Jupiter Pluvius

ChuckProphet

What's peoples thoughts on this horse for the 2000 guineas? He's a best priced 10-1. Is he defo the #1 choice for Ballydoyle for the race?

kincsem

His two runs were at an average of 12.95 and 12.74 seconds a furlong. Until he has proved he can move faster that that I would not be interested. I always want to see evidence that a horse can run fast. The ground is often fast in Newmarket, as it dries very quickly. His sire Johannesburg was a sprinter. I'm not interested in him.

I put the times of 65 runs by the leading contenders into a spreadsheet. Those times per furlong were 60th and 57th. You are betting on Aidan o'Brien, not the horse. He could win, but I am not backing him.

Mont

kincsem wrote: »

His two runs were at an average of 12.95 and 12.74 seconds a furlong. Until he has proved he can move faster that that I would not be interested. I always want to see evidence that a horse can run fast. The ground is often fast in Newmarket, as it dries very quickly. His sire Johannesburg was a sprinter. I'm not interested in him.

I put the times of 65 runs by the leading contenders into a spreadsheet. Those times per furlong were 60th and 57th. You are betting on Aidan o'Brien, not the horse. He could win, but I am not backing him.

Fascinating - any chance of a look at this

I quite fancy Ravens Pass for this - he looked pretty good in the Craven

jayroyal

kincsem wrote: »

His two runs were at an average of 12.95 and 12.74 seconds a furlong. Until he has proved he can move faster that that I would not be interested. I always want to see evidence that a horse can run fast. The ground is often fast in Newmarket, as it dries very quickly. His sire Johannesburg was a sprinter. I'm not interested in him.

I put the times of 65 runs by the leading contenders into a spreadsheet. Those times per furlong were 60th and 57th. You are betting on Aidan o'Brien, not the horse. He could win, but I am not backing him.

amazing stuff well done who finished first in the list take it was new approach, He's surely a good thing pity he hasn't run this year yet.

mervuedude

The only thing I'd say about Jupitor Pluvius is that Ladbrokes are 2 points longer than everyone else. Mike Dillon (ladbrokes supremo) is very close to the stable so why is he longer than the rest. I've backed Ravens Pass at 33/1, not too confident after his craven run though. I hear on the grapevine that New Approach will win all b4 him this year. I hope not.

mike65

33/1? Before the Craven then! Now 5/1. New approach is 7/4-ish so hardly worth a punt now. An e/w on Perfect Stride at 21/1 might be canny, word from the gallops is very positive.

Mike.

Robin1982

kincsem wrote: »

His two runs were at an average of 12.95 and 12.74 seconds a furlong. Until he has proved he can move faster that that I would not be interested. I always want to see evidence that a horse can run fast. The ground is often fast in Newmarket, as it dries very quickly. His sire Johannesburg was a sprinter. I'm not interested in him.

I put the times of 65 runs by the leading contenders into a spreadsheet. Those times per furlong were 60th and 57th. You are betting on Aidan o'Brien, not the horse. He could win, but I am not backing him.

Average seconds per furlong won't tell you much at all about the pace of a race, never mind about the effect of the ground, wind, distance etc. It also ignores course configuation. Can't see how it alone could be useful at all.

Colonel Sanders

ChuckProphet wrote: »

Is he defo the #1 choice for Ballydoyle for the race?

drifting like a barge and cash for Henrythenavigator. Talk on the Betfair forum that Murtagh rides Henry

ChuckProphet

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

drifting like a barge and cash for Henrythenavigator. Talk on the Betfair forum that Murtagh rides Henry

thankfully i didn't back him in the end

kincsem

Sorry I didn't get back to answer the questions, but I hadn't logged on to boards since that post.

The top ten times pre-Guineas were -

Rio De la Plata ..... 11.64 non runner
Nownownow ........ 11.91 non runner
New Approach ......11.93 2nd
Rio De la Plata ......11.98 non runner
Rio De la Plata.......12.03 non runner
Fireside................12.08 15th
Henrythenavigator..12.08 1st
Paco Boy..............12.11 non runner
Paco Boy..............12.14 non runner

I adjusted for beaten lengths .... one second for five lengths.

The comment that that analysis would be useless, because it didn't take into account weight carried, distance, going, slopes, wind and so on would be a standard approach, and you would do what everyone else does.

But Cockney Rebel (1st) and Vital Equine (2nd) ran the two fastest times before the 2007 2000 Guineas in the 2006 Champagne Stakes 7f, York (Vital Equine 1st; Eagle Mountain 2nd 1/2l; Cockney Rebel 3rd shd.).

Perhaps you should throw out all five furlong form, all form on ground softer than good, and all form where the race was run around a bend, when analysing the 2000 Guineas field?

Best ten times pre-1000 Guineas
Laureldean Gale ......11.60 13th
Saoirse Abu............11.77 3rd
Natagora................11.93 1st
Lush Lashes............12.04 6th
Savethisdanceforme..12.05 10th
Nahoodh.................12.10 5th
Visit......................12.12 non runner
Kitty Matchem.........12.13 9th
Saoirse Abu.............12.14 3rd
Nahoodh.................12.14 5th

I ignored Natagora's times ar 4,5f; 5f; 5.5f. They were faster, but then any horse would be faster at 5f.

Newmarket ground is almost always on the fast side, and the course is straight, and flat (a 4 inch rise for the first five furlongs). So why take into account form on soft ground, or around a bend? It is a speed test.

I backed Ibn Khaldun and Saoirse Abu (at 65s win and 12s for a place). I laid Infallible to place in the 1000.