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HU odds question

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  • 06-06-2008 11:13am
    #1
    pierce hard
    Closed Accounts Posts: 313 ✭✭


    I was having this discussion in the pub last night.

    Say some ordinary poker player (a marginal loser, been playing casually for a few years in home games, occasionally ventures into casinos etc) plays one heads up match against a top pro (phil ivey, patrick antonious etc).

    What odds would people give on the match if you were to open a book on it? There were 2 different trains of thought on it.

    None of us have any experience running a book\giving odds on things and im just curious as what kind of range the odds would fall into.


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    #2
    HoLLLLLaments
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,019 ✭✭✭HoLLLLLaments


    structure?


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    #3
    smurph
    Registered Users Posts: 2,077 ✭✭✭smurph


    obviously the deeper the stacks the bigger edge the pro would have.

    He would play small pots, slowing destroying his opponent while deciding where to go play golf.....


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    #4
    pierce hard
    Closed Accounts Posts: 313 ✭✭pierce hard


    Just assume 100bbs starting, half hour clock, i just want ballpark numbers to go with.
    Thanks.


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    #5
    5starpool
    Subscribers Posts: 32,849 ✭✭✭✭5starpool


    4/9 and 7/4?

    If he used a kill Phil type strategy though the odds would probably be closer.

    All imo of course.


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    #6
    hotspur
    Registered Users Posts: 2,327 ✭✭✭hotspur


    Were the 2 trains of thought
    1) "If it's a shallow structure the recreational player can adopt the non-exploitable SAGE system to give himself a pretty good chance and avoid being outplayed by Ivey"
    2) "No just because it's not exploitable doesn't mean it's optimal, besides he has to already have only 10bb left to make it work, assuming he hasn't got Ivey down to that"

    or
    1) "Listen (hic) Ivey and Antonius right, right, are ye listenin' to me, right, are bleedin brilliant and there's no f***in' way a bleedin' muppet is gonna come along and beat them ye? D'ye, d'ye understand wha' I'm sayin' to ye head?"

    2) "Shut up you ye' eejit ye, of course anyone has a shot at beatin' dem, yeah a pint of Bulmers yeah, what were we talkin' about? Oh yeah, sure it's all bleedin' luck anyway dat poker, I'd probably batter de head off dat Ivey."


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    #7
    HoLLLLLaments
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,019 ✭✭✭HoLLLLLaments


    pierce hard wrote: »
    Just assume 100bbs starting, half hour clock, i just want ballpark numbers to go with.
    Thanks.
    id estimate Ivey wins with this about 75%-85% of the time vs sum1 who cant beat low steaks live poker


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    #8
    doke
    Registered Users Posts: 872 ✭✭✭doke


    I'd back Ivey at 3 to 1 on, but not 4 to 1.

    I play a lot of low stakes HU to blow off steam when I don't feel like playing serious poker, and my win rate is 72%. I'd expect Ivey to be better than that, but it still comes down to the cards often enough that I couldn't see him winning much more than 80%.


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