How many are moving up?

digiman · 11-06-2008 11:38pm #1

Just something that I have been wondering recently, has anyone any idea what % of people have been able to move up 4 levels or more at NLHE? Joe and Ians talk in the BBV thread is interesting and a lot of good points from both lads about the amount of work involved in moving up and for most players its just not worth it due to the time it takes and the amount of time you miss out on your most social able years.

Everyone knows about Brian Townsend playing 50nl and a year or so later sitting at HSP with 500k which is only a portion of his roll. A lot of young players I guess dream do of this as I know I did and still when starting out thinking that this is the easy way to making a fortune but in reality only a fraction of a percentage can achieve this and stay there.

Personally since January I've taken poker a lot more serious than I ever have before, it was sort of a new years resolution to actually try and get better and grind out a roll from 50nl to see where I could get to the following year. I was aiming for 20k BR and to be in the transition stage between 200nl and 400nl and be able to actually beat 400nl. I have been putting in on average about 12 hrs a week actually playing poker in my spare time and about the same amount of time again if not more reading forums and articles, reviewing hands etc. So this is about 25hrs a week, luckily the most of this I can do during working hours so its not taking away to much from my own normal life with girlfriend and my mates but I still wonder am I just wasting my time with this as more than likely I'll never make it to be able to beat 1kNL or 2kNL where I can beat the game and make a decent living out of it and live comfortably playing about 15 hrs a week.

I would imagine that less than 1% of people have been able to go from 50nl to 1Knl in any time frame. Anyone got any views or factual answers?

Lafortezza · 11-06-2008 11:47pm

I would shoot myself in the face if I had to play poker as a sole source of income. But it has paid for car insurance and several trips to vegas in the past. Ideally, if I was still motivated to play online, it would be a tidy second income. A couple of hundred a week maybe to spend on whatever the **** I liked.

I think people underestimate how difficult it is to grind up to NL$600 or higher and live comfortably and securely on the profit. The amount of time and study alot of people put in to poker in your early twenties could be spent on education and getting a well paid job they like that will leave them comfortable financially. Then play poker for fun.

ionapaul · 11-06-2008 11:53pm

I would guesstimate the percentage would be a small fraction of 1%, a very small fraction TBH. Similar to the number of young lads who spend their summers playing football (probably all of us did this when young) and the number who actually make a very good living as a professional soccer player.

digiman · 11-06-2008 11:56pm

I would imagine quite a lot of people find 400nl as the stumbling block, as you don't hear of that many people getting past it and there are only a handful of people on this forum playing above than any nearly everyone else is underneath that.

If I could get to the stage where I could make $30k in a year from poker which I could use for holidays, gadgets etc then this would have made it worth it I think and obviously I would still be working my job which would pay for a mortgage/car loan etc. More or less what jackyback said, make a decent living in both.

hotspur · 12-06-2008 12:52am

digiman wrote: »

So this is about 25hrs a week, luckily the most of this I can do during working hours so its not taking away to much from my own normal life with girlfriend and my mates but I still wonder am I just wasting my time with this as more than likely I'll never make it to be able to beat 1kNL or 2kNL where I can beat the game and make a decent living out of it and live comfortably playing about 15 hrs a week.
I would imagine that less than 1% of people have been able to go from 50nl to 1Knl in any time frame. Anyone got any views or factual answers?

Well obviously no-one can give you figures on the percent of people who move from 50nl to 1knl in any time frame at all. In my opinion for cash players anyone who is playing less than 1/2 after 1 year of taking the game seriously probably doesn't have what it takes. What I don't quite understand about your post is - why do you only want to work for 15 hours a week if it were your only job? And why do you think you need to play 1k or 2k nl to live comfortably? Now these 2 points are linked, but I have friends who mostly play 2/4 and 3/6 and live very comfortably with online poker as their only source of income. 3 PT bb/100 is $144 an hour at 3/6 on 4 tables, that's $112k a year if you're lazy enough only to play 15 hours a week.

I haven't read the bbv discussion but in my view the problem is not the time and effort it takes per se but the fact that so many people are trying it who don't have the ability and personality to succeed. If everyone had a sudden epiphany and saw their ability and potential for what it really is instead of kidding themselves that they could make loads if only they didn't tilt / tried harder / played more / played different limits etc etc then there would be no problem. But poker is deceptive, we all know we cannot be Tiger Woods or Ronaldo but it's more difficult to see why we cannot be Ivey or Townsend. But only a ridiculously small percentage of people have the raw intelligence, various personality traits, and interest in doing it to succeed long term up to high stakes levels.

But poker is fun, the immediacy of the money confuses people and makes them extrapolate their wins all the time to imaginary futures of infinite monies. That aspect of it is no different to imagining winning the lotto, except that we know the odds of that but don't have any good idea in our heads of the odds of becoming a winning high stakes player, which has lead you to actually ask for a figure. The small wins and that lack of understanding of the actual chances of becoming a top player are why poker players harbour vague ambitions of making it, whereas most people who enjoy a game of golf don't have ambitions to play on the PGA tour.

A lot of poker payers don't want to know though. There is no Santa or tooth fairy, you are not going to win the lotto, you're probably not doing or ever will do what you dreamt of doing, you're going to die, and there's no heaven. Being able to conceive of getting to the point where you can make boatloads of money in poker is a psychological salve for the existential angst that we suffer. You shouldn't have asked for a percentage chance of your succeeding. In honour of YULETIRED, to quote Dr Zaius in Planet of the Apes:
George Taylor: A planet where apes evolved from men? There's got to be an answer.
Dr. Zaius: Don't look for it, Taylor. You may not like what you find.

Goodluck2me · 12-06-2008 1:21am

lafortezza wrote: »

I would shoot myself in the face if I had to play poker as a sole source of income. But it has paid for car insurance and several trips to vegas in the past. Ideally, if I was still motivated to play online, it would be a tidy second income. A couple of hundred a week maybe to spend on whatever the **** I liked.

I think people underestimate how difficult it is to grind up to NL$600 or higher and live comfortably and securely on the profit. The amount of time and study alot of people put in to poker in your early twenties could be spent on education and getting a well paid job they like that will leave them comfortable financially. Then play poker for fun.

This is what I was trying to get at with my post, although you have embodied it in a much shorter fashion, I agree completely with it. the amount of disillusioned people you meet along the way is almost disturbing.

nicnicnic · 12-06-2008 1:45am

goodluck2me wrote: »

the amount of disillusioned people you meet along the way is almost disturbing.

there's loads of disillusioned people who go to mass regularly when you sort the poker crowd maybe you could help them see the light also

Tight Ted · 12-06-2008 1:47am

You've to be amazing to be a winner at 1knl and above, it's not all about mastering the game, but mastering metagame, opponents etc. Durr said in an interview that he's got pages and pages of notes he's made about individual online opponents he's came up against. Even then there's a boatload of variance. If you're a winner at 200nl at a decent sample size be pleased with yourself, loads of people making comfortable livings off this.

NickyOD · 12-06-2008 1:49am

hotspur wrote: »

I haven't read the bbv discussion but in my view the problem is not the time and effort it takes per se but the fact that so many people are trying it who don't have the ability and personality to succeed. If everyone had a sudden epiphany and saw their ability and potential for what it really is instead of kidding themselves that they could make loads if only they didn't tilt / tried harder / played more / played different limits etc etc then there would be no problem. But poker is deceptive, we all know we cannot be Tiger Woods or Ronaldo but it's more difficult to see why we cannot be Ivey or Townsend. But only a ridiculously small percentage of people have the raw intelligence, various personality traits, and interest in doing it to succeed long term up to high stakes levels.
.

Shushshshsh!! Shut up Goddammit, Just stop talking!!!!

Anyone can be the next Phil Ivey or Townsend. Anyone can, if they work really hard and put in the hours, and I mean absolutely anyone. No matter how much you lose at poker don't give up, just keep at it and some day you'll make it.

DONT STOP BELIEVING!!!

Degag · 12-06-2008 1:54am

hotspur wrote: »

Well obviously no-one can give you figures on the percent of people who move from 50nl to 1knl in any time frame at all. In my opinion for cash players anyone who is playing less than 1/2 after 1 year of taking the game seriously probably doesn't have what it takes. What I don't quite understand about your post is - why do you only want to work for 15 hours a week if it were your only job? And why do you think you need to play 1k or 2k nl to live comfortably? Now these 2 points are linked, but I have friends who mostly play 2/4 and 3/6 and live very comfortably with online poker as their only source of income. 3 PT bb/100 is $144 an hour at 3/6 on 4 tables, that's $112k a year if you're lazy enough only to play 15 hours a week.

I haven't read the bbv discussion but in my view the problem is not the time and effort it takes per se but the fact that so many people are trying it who don't have the ability and personality to succeed. If everyone had a sudden epiphany and saw their ability and potential for what it really is instead of kidding themselves that they could make loads if only they didn't tilt / tried harder / played more / played different limits etc etc then there would be no problem. But poker is deceptive, we all know we cannot be Tiger Woods or Ronaldo but it's more difficult to see why we cannot be Ivey or Townsend. But only a ridiculously small percentage of people have the raw intelligence, various personality traits, and interest in doing it to succeed long term up to high stakes levels.

But poker is fun, the immediacy of the money confuses people and makes them extrapolate their wins all the time to imaginary futures of infinite monies. That aspect of it is no different to imagining winning the lotto, except that we know the odds of that but don't have any good idea in our heads of the odds of becoming a winning high stakes player, which has lead you to actually ask for a figure. The small wins and that lack of understanding of the actual chances of becoming a top player are why poker players harbour vague ambitions of making it, whereas most people who enjoy a game of golf don't have ambitions to play on the PGA tour.

A lot of poker payers don't want to know though. There is no Santa or tooth fairy, you are not going to win the lotto, you're probably not doing or ever will do what you dreamt of doing, you're going to die, and there's no heaven. Being able to conceive of getting to the point where you can make boatloads of money in poker is a psychological salve for the existential angst that we suffer. You shouldn't have asked for a percentage chance of your succeeding. In honour of YULETIRED, to quote Dr Zaius in Planet of the Apes:
George Taylor: A planet where apes evolved from men? There's got to be an answer.
Dr. Zaius: Don't look for it, Taylor. You may not like what you find.

Great post.

lee_arama · 12-06-2008 1:57am

hotspur wrote: »

STUFF

Spelling and grammar FTW! Sorely needed my dimunitive friend.

RedJoker · 12-06-2008 2:01am

digiman wrote: »

Just something that I have been wondering recently, has anyone any idea what % of people have been able to move up 4 levels or more at NLHE? Joe and Ians talk in the BBV thread is interesting and a lot of good points from both lads about the amount of work involved in moving up and for most players its just not worth it due to the time it takes and the amount of time you miss out on your most social able years.

Poker theory is interesting to lots of people so it doesn't really feel like "work". Just like how accounting is interesting to some people, nah just kidding.

As another example, I could never get through a 4+ year degree in medicine because I have no interest in it. My sister, on the other hand, will probably have no trouble doing it.

Sure it's hard work to get to 600nl but it's hard work to become a lawyer as well, you're not going to become successful at anything unless you work hard............or take insanely stupid risks and run good.

Basically, do what you want/enjoy and, with a bit of intelligence and work ethic, the money should take care of itself.

pok3rplaya · 12-06-2008 2:04am

I agree with RJ. I enjoy studying and playing poker.

ianmc38 · 12-06-2008 2:47am

excellent post as always hotspur.

mormank · 12-06-2008 4:54am

at the end of the day pocket tens will lose to 5 3 off suit every now and again...

cash is where you sort the men from the boys imo...tournies anybody can win. anybody can run like a kenyan over a day or two of a tournie..incidentally, i played against a guy from kenya the other day...he lost every race he was in, i just dont know where that saying comes from!!!

zuutroy · 12-06-2008 10:32am

The problem is that for a lot of people that get into poker, putting a lot of hard work in is like kryptonite. They just wanna gamboool a spin up. I think for anyone with a good logical brain and good 'soft skills' who is willing to put in 10 hours a week of study on top of what they play it should be possible to make a lot of money.
If I max out at say 4-5ptbb/100 at $400nl (incl. rakeback and maybe optimistic but hey..) that would make ~$7k a month playing 20k hands as I do now.
That's certainly not too shabby for doing something in my spare time that I enjoy (most of the time).

GrangeUtd · 12-06-2008 12:14pm

I think work ethic is a huge part of poker. I think a lot of players lack this. This guy leatherass and his well really inspired me to grind it a ton and try and get better. I mean the guy pisses in a bottle so as not to sit out on all his tables. He figured out how many fpps he was losing and decided using a bottle was worth it. That is dedication and commitment.

If your going to play poker full time treat it like a job and put in the hours. Minimum 30hrs a week. Not to much to ask. For example i work full time(brag only 3 weeks left) 42.5 hours a week plus commute another 8 hrs. Thats 50 plus hrs a week taken up by my job. i am going to play full time in austraila
for 3 months and see how it goes. If i put in 30+ hrs a week at 200nl i will earn 3-4000$ alone in rakeback. never mind the fact im a winner in the game.

I really love the game and ive decide to give it a shot. Poker motivates me like nothing else. See the thing is im never going to be the guy with the 70-80k a year job because i cant motivate myself nor do i want to. I have a reasonable job now dealing with fraud for a major internet company. So if it does not work out then so be it i can always get a job again somewhere. Id be more sick if i never gave it a shot and see how far i can take it.

link to leatherass in the Well

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=139955

NickyOD · 12-06-2008 1:45pm

ianmc38 wrote: »

excellent post as always hotspur.

Yeah but tapping the glass should result an insta-ban IMO.

sickpuppy · 12-06-2008 1:56pm

Jesus yer man leatherass may be committed the last time i pissed ina bottle i was half dead in a hospital.
Does he not think it more hygenic to use a bathroom and wash ones hands as well.
He may be agreat grinder and player but ffs where does it end?
Not bothering washing im losing fpps man never leaving the room except pick
up takeaway from deliverys?
Good luck in Austarlia grange great country just dont tell the ozzies that arrogant fookers.
Why play profishionally here when uc an do it there.

careca · 12-06-2008 2:05pm

sickpuppy wrote: »

He may be agreat grinder and player but ffs where does it end?

Amen to that. If you can't get up to go to the toilet you have a problem. I shudder to think what would happen if he needed to take a crap.

YULETIRED · 12-06-2008 2:19pm

Good post Hotspur.........I disagree about heaven though.....I've seen her, she works in Spar.
There is no harm in tapping the glass, people will still be deluded and in fact one or two might say...
ban him for he is tapping the glass and completely ignore the tapping themselves............):D

strewelpeter · 12-06-2008 2:58pm

GrangeUtd wrote: »

I think work ethic is a huge part of poker.... This guy leatherass and his well really inspired me to grind it a ton and try and get better. I mean the guy pisses in a bottle so as not to sit out on all his tables. He figured out how many fpps he was losing and decided using a bottle was worth it. That is dedication and commitment.

No, that isn't work ethic or dedication it is a sickness. Fpp's FFS!!!

People with huge work ethics, dedication and commitment and who are not insane find time to go to the Jacks.

Spiritus · 12-06-2008 3:10pm

careca wrote: »

Amen to that. If you can't get up to go to the toilet you have a problem. I shudder to think what would happen if he needed to take a crap.

These come into play I guess.

GrangeUtd · 12-06-2008 3:16pm

lol i just meant it as an example. I actually still use the toilet!
I did toy with the idea of taping 30 mcdonalds straws together.

The point i was getting across was the mentality. His Well really is worth a read. He was up like 500k$ already this year by april. I would piss on the carpet if i was guaranteed that type of winnings and im not even joking.

YULETIRED · 12-06-2008 3:21pm

Friday night poker night in Howards!

Well Howard I could do with a beer.
Here ya go buddy..
HOWARD this taste like PISS.........sorry worng bottle...... Eh btw, Don't touch that chocolate Mousse

I don't know his name so Im calling him Howard*