NDP in trouble?

mike65

What do we think?

Latest growth estimates of 1 and 2 % for 2008 and 2009 resulting in an unavoidable deficit, will the government take the easy way out and slash aspects of the NDP while completing the high-profile T21 projects?

What would be likely to fall by the wayside and if some hard desicions have to be taken which schemes should be long-fingered?

http://www.ndp.ie/docs/NDP_Homepage/1131.htm

Mike.

spacetweek

mike65 wrote: »

What do we think?

Latest growth estimates of 1 and 2 % for 2008 and 2009 resulting in an unavoidable deficit, will the government take the easy way out and slash aspects of the NDP while completing the high-profile T21 projects?

What would be likely to fall by the wayside and if some hard desicions have to be taken which schemes should be long-fingered?

http://www.ndp.ie/docs/NDP_Homepage/1131.htm

Mike.

What is the point of speculation like this? The economy's long term potential is still strong. This is still a country with a huge amount of reconstruction to be getting on with - population growth, new housing, renovated old housing, new public buildings, new transport infrastructure, etc.

If it came to it, I would push out some of the more extravagant aspects of the roads program (expensive dual carriageways in places like Tralee, Westport, Ballina, Lifford, etc.) and put them off for 10 years. In other words, make the NRA's road building program last until about 2025 until 2015.

Highest priority is the motorways (interurban and Atlantic Corridor) and the national railway and metro projects. No pushing out here, regardless of financial position. Borrow if necessary, or go PPP. For a motorway, go toll. It's better than nothing and you can always buy out.

mike65

What is the point of speculation like this?...If it came to it, I would push out some of the more extravagant aspects of the roads program

Well done. Its called discussion.

Mike.

gurramok

spacetweek wrote: »

What is the point of speculation like this? The economy's long term potential is still strong. This is still a country with a huge amount of reconstruction to be getting on with - population growth, new housing, renovated old housing, new public buildings, new transport infrastructure, etc.

If it came to it, I would push out some of the more extravagant aspects of the roads program (expensive dual carriageways in places like Tralee, Westport, Ballina, Lifford, etc.) and put them off for 10 years. In other words, make the NRA's road building program last until about 2025 until 2015.

Highest priority is the motorways (interurban and Atlantic Corridor) and the national railway and metro projects. No pushing out here, regardless of financial position. Borrow if necessary, or go PPP. For a motorway, go toll. It's better than nothing and you can always buy out.

Economy may have strength but in case you didn't know there are too many houses and it's suffering because of it.

Agree that highest priority stuff should continue, borrow or PPP

spacetweek

gurramok wrote: »

Economy may have strength but in case you didn't know there are too many houses and it's suffering because of it.

Eh? There is still huge housing demand in Ireland. It's just that right now, people are afraid to buy in case they end up with *negative equity* (cue dramatic music).

Amtmann

Ok so can someone in the know put up a list of infrastructural projects that will be indefinitely postponed in light of the coming cutbacks?

More importantly, what projects definitely will still be going ahead? I'm particularly interested in Road, Rail and Metro.

Thanks

mike65

No-one knows yet. There is a government meeting today I wonder if they have the stomach for any decisions. Metro North and West are the most likely canditates for the long-finger.

Mike.

1huge1

Furet wrote: »

Ok so can someone in the know put up a list of infrastructural projects that will be indefinitely postponed in light of the coming cutbacks?


Thanks

WRC northern part to sligo

gurramok

spacetweek wrote: »

Eh? There is still huge housing demand in Ireland. It's just that right now, people are afraid to buy in case they end up with *negative equity* (cue dramatic music).

No there is not huge housing demand(points you to Accommodation forum).

We're extremely lucky to get the M50 upgrades done/in progress before all this scaling back begins.
Imagine the M50 staying the same for years, the horror

Still, it's a pity none of the cities are connected via direct motorway yet if they will ever be depending on present decisions.

mike65

The current M-ways are all safe.

Mike.

serfboard

gurramok wrote: »

Still, it's a pity none of the cities are connected via direct motorway yet if they will ever be depending on present decisions.

They will be connected to Dublin, but not to each other :mad:

jank

This is the time where we catch up on infrastructure not delay it!!
Idiots!

Irish and Proud

serfboard wrote: »

They will be connected to Dublin, but not to each other :mad:

Agree!

Are the Inter-urban ex Dublin motorways not essential for the National Spatial Strategy? Even with the current recession, we still need to plan for future development so that we are ready for the next economic upturn instead of playing catch-up, like we were doing during the Celtic Tiger era.

IMO, the Celtic Tiger economic boom lasted from 1996 to 2001 - yes I mean 2001!, the 2002 to 2006 boom was based on credit (basically lent from European banks) and pure speculation (basically a pyramid scheme that we called the Irish Property Market), and was therefore false! Now, we have quite a mess to sort out, but where there is a will...

Regards!

fricatus

mike65 wrote: »

The current M-ways are all safe.

Mike.

Yeah, the M1 is complete as far as the border and the other four (Dublin to Cork/Galway/Waterford/Limerick are all under construction (some sections are already complete).

They can't pull them now, thank goodness.

Amtmann

From today's Irish Independent: http://www.independent.ie/national-news/taoiseach-gives-strongest-sign-yet-of-major-cutbacks-1413506.html

Meanwhile, in another sign of the Government re-jigging its plans, Transport Minister Noel Dempsey said he could categorically say that, as of now, there were no plans to defer any projects under Transport21 on the basis of the current financial situation. However, he could not give an assurance that money would not be moved around in Transport21.

He said the essence of Transport21 was that money would not go back to the Exchequer if a project could not start on time. He could not give totally reliable competition dates but said there were no changes in the timetables for Metro North or Metro West in Dublin.

spacetweek

gurramok wrote: »

Still, it's a pity none of the cities are connected via direct motorway yet if they will ever be depending on present decisions.

Some info on rail projects cancelled/going ahead (unverified) is here.

The motorways are a sure thing since they're all under construction now and can't be cancelled. I predict 2013 for Tuam-Cork.

Furet wrote: »

From today's Irish Independent:[/url]

That article was vague. Even if money can't go back to the exchequer, they could still postpone projects. It just means that they will complete all of Transport 21 but aren't saying when.

serfboard

Furet wrote: »

From today's Irish Independent: http://www.independent.ie/national-news/taoiseach-gives-strongest-sign-yet-of-major-cutbacks-1413506.html

Sorry to be pedantic, but this article is actually dated June 18th. Things have moved on (i.e. gotten worse ... in the sense that we really realise how bad things are) since then.

Despite that, Noel Dempsey's vacuous statements such as "no plans" and "as of now" are completely meaningless. One gets a sense that they have absolutely no clue as to what to do ... and it's not just me saying that. I was listening to the radio this morning and all three seasoned political observers there were saying the same thing.

So, in relation to the NDP, it seems to me, as people have said in this and other threads, that if it has started already, it's safe. If not, all bets are off.

Amtmann

serfboard wrote: »

Sorry to be pedantic, but this article is actually dated June 18th. Things have moved on (i.e. gotten worse ... in the sense that we really realise how bad things are) since then.

Despite that, Noel Dempsey's vacuous statements such as "no plans" and "as of now" are completely meaningless. One gets a sense that they have absolutely no clue as to what to do ... and it's not just me saying that. I was listening to the radio this morning and all three seasoned political observers there were saying the same thing.

So, in relation to the NDP, it seems to me, as people have said in this and other threads, that if it has started already, it's safe. If not, all bets are off.

Oops, my bad. I thought it was from today's paper. Apologies lads.