How many are moving up?

digiman

Just something that I have been wondering recently, has anyone any idea what % of people have been able to move up 4 levels or more at NLHE? Joe and Ians talk in the BBV thread is interesting and a lot of good points from both lads about the amount of work involved in moving up and for most players its just not worth it due to the time it takes and the amount of time you miss out on your most social able years.

Everyone knows about Brian Townsend playing 50nl and a year or so later sitting at HSP with 500k which is only a portion of his roll. A lot of young players I guess dream do of this as I know I did and still when starting out thinking that this is the easy way to making a fortune but in reality only a fraction of a percentage can achieve this and stay there.

Personally since January I've taken poker a lot more serious than I ever have before, it was sort of a new years resolution to actually try and get better and grind out a roll from 50nl to see where I could get to the following year. I was aiming for 20k BR and to be in the transition stage between 200nl and 400nl and be able to actually beat 400nl. I have been putting in on average about 12 hrs a week actually playing poker in my spare time and about the same amount of time again if not more reading forums and articles, reviewing hands etc. So this is about 25hrs a week, luckily the most of this I can do during working hours so its not taking away to much from my own normal life with girlfriend and my mates but I still wonder am I just wasting my time with this as more than likely I'll never make it to be able to beat 1kNL or 2kNL where I can beat the game and make a decent living out of it and live comfortably playing about 15 hrs a week.

I would imagine that less than 1% of people have been able to go from 50nl to 1Knl in any time frame. Anyone got any views or factual answers?

Lafortezza

I would shoot myself in the face if I had to play poker as a sole source of income. But it has paid for car insurance and several trips to vegas in the past. Ideally, if I was still motivated to play online, it would be a tidy second income. A couple of hundred a week maybe to spend on whatever the **** I liked.

I think people underestimate how difficult it is to grind up to NL$600 or higher and live comfortably and securely on the profit. The amount of time and study alot of people put in to poker in your early twenties could be spent on education and getting a well paid job they like that will leave them comfortable financially. Then play poker for fun.

ionapaul

I would guesstimate the percentage would be a small fraction of 1%, a very small fraction TBH. Similar to the number of young lads who spend their summers playing football (probably all of us did this when young) and the number who actually make a very good living as a professional soccer player.

digiman

I would imagine quite a lot of people find 400nl as the stumbling block, as you don't hear of that many people getting past it and there are only a handful of people on this forum playing above than any nearly everyone else is underneath that.

If I could get to the stage where I could make $30k in a year from poker which I could use for holidays, gadgets etc then this would have made it worth it I think and obviously I would still be working my job which would pay for a mortgage/car loan etc. More or less what jackyback said, make a decent living in both.

hotspur

digiman wrote: »

So this is about 25hrs a week, luckily the most of this I can do during working hours so its not taking away to much from my own normal life with girlfriend and my mates but I still wonder am I just wasting my time with this as more than likely I'll never make it to be able to beat 1kNL or 2kNL where I can beat the game and make a decent living out of it and live comfortably playing about 15 hrs a week.
I would imagine that less than 1% of people have been able to go from 50nl to 1Knl in any time frame. Anyone got any views or factual answers?

Well obviously no-one can give you figures on the percent of people who move from 50nl to 1knl in any time frame at all. In my opinion for cash players anyone who is playing less than 1/2 after 1 year of taking the game seriously probably doesn't have what it takes. What I don't quite understand about your post is - why do you only want to work for 15 hours a week if it were your only job? And why do you think you need to play 1k or 2k nl to live comfortably? Now these 2 points are linked, but I have friends who mostly play 2/4 and 3/6 and live very comfortably with online poker as their only source of income. 3 PT bb/100 is $144 an hour at 3/6 on 4 tables, that's $112k a year if you're lazy enough only to play 15 hours a week.

I haven't read the bbv discussion but in my view the problem is not the time and effort it takes per se but the fact that so many people are trying it who don't have the ability and personality to succeed. If everyone had a sudden epiphany and saw their ability and potential for what it really is instead of kidding themselves that they could make loads if only they didn't tilt / tried harder / played more / played different limits etc etc then there would be no problem. But poker is deceptive, we all know we cannot be Tiger Woods or Ronaldo but it's more difficult to see why we cannot be Ivey or Townsend. But only a ridiculously small percentage of people have the raw intelligence, various personality traits, and interest in doing it to succeed long term up to high stakes levels.

But poker is fun, the immediacy of the money confuses people and makes them extrapolate their wins all the time to imaginary futures of infinite monies. That aspect of it is no different to imagining winning the lotto, except that we know the odds of that but don't have any good idea in our heads of the odds of becoming a winning high stakes player, which has lead you to actually ask for a figure. The small wins and that lack of understanding of the actual chances of becoming a top player are why poker players harbour vague ambitions of making it, whereas most people who enjoy a game of golf don't have ambitions to play on the PGA tour.

A lot of poker payers don't want to know though. There is no Santa or tooth fairy, you are not going to win the lotto, you're probably not doing or ever will do what you dreamt of doing, you're going to die, and there's no heaven. Being able to conceive of getting to the point where you can make boatloads of money in poker is a psychological salve for the existential angst that we suffer. You shouldn't have asked for a percentage chance of your succeeding. In honour of YULETIRED, to quote Dr Zaius in Planet of the Apes:
George Taylor: A planet where apes evolved from men? There's got to be an answer.
Dr. Zaius: Don't look for it, Taylor. You may not like what you find.

Goodluck2me

lafortezza wrote: »

I would shoot myself in the face if I had to play poker as a sole source of income. But it has paid for car insurance and several trips to vegas in the past. Ideally, if I was still motivated to play online, it would be a tidy second income. A couple of hundred a week maybe to spend on whatever the **** I liked.

I think people underestimate how difficult it is to grind up to NL$600 or higher and live comfortably and securely on the profit. The amount of time and study alot of people put in to poker in your early twenties could be spent on education and getting a well paid job they like that will leave them comfortable financially. Then play poker for fun.

This is what I was trying to get at with my post, although you have embodied it in a much shorter fashion, I agree completely with it. the amount of disillusioned people you meet along the way is almost disturbing.

nicnicnic

goodluck2me wrote: »

the amount of disillusioned people you meet along the way is almost disturbing.

there's loads of disillusioned people who go to mass regularly when you sort the poker crowd maybe you could help them see the light also

Tight Ted

You've to be amazing to be a winner at 1knl and above, it's not all about mastering the game, but mastering metagame, opponents etc. Durr said in an interview that he's got pages and pages of notes he's made about individual online opponents he's came up against. Even then there's a boatload of variance. If you're a winner at 200nl at a decent sample size be pleased with yourself, loads of people making comfortable livings off this.

NickyOD

hotspur wrote: »

I haven't read the bbv discussion but in my view the problem is not the time and effort it takes per se but the fact that so many people are trying it who don't have the ability and personality to succeed. If everyone had a sudden epiphany and saw their ability and potential for what it really is instead of kidding themselves that they could make loads if only they didn't tilt / tried harder / played more / played different limits etc etc then there would be no problem. But poker is deceptive, we all know we cannot be Tiger Woods or Ronaldo but it's more difficult to see why we cannot be Ivey or Townsend. But only a ridiculously small percentage of people have the raw intelligence, various personality traits, and interest in doing it to succeed long term up to high stakes levels.
.

Shushshshsh!! Shut up Goddammit, Just stop talking!!!!

Anyone can be the next Phil Ivey or Townsend. Anyone can, if they work really hard and put in the hours, and I mean absolutely anyone. No matter how much you lose at poker don't give up, just keep at it and some day you'll make it.

DONT STOP BELIEVING!!!

Degag

hotspur wrote: »

Well obviously no-one can give you figures on the percent of people who move from 50nl to 1knl in any time frame at all. In my opinion for cash players anyone who is playing less than 1/2 after 1 year of taking the game seriously probably doesn't have what it takes. What I don't quite understand about your post is - why do you only want to work for 15 hours a week if it were your only job? And why do you think you need to play 1k or 2k nl to live comfortably? Now these 2 points are linked, but I have friends who mostly play 2/4 and 3/6 and live very comfortably with online poker as their only source of income. 3 PT bb/100 is $144 an hour at 3/6 on 4 tables, that's $112k a year if you're lazy enough only to play 15 hours a week.

I haven't read the bbv discussion but in my view the problem is not the time and effort it takes per se but the fact that so many people are trying it who don't have the ability and personality to succeed. If everyone had a sudden epiphany and saw their ability and potential for what it really is instead of kidding themselves that they could make loads if only they didn't tilt / tried harder / played more / played different limits etc etc then there would be no problem. But poker is deceptive, we all know we cannot be Tiger Woods or Ronaldo but it's more difficult to see why we cannot be Ivey or Townsend. But only a ridiculously small percentage of people have the raw intelligence, various personality traits, and interest in doing it to succeed long term up to high stakes levels.

But poker is fun, the immediacy of the money confuses people and makes them extrapolate their wins all the time to imaginary futures of infinite monies. That aspect of it is no different to imagining winning the lotto, except that we know the odds of that but don't have any good idea in our heads of the odds of becoming a winning high stakes player, which has lead you to actually ask for a figure. The small wins and that lack of understanding of the actual chances of becoming a top player are why poker players harbour vague ambitions of making it, whereas most people who enjoy a game of golf don't have ambitions to play on the PGA tour.

A lot of poker payers don't want to know though. There is no Santa or tooth fairy, you are not going to win the lotto, you're probably not doing or ever will do what you dreamt of doing, you're going to die, and there's no heaven. Being able to conceive of getting to the point where you can make boatloads of money in poker is a psychological salve for the existential angst that we suffer. You shouldn't have asked for a percentage chance of your succeeding. In honour of YULETIRED, to quote Dr Zaius in Planet of the Apes:
George Taylor: A planet where apes evolved from men? There's got to be an answer.
Dr. Zaius: Don't look for it, Taylor. You may not like what you find.

Great post.

lee_arama

hotspur wrote: »

STUFF

Spelling and grammar FTW! Sorely needed my dimunitive friend.

RedJoker

digiman wrote: »

Just something that I have been wondering recently, has anyone any idea what % of people have been able to move up 4 levels or more at NLHE? Joe and Ians talk in the BBV thread is interesting and a lot of good points from both lads about the amount of work involved in moving up and for most players its just not worth it due to the time it takes and the amount of time you miss out on your most social able years.

Poker theory is interesting to lots of people so it doesn't really feel like "work". Just like how accounting is interesting to some people, nah just kidding.

As another example, I could never get through a 4+ year degree in medicine because I have no interest in it. My sister, on the other hand, will probably have no trouble doing it.

Sure it's hard work to get to 600nl but it's hard work to become a lawyer as well, you're not going to become successful at anything unless you work hard............or take insanely stupid risks and run good.

Basically, do what you want/enjoy and, with a bit of intelligence and work ethic, the money should take care of itself.

pok3rplaya

I agree with RJ. I enjoy studying and playing poker.

ianmc38

excellent post as always hotspur.

mormank

at the end of the day pocket tens will lose to 5 3 off suit every now and again...

cash is where you sort the men from the boys imo...tournies anybody can win. anybody can run like a kenyan over a day or two of a tournie..incidentally, i played against a guy from kenya the other day...he lost every race he was in, i just dont know where that saying comes from!!!

zuutroy

The problem is that for a lot of people that get into poker, putting a lot of hard work in is like kryptonite. They just wanna gamboool a spin up. I think for anyone with a good logical brain and good 'soft skills' who is willing to put in 10 hours a week of study on top of what they play it should be possible to make a lot of money.
If I max out at say 4-5ptbb/100 at $400nl (incl. rakeback and maybe optimistic but hey..) that would make ~$7k a month playing 20k hands as I do now.
That's certainly not too shabby for doing something in my spare time that I enjoy (most of the time).

GrangeUtd

I think work ethic is a huge part of poker. I think a lot of players lack this. This guy leatherass and his well really inspired me to grind it a ton and try and get better. I mean the guy pisses in a bottle so as not to sit out on all his tables. He figured out how many fpps he was losing and decided using a bottle was worth it. That is dedication and commitment.

If your going to play poker full time treat it like a job and put in the hours. Minimum 30hrs a week. Not to much to ask. For example i work full time(brag only 3 weeks left) 42.5 hours a week plus commute another 8 hrs. Thats 50 plus hrs a week taken up by my job. i am going to play full time in austraila
for 3 months and see how it goes. If i put in 30+ hrs a week at 200nl i will earn 3-4000$ alone in rakeback. never mind the fact im a winner in the game.

I really love the game and ive decide to give it a shot. Poker motivates me like nothing else. See the thing is im never going to be the guy with the 70-80k a year job because i cant motivate myself nor do i want to. I have a reasonable job now dealing with fraud for a major internet company. So if it does not work out then so be it i can always get a job again somewhere. Id be more sick if i never gave it a shot and see how far i can take it.


link to leatherass in the Well

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=139955

NickyOD

ianmc38 wrote: »

excellent post as always hotspur.

Yeah but tapping the glass should result an insta-ban IMO.

sickpuppy

Jesus yer man leatherass may be committed the last time i pissed ina bottle i was half dead in a hospital.
Does he not think it more hygenic to use a bathroom and wash ones hands as well.
He may be agreat grinder and player but ffs where does it end?
Not bothering washing im losing fpps man never leaving the room except pick
up takeaway from deliverys?
Good luck in Austarlia grange great country just dont tell the ozzies that arrogant fookers.
Why play profishionally here when uc an do it there.

careca

sickpuppy wrote: »

He may be agreat grinder and player but ffs where does it end?

Amen to that. If you can't get up to go to the toilet you have a problem. I shudder to think what would happen if he needed to take a crap.

YULETIRED

Good post Hotspur.........I disagree about heaven though.....I've seen her, she works in Spar.
There is no harm in tapping the glass, people will still be deluded and in fact one or two might say...
ban him for he is tapping the glass and completely ignore the tapping themselves............):D

strewelpeter

GrangeUtd wrote: »

I think work ethic is a huge part of poker.... This guy leatherass and his well really inspired me to grind it a ton and try and get better. I mean the guy pisses in a bottle so as not to sit out on all his tables. He figured out how many fpps he was losing and decided using a bottle was worth it. That is dedication and commitment.

No, that isn't work ethic or dedication it is a sickness. Fpp's FFS!!!

People with huge work ethics, dedication and commitment and who are not insane find time to go to the Jacks.

Spiritus

careca wrote: »

Amen to that. If you can't get up to go to the toilet you have a problem. I shudder to think what would happen if he needed to take a crap.

These come into play I guess.

GrangeUtd

lol i just meant it as an example. I actually still use the toilet!
I did toy with the idea of taping 30 mcdonalds straws together.

The point i was getting across was the mentality. His Well really is worth a read. He was up like 500k$ already this year by april. I would piss on the carpet if i was guaranteed that type of winnings and im not even joking.

YULETIRED

Friday night poker night in Howards!

Well Howard I could do with a beer.
Here ya go buddy..
HOWARD this taste like PISS.........sorry worng bottle...... Eh btw, Don't touch that chocolate Mousse

I don't know his name so Im calling him Howard*

careca

LOL's.

Isn't it amazing the way we can bring a thread down to our level in no time at all.

Slash/ED

Why doesn't he just add time to the end of every session after keeping track of his toilet breaks with a stop watch...

Mr.Plough

move his setup to the bathroom obv

digiman

Obviously just sit on a toilet all day

Prime_

thedini

just bring ur laptop with u-standard really!!

Dub13

NickyOD wrote: »

DONT STOP BELIEVING!!!

Did anybody find that a bit 'erotic' in a strange kind of way,or was it just me....?

jimmii

Dub13 wrote: »

Did anybody find that a bit 'erotic' in a strange kind of way,or was it just me....?

I am bleeding from my ears.

EDIT: also no.

bohsman

I can make $36k a year running at 0bb/100 playing 100NL for 30 hours a week just in rb, moving to 200NL would be app a 30% raise. Theres no major need to be rushing to move up to play nosebleed levels.

NickyOD

bohsman wrote: »

I can make $36k a year running at 0bb/100 playing 100NL for 30 hours a week just in rb, moving to 200NL would be app a 30% raise. Theres no major need to be rushing to move up to play nosebleed levels.

I worked out today I can make over $60K a year paying break even poker.

coillcam

NickyOD wrote: »

I worked out today I can make over $60K a year paying break even poker.

Rakeback and affiliate whoring stuff ?

How many tables/hours per week ?

How many people affiliated through you ?

cooker3

DON'T TELL ME WHAT I CAN'T DO!!!

bohsman

cooker3 wrote: »

DON'T TELL ME WHAT I CAN'T DO!!!

cardshark202

bohsman wrote: »

.

cardshark202

NickyOD wrote: »

I worked out today I can make over $60K a year paying break even poker.

how boring would that be?
answer: very boring

NickyOD

coillcam wrote: »

Rakeback and affiliate whoring stuff ?

How many tables/hours per week ?

How many people affiliated through you ?

It's about 35 hours a week 4-6 tabling Monday to Friday and it's all rake from my own play.

dannydiamond

bohsman wrote: »

ffs man get a grip on yourself

dannydiamond

cardshark202 wrote: »

how boring would that be?
answer: very boring

How many people find their jobs worse than 'very boring'? and this is only break even!?!

GrangeUtd

dannydiamond wrote: »

How many people find their jobs worse than 'very boring'? and this is only break even!?!

I definitely do. I work for a good company treated well but its still boring.
I sit in front of 2 screens in work everyday anyway. Thats why im going
to give it a try. I mean look at the figures for being break even and just making rakeback. If you beat the game for 1/2bb/100 you will make nice money.

dannydiamond

GrangeUtd wrote: »

I definitely do. I work for a good company treated well but its still boring.
I sit in front of 2 screens in work everyday anyway. Thats why im going
to give it a try. I mean look at the figures for being break even and just making rakeback. If you beat the game for 1/2bb/100 you will make nice money.

er,that was kinda my point

GrangeUtd

dannydiamond wrote: »

er,that was kinda my point

er, you asked a question i answered in a little detail

[nicK]

the days of beating the game for 4-5bbs/100 over a significant sample size are long gone..

obviously we could table select well all our poker playing careers and perhaps maintain the above winrate but the reality is that if your taking this game seriously you can't afford to not be playing in 'normal' games regardless if your edge is only slightly +ev..

2 years ago it was fairly easily viable for a solid msnl regular to beat the 2/4 through 5/10 games for a solid 8-10bbs/100 profit, but again, those days are gone i feel..

with the obvious lack of fish involved these days combined with the rise of poker training sites, it's pretty obvious to see that it's going to take a completely different type of player to rise from all of that and progress to the higher stakes..

the varience in these msnl games has increased drastically over the past 2years, the games are tougher, the fish are being targetted and finding it difficult to get funds online, a lot more "regs" are learning how to play more optimally.. so yeah, it's getting a lot tougher, but some things never change.. as with anything in life, if you want it bad enough, you should find a way to get it..

zuutroy

WTF!? I was conincidentally reading his wikipedia page right before I read your post...destiny imo!

kpnuts

careca wrote: »

Amen to that. If you can't get up to go to the toilet you have a problem. I shudder to think what would happen if he needed to take a crap.

This is a true story from October 2006. From my mate Toshi's (aka MrDigital's) blog, the story is about another lad I know from Crypto, DEBIDAX -- MrPillowtalk would have played against him plenty on the £2-5/£5-10/£10-20 games there a couple of years ago. I know DEBIDAX too and he has confirmed it's true!

Anyway DEBIDAX rings me hysterical with laughter trying to gather hiself so he can speak on the phone. Now I can't read into his laugh because it could be anything from losing a 20k pot to well you get my drift - he laughs a lot. OK so he says "Wayne your not going to beleive this but i'm playing two tables". Stop right there here is a Good beat coming - he's just fished a monster on the river type scenario. He continues "and I'm in the middle of two big pots on them after running bad for a couple of hours."
"go on" I reply.
"Well you know when you get that sudden urge for a $h1te?" Now conjuring up images of my experiences of this scenario in different parts of the world.
"yes, carry on".
"I got the urge, so I take my laptop off charge and run as fast as i can to the toilet not wanting to miss the opportunity of winning a big pot.
"And?" I query...
He starts laughing again uncontrollably... "well I manage to whip my kecks off sit on the bog and releive my bowels of the biggest sloppiest turd you could ever imagine"

So a bit of an anticlimax here I think but he's still laughing his head off. I ask "did you win the pot or pots?" He says "yes I doubled up on both tables!"


"I just wish that I had lifted the bog seat up before I started $h1tting!"...

l0l0l0l0l0l0l0l0ll0l0l0l0l0l0l0l0l0l0l0l0l0l0l0l0l0l0l0l

http://www.toshiwonka.blogspot.com/

LOL

hf4z6sqo7vjngi

kpnuts wrote: »

This is a true story from October 2006. From my mate Toshi's (aka MrDigital's) blog, the story is about another lad I know from Crypto, DEBIDAX -- MrPillowtalk would have played against him plenty on the £2-5/£5-10/£10-20 games there a couple of years ago. I know DEBIDAX too and he has confirmed it's true!



http://www.toshiwonka.blogspot.com/

LOL

Ooh man the sacrifices we make for a quick double up