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FA cup Final

  • 06-05-2008 4:26pm
    #1
    BHW
    Closed Accounts Posts: 94 ✭✭


    I have pompey backed at 20/1 from a while back, 25 euro on this.

    Best price i can get on cardiff to win is 5/2.

    Whats my best opition.

    Im looking to guarantee some profit, what you think?

    Thanks.


Comments

  • #2
    myflipflops
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,817 ✭✭✭myflipflops


    How much profit do you want to lock in?

    My advice is to go onto Betfair and lay pompey at 1.38 (a bit over 4/11). If you lay them for €250, you risk a €95 liability. If you did then you would win 250 (before the commision) if Cardiff win and 405 if Pompey win.


  • #3
    johnnysmurfman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 406 ✭✭johnnysmurfman


    If Portsmouth win the cup you win 500 euro. If they lose you get nothing. If I were you I'd place 150 euro on Cardiff at 5/2. Then if Cardiff win you are up 355 euro, (375 - 20 outlay on Portsmouth). If Portsmouth win it you are up 350 (500-150 on Cardiff). That way you guarantee yourself a profit of 350.


  • #4
    Mellor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,902 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


    johnnysmurfman wrote: »
    If Portsmouth win the cup you win 500 euro. If they lose you get nothing. If I were you I'd place 150 euro on Cardiff at 5/2. Then if Cardiff win you are up 355 euro, (375 - 20 outlay on Portsmouth). If Portsmouth win it you are up 350 (500-150 on Cardiff). That way you guarantee yourself a profit of 350.
    the problem with that is that it gives equal priority to each team, since the teams are not wqual, i'd weigh it towards Pompey,


    I'd place €50 on Cardiff,

    Pompey win = +€450
    Cardiff Win = +€175

    I think thats a decent win either way, and is nicely weighted towards pompey, (if you use the odds from betfair that pwhite posted then the cardiff win amount increases, a bet on cardiff to win is the same as laying pompey)


  • #5
    BHW
    Closed Accounts Posts: 94 ✭✭BHW


    50 on cardiff is only 100 profit. -orginal 25 -50 bet


    I think ill put 100 on cardiff, 350 return
    -100 -25
    =275 profit

    pompey win 525
    -100 -25
    =400 profit

    Thanks for replys, still a while to go ill see what mood im in, team news, etc.

    I cant see pompey losing but i still wanna lock in some profit.


    ps i cant be use betfair


  • #6
    Mellor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,902 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


    Sorry that that should read +€125,
    I didn't deduct the €25 original bet as its not yours anymore. Its a concept used alot in other fors of gambling. Its is different to bet you were to place now. There you consider the cost vrs return, but as you can't change the value of the previous bet, it should be considered as a potential €500


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