whats plan B??

jon1981

hi,

im still undecided about voting and if I cannot make sense of it by this evening ill probably abstain as it makes more sense to have genuine voters that some idea than a load of voters that havent a clue. now lets say Lisbon does not get ratified i.e. we vote no.

what happens then? the status quo? will the other 26 decide to kick us out of europe or something ? :pac:

mike65

There is no plan B (repeat to fade).

Mike.

sink

The truth is no one really knows. There is a thread in which people give their opinions here. I for one can't see how anything positive can come from a no vote.

brianthebard

we already have the precedent of France and the Netherlands, neither country was frozen out by the rest of the EU or anything else that the yes side has suggested.

jon1981

is it true only 15 states have signed up at present? or have all 26 done so? i read that somewhere, but it may have been an old article

Scofflaw

jon1981 wrote: »

hi,

im still undecided about voting and if I cannot make sense of it by this evening ill probably abstain as it makes more sense to have genuine voters that some idea than a load of voters that havent a clue. now lets say Lisbon does not get ratified i.e. we vote no.

what happens then? the status quo? will the other 26 decide to kick us out of europe or something ? :pac:

It's very hard to answer such a question without speculation, and without being accused of either scaremongering or bullying, but I'm not a politician, so I'll have a go!

The short answer is that technically, this is plan B.

The longer answer is - no, it won't be the status quo, because some of the institutional changes will go ahead anyway (because they were agreed in Nice). The EU will continue to change, but in uncertain directions.

We're not likely to be kicked out, although there's likely to be a surge of opinion in that direction from Yes voters all across Europe - so we can expect a roughish time from the governments of countries that would be majority Yes, like Spain. You also have to bear in mind that we would be turning down the changes that were made at the request of the Dutch and French after the Constitution was withdrawn, so even they are likely to be unhappy.

If you're really not sure, I suggest you go ahead and abstain. This is a serious decision, with potentially serious and not entirely predictable consequences. Still, check out some of the other threads here, because there's a lot less hysteria here than elsewhere.

cordially,
Scofflaw

jon1981

Scofflaw wrote: »

It's very hard to answer such a question without speculation, and without being accused of either scaremongering or bullying, but I'm not a politician, so I'll have a go!

The short answer is that technically, this is plan B.

The longer answer is - no, it won't be the status quo, because some of the institutional changes will go ahead anyway (because they were agreed in Nice). The EU will continue to change, but in uncertain directions.

We're not likely to be kicked out, although there's likely to be a surge of opinion in that direction from Yes voters all across Europe - so we can expect a roughish time from the governments of countries that would be majority Yes, like Spain. You also have to bear in mind that we would be turning down the changes that were made at the request of the Dutch and French after the Constitution was withdrawn, so even they are likely to be unhappy.

If you're really not sure, I suggest you go ahead and abstain. This is a serious decision, with potentially serious and not entirely predictable consequences. Still, check out some of the other threads here, because there's a lot less hysteria here than elsewhere.

cordially,
Scofflaw

after reading that, i bet bertie is glad hes out of this mess. Cowen must be sweating buckets. I believe the No camp has alot of support across Europe, would be interesting to see some unofficial survey figures of the member states.
Also it would be useful of the Yes camp actually printed the Vetoes that will remain for Ireland in back and white to put everyones mind at ease. I think what has most of the public confused is that they simply dont understand Europe, they know what Nice is or how it fits in to all this

craichoe

mike65 wrote: »

There is no plan B (repeat to fade).

Mike.

Either you misread the OPs question, or are just used to repeating what you've heard.

He means what happens if we vote no.. you answer makes no sense in that context.

The truthful answer is that no-one knows for sure

cornbb

We won't be kicked out of Europe. However, other European leaders have indicated that Ireland may be alienated as a result. This is not a threat, its a natural reaction. Can you imagine if 99.9% of the Irish people had agreed upon a matter of national importance only for the residents of the Aran Islands to block it? Because the proportion of Aran Islands to the rest of Ireland is the same proportion of Irish residents to the rest of Europe. The rest of us would find a way to proceed regardless, and we would be royally pissed off with the Islanders. While there may not be any official repercussions against Ireland, we would naturally be percieved as anti-EU, regarded as a pain in the ass and a black sheep of the EU.

The EU will go on, but a No vote would slow down its progress and development by years. The notion that we could re-negotiate to get a better deal is ludicrious, 26 other states aren't going to bow down to our demands. What demands would we make anyway? We have already gotten a great deal. I cannot possibly see any possible consequences from a No vote.

jon1981

thats true, we make up 2.8 million of 500 million voters..thats like .5% . its crazy to think there will be no reprisals for blocking this. There may be an element of the french in us now were us as a nation just like to say no.
I do believe that the way the world economy is going we are too small to be on our own and the last thing we want is for things to be made more difficult given the current economic climate.

But nobody likes to side with the bully...the member states and the yes should be more careful not to come across like a bully...might be already too late

althought give it 5 years and every kid in america will be thought about the country of europe...

O'Morris

cornbb wrote: »

We won't be kicked out of Europe. However, other European leaders have indicated that Ireland may be alienated as a result.

In the same way that they alienated the French and the Dutch when they voted against the EU constitution?

What could they possibly achieve by alienating Ireland as a result of a no vote? The only thing that would result from it would be increase in anti-EU feeling among Irish people.

cornbb

O'Morris wrote: »

In the same way that they alienated the French and the Dutch when they voted against the EU constitution?

What could they possibly achieve by alienating Ireland as a result of a no vote? The only thing that would result from it would be increase in anti-EU feeling among Irish people.

The Dutch and the French make up a substantial proportion of the EU membership. This is a case of "all eyes are on Ireland", we are only a drop in the ocean, with the potential to do a disproportionate amount of damage to the EU..

I doubt anyone would set out to alienate Ireland in any official/tangible manner, but there's little doubt it would damage our reputation as a pro-European country massively. That could have secondary, knock-on consequences whereby we may suffer in terms of job creation, foreign investment, developing cultural ties etc.

I'm honestly not trying to scare people here, I think this would be a rational, if unintentional, reaction from the rest of europe.

cornbb

jon1981 wrote: »

thats true, we make up 2.8 million of 500 million voters..thats like .5% . its crazy to think there will be no reprisals for blocking this. There may be an element of the french in us now were us as a nation just like to say no.
I do believe that the way the world economy is going we are too small to be on our own and the last thing we want is for things to be made more difficult given the current economic climate.

But nobody likes to side with the bully...the member states and the yes should be more careful not to come across like a bully...might be already too late

althought give it 5 years and every kid in america will be thought about the country of europe...

I think most European leaders have been careful not to bully us. But a simple statement like "Ireland will suffer if the treaty is not ratified" can come across as very threatening. I see it as a simple observation of fact, as I outlined above.

Every other state has ratified this treaty, via their democratically-elected governments. That fact alone is not a good enough reason to ratify the treaty, but even so, I think it would be very presumptuous to vote no "on behalf of" other Europeans, who have already had their say via their democratically-elected governments.

raido9

jon1981 wrote: »

is it true only 15 states have signed up at present? or have all 26 done so? i read that somewhere, but it may have been an old article

This will show you where it has been ratified and where it has not. And numbers for and against it.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Lisbon#Ratification

raido9

cornbb wrote: »

I think most European leaders have been careful not to bully us. But a simple statement like "Ireland will suffer if the treaty is not ratified" can come across as very threatening. I see it as a simple observation of fact, as I outlined above.

Every other state has ratified this treaty, via their democratically-elected governments. That fact alone is not a good enough reason to ratify the treaty, but even so, I think it would be very presumptuous to vote no "on behalf of" other Europeans, who have already had their say via their democratically-elected governments.

That is wrong, see above.

faceman

I would imagine that the rammifications for ireland could be severe, not just from a political perspective but from a business perspective too.

Despite what the French and Dutch view is on the treaty (and its not entirely no), all eyes are on ireland because its the people who will despite the future of other nations in the EU.

Although there can be no negative reprecussions to ireland as the result of a no vote, i imagine that many officials in europe will have a chip on their shoulder and i dont expect the EU to be as sympathetic to Irish needs going forward.

Also our non EU foreign investors. I wonder what their view is? Will they view ireland as a nation with non standard political stance? Will it effect business decisions? Could it? I dont know. Either way ireland doesnt need uncertainity like this while we are already in the throws of economic uncertainity.

mike65

craichoe wrote: »

Either you misread the OPs question, or are just used to repeating what you've heard.

He means what happens if we vote no.. you answer makes no sense in that context.

The "repeat to fade" should have tipped you the wink, nevermind.

I'm simply relaying what "they" tell me to say



Mike.

cornbb

raido9 wrote: »

That is wrong, see above.

Whoops, my bad.

I can't see any other countries rejecting it, though, given the overwhelmingly large trend for "yes" votes from national parliaments.

raido9

cornbb wrote: »

Whoops, my bad.

I can't see any other countries rejecting it, though, given the overwhelmingly large trend for "yes" votes from national parliaments.

I'd say your right, so far the closest vote was in the British House of Commons : 346 yes to 206 no. (81 Abstaining)

jon1981

cornbb wrote: »

Whoops, my bad.

I can't see any other countries rejecting it, though, given the overwhelmingly large trend for "yes" votes from national parliaments.

maybe they are waiting for us to say no so they wont have to

mike65

Still to ratify

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Lisbon#Ratification

Mike

runswithascript

The Lisbon Treaty is plan B.

heyjude

Scofflaw wrote: »

We're not likely to be kicked out, although there's likely to be a surge of opinion in that direction from Yes voters all across Europe -

We're not likely to be kicked out because there is no mechanism for a country to be kicked out. As for being worried about a surge in support for us to be kicked out, from Yes voters all across Europe, well that too is impossible since we are the only country that is actually having a vote on the issue, so the only actual Yes or No voters on the Lisbon Treaty will be cast here and Yes voters here won't be calling for us to be kicked out, will they.

In all the other countries, the Treaty will be passed by parliament and that despite promises in Portugal, France, Britain and possibly the Netherlands too, that their would be a referendum on the Treaty. Still maybe the governments of these countries may feel that they would have far fewer Yes voters than they'd like.

cornbb wrote: »

We won't be kicked out of Europe. However, other European leaders have indicated that Ireland may be alienated as a result. This is not a threat, its a natural reaction. Can you imagine if 99.9% of the Irish people had agreed upon a matter of national importance only for the residents of the Aran Islands to block it?........... . While there may not be any official repercussions against Ireland, we would naturally be percieved as anti-EU, regarded as a pain in the ass and a black sheep of the EU.

The EU will go on, but a No vote would slow down its progress and development by years. The notion that we could re-negotiate to get a better deal is ludicrious, 26 other states aren't going to bow down to our demands. What demands would we make anyway? We have already gotten a great deal. I cannot possibly see any possible consequences from a No vote.

So we should vote YES so as not to upset the rest of Europes' policticians because a small country shouldn't get in the way by disagreeing with something that the majority have agreed with. If this is so, then what use is having a veto on any European matter ? Or perhaps we are only supposed to use this veto, when we are in the majority(i.e when we don't need a veto)

Besides as you say, you can't see any possible consequences from a NO vote, so no consequences then why not vote NO ?

cornbb wrote: »

The Dutch and the French make up a substantial proportion of the EU membership. This is a case of "all eyes are on Ireland", we are only a drop in the ocean, with the potential to do a disproportionate amount of damage to the EU..

I doubt anyone would set out to alienate Ireland in any official/tangible manner, but there's little doubt it would damage our reputation as a pro-European country massively. That could have secondary, knock-on consequences whereby we may suffer in terms of job creation, foreign investment, developing cultural ties etc.

I'm honestly not trying to scare people here, I think this would be a rational, if unintentional, reaction from the rest of europe.

France may make up a substantial proportion of the EU population, but the Netherlands has just 16.5m people(approx 4% of the EU population) and it doesn't seem to have suffered much alienation. We seem to be getting dangerously close to the notion that unless you are one of the biggest EU states, then you have no right to say NO to anything that the EU proposes.

faceman wrote: »

Despite what the French and Dutch view is on the treaty (and its not entirely no)

The Referendum result in both countries was NO, I'm not sure what you mean by "not entirely no", the majority of votes cast in both countries said No. You will find here tomorrow, that if the Yes side wins even by a single vote, then the Treaty will be entirely ratified, the issue of the margin will only arise if the Treaty is defeated, in which case the government will portray a narrow defeat as requiring another vote.

faceman wrote: »

Although there can be no negative reprecussions to ireland as the result of a no vote, i imagine that many officials in europe will have a chip on their shoulder and i dont expect the EU to be as sympathetic to Irish needs going forward.

I wasn't aware that in a 27 country European Union, there was much sympathy towards Irish needs either from the EU itself or its officials. There may have been when the EC(as it was then) had just 12 members, but not now.

faceman wrote: »

Also our non EU foreign investors. I wonder what their view is? Will they view ireland as a nation with non standard political stance? Will it effect business decisions? Could it? I dont know. Either way ireland doesnt need uncertainity like this while we are already in the throws of economic uncertainity.

There was a story a few days ago that Michael Dell of Dell Computers wanted to come out in support of the No campaign, but was prevented by the companys' directors. If this is true, the it would suggest that foreign multinationals aren't as supportive of the Lisbon Treaty as Yes campaigners seem to claim.

jon1981 wrote: »

maybe they are waiting for us to say no so they wont have to

Excellent point. If I was a political leader in an EU country that had some doubts about the treaty, then I'd be waiting till after the Irish vote too.

jon1981

LA3G wrote: »

The Lisbon Treaty is plan B.

was waiting for someone to say that :pac:

Scofflaw

There was a story a few days ago that Michael Dell of Dell Computers wanted to come out in support of the No campaign, but was prevented by the companys' directors. If this is true, the it would suggest that foreign multinationals aren't as supportive of the Lisbon Treaty as Yes campaigners seem to claim.

Or alternatively could be seen as yet another American 'individual entrepreneur' being temperamentally opposed to the Treaty, but being restrained by those who actually run the day to day business.

cordially,
Scofflaw

democrates

If EU politicians somehow punished Ireland for voting No it would only turn more people across member states against the EU project, it would be a clear demonstration of the EU being bad for a member state. So I don't see that happening.

While elements of the EU body politic may have harsh words for our politicians failing to sway the people, they must accept that the main parties here supported a yes vote. (Incidentally, Labour want to be in the next government which would mean mixing it with other EU politicians, it's a no-brainer that being perceived as "good Europeans" would make life easier.)

Other EU politicians would also face a counter-argument, that they have not given their own citizens any say despite having that option, so they're in a poor position to criticise. Initially a No vote would be put down to the ignorance of the masses, as fits with their elitist perspective.

What is plan C then. That depends on the competence and vision of politicians. If they insist that unless they get exactly what they want, they have no vision for any other way forward, then they aren't qualified for the job.

It is conceivable that maybe, just maybe, they might finally decide that the future of the EU should have the support of EU citizens, and if they really believe that to be the case then they can start making up the trust deficit by trusting citizens.