There is a new term coming out now - Growth Regression!

blue shimmering

Does this term not really contradict itself? Growth - meaning improving etc.. and recession - meaning the opposite which is going back (not improving)!

How can these two terms be used together and actually what does it mean - is this the beginning or the end?:rolleyes:

Your comments please!:eek::eek::eek::eek:

This was in the Irish Times last Friday and I would like to get others views on it! It was in an article by Paul Tansey and was to do with the economy (Irish) what is forecast for the next year and now these figures have to be revised downwards! My understanding is that this is what he is referring to as still being a growth but at the same time the figures are reduced so it is going more towards a recession!

nesf

Could you give the context it was used in? It could be using regression in the sense of regression analysis as a method of comparing growth rates in countries. The only places I remember seeing "economic growth regression" was talking about "cross country growth regressions" which is a form of econometric analysis that you can use when you're studying the growth behaviour in a bunch of different countries.

I don't have a very deep knowledge of growth theory though so it might have other meanings as well. It strikes me as a little odd that the Irish Times would use a technical term like "growth regression" without qualifying it (ie explaining it).

blue shimmering

nesf wrote: »

Could you give the context it was used in? It could be using regression in the sense of regression analysis as a method of comparing growth rates in countries. The only places I remember seeing "economic growth regression" was talking about "cross country growth regressions" which is a form of econometric analysis that you can use when you're studying the growth behaviour in a bunch of different countries.

I don't have a very deep knowledge of growth theory though so it might have other meanings as well. It strikes me as a little odd that the Irish Times would use a technical term like "growth regression" without qualifying it (ie explaining it).

Sorry this was my mistake - a typing error, it should have read growth recession! They do explain it to a certain extent and I have edited above as to why this term has emerged, it seems to be in relation to new forecast figures of growth that have been revised downwards!

nesf

blue shimmering wrote: »

Sorry this was my mistake - a typing error, it should have read growth recession! They do explain it to a certain extent and I have edited above as to why this term has emerged, it seems to be in relation to new forecast figures of growth that have been revised downwards!

It could just be referring to a reduction in the rate of growth. Recession implies negative real GDP growth from some definitions, the "likely" scenario for Ireland is a strong reduction in real GDP growth but it will stay positive. I've seen "recession" being used to refer to periods of unusually weak GDP growth rather than actual negative growth and they might have been using the term "growth recession" to highlight that they weren't predicting a recession in the traditional sense of the word.

This isn't my area though so someone else who is deeper into it might be able to give you a better answer.

Ekancone

Basically what nesf said. Year-on-year average growth rates may be positive while the rates relative to the previous period may be negative. Therefore the economy is increasing at a decreasing rate. I wouldn't worry too much about the semantics of 'growth recession', remember that words are our slaves, not our masters.