a better deal are pretty much zero**. Indeed, if extra safeguards are put to the people in a new referendum, the ‘no’ side could easily argue that they’re the same as those there already and the ‘yes’ parties would face a second humiliation.

We’ve never renegotiated the substance of an EU treaty before. Previously, we got around the difficulties by putting something in place that was of relevance to Ireland and only Ireland – whether in the treaty or in Irish law.

In 1992, before it went to a vote, we’d got the protocol on Article 40.3.3 of the Irish Constitution inserted to get around the issue of abortion. And after the first Nice rejection in 2001, the second vote in 2002 involved placing in Irish law extra safeguards around neutrality and our involvement in military action.

If we vote ‘no’, I think a possible solution (barring dropping Irish ratification of the whole thing and dealing with the consequences which I’d prefer) would be something similar. It wouldn’t be about voting weights or permanent commissioners. Rather it would be some issue that is deemed (however wrongly) to impinge on Ireland but whose resolution would of little consequence to the others; something that would allow us to go on doing our own thing.

The only group on the ‘no’ side that is raising such issues is Cóir.

They’ve raised the spectre of the legalisation of prostitution, currently illegal drugs, euthanasia, abortion, gay marriage and gay adoption.

How likely is is that faced with a rejection, the government will turn to these areas to get ratification? It would simply involve the amending Irish Constitution or Irish law to, for example :
Define marriage as being between a man and a woman only (this would be a constitutional change)
Putting restrictions on adoption by gay couples
Tighten up the laws on euthanasia (this might be a constitutional amendment too)

Abortion is covered already. No doubt there’s some tinkering they could do with the laws on illegal drugs and prostitution.

Then, we get a protocol added to the treaty stating something like:
THE HIGH CONTRACTING PARTIES,

HAVE AGREED [that]

Nothing in the Treaties, or in the Treaty establishing the European Atomic Energy Community, or in the Treaties or Acts modifying or supplementing those Treaties, shall affect the application in Ireland of Articles X.X.X….. (listing the articles) of the Constitution of Ireland.

The other countries would yawn it through their ratification process again with a muttered “Whatever!”. It would be no skin off their noses – whatever about ours…..


** If someone wants to argue this point, I’ll post the link where I made these points originally.

Zube

Cóir are 20th century dinosaurs who just haven't noticed they are extinct yet. Constitutional amendments attacking gay rights are a non-starter. Just as divorce eventually arrived in Holy Catlic Ireland, so will same-sex marriage and adoption.