Grand National write up

Sean Foley

from those tipping service lads I know.

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Grand National 2008

Like many of the Championship races at Cheltenham The Grand National often follows strong statistical trends. This is not to say that the winner has to satisfy all the trends of previous victors but there are several criteria which it would be folly not to consider.

Stamina is obviously a big factor. Only one previous winner had never won at three miles or more. That includes every winner since 1970, so the old adage of horses who are two and a half mile specialists being suited to the demands of the National is way off the mark. However a horse does need to possess good tactical pace, so an out and out plodder is not ideal either, unless the ground came up bottomless, which now seems highly unlikely.

The best weight carrying performance in the past 50 years was by - not surprisingly - Red Rum who carried 12 Stone to victory in 1972. Considering his ability over C/D, and the fact that in the past two decades no horse has carried over 11-1 to victory, then those toward the top of the handicap face a stiff task. However the weights are more compressed this season and this stat may not be as strong as it has been in recent seasons.

This race is not suited either to the young or old generation (in Chasing terms). It has been nearly 70 years since a horse younger than eight won the Grand National. Experience is also a big advantage because it is 50 years since a Novice won the race, and he was an eight year old. Horses aged 8 and 12 shouldn't be discounted but the winner is more likely to be aged between 9 and 11.

Horses are being trained specifically for this race more often nowadays. However the winner often comes from those that have not been over raced in the current season. Conversely the selection should be fit and race hardened. Horses with 4-6 runs in the season do best and every winner of the race in recent years had an outing within 50 days of the race.

This is not a race normally suited by those with headgear, especially worn by those that like to come from off the pace. 146 have taken part since 1975 and only one has prevailed. Prior to that only one horse had achieved the feat since the war, and that was the fortunate Foinavon.

Recent seasons have been dominated by the Irish who have won six of the last nine renewals.

This race has not been one suited to French bred horses, the last winner being Lutteur III back in 1909.

The runners:

Hedgehunter (12 y o carrying 11-12).
Top weight and not getting any younger. Seems in better form than he was at this time last season and the choice of Ruby Walsh. Skipped the Gold Cup this year so he will come here fresher and his previous experience is a big asset. Ignore his weight and he wouldn't be without a chance but it would be a surprise if something didn't have the legs of him for win purposes. The drying ground could also mean he may have to go a bit faster than he ideally wants.

Hi Cloy (11 y o carrying 11-12).
Winner of the Grade One Melling Chase here in 2006 but infrequent forays at around three miles seems to suggest that connections are not convinced he is a strong stayer. Does have a Novice win over three miles to his name but that four runner affair in 2006 didn't tell us much. Will handle the ground but, even though Ginger McCain once thought he was an ideal type for this race, it would take a leap of faith to back him under top weight.

Knowhere (10 y o carrying 11-11)
Improved this season but it is far from certain that he will be suited by the demands of this race. Unseated on the first circuit last year and has been blighted by jumping mistakes in two of his last three outings. Won a Grade Two at Cheltenham in between and, although that form now looks decent, there is a suspicion that the second and third were short of their peak. Distance, flat track, weight and the tendency to make mistakes make him a risky proposition and unlikely winner.

Mr Pointment (9 y o carrying 11-11)
Made everyone sit up and take note when he won the Becher Chase over 26 furlongs here in November. Jumped the National fences with aplomb in only his fifth start over the big obstacles but the handicapper duly took note with a nine pound rise in the weights. Broke a blood vessel at Doncaster subsequently and that has to be a concern in a race of this nature. Deserted by Ruby Walsh, has plenty of weight and has only had three races this season. Looks a risky proposition given he finished distressed in his first race since November last time out. However the manner of his victory in the Becher makes him one of the more interesting of those at the head of the weights.

Turko (6 y o carrying 11-10)
Six year old, plenty of weight and, despite his admirable strike rate, has never won a Chase in a field containing more than nine runners. At his best going left handed and probably doesn't get the credit he deserves but this test produces enough negatives to discard.

Madison Du Berlais (7 y o carrying 11-9)
Yet to win beyond 20 furlongs although he does seem to have improved over longer trips recently. Looks harshly weighted and won't inspire many being a French bred.

Simon (9 y o carrying 11-7)
Satisfies a lot of the trends and has shown he can carry weight. Going well when falling late on in this race last season and hasn't done much wrong in his prep races for this. All his wins have come on slower ground than he is likely to encounter here but he has handled faster in this campaign. Nagging doubts concerning his tactical pace and the fact remains he is eight pounds higher in the handicap this year, despite not winning since. Couple that with the burden of 11-7 and his task is not an easy one. However if her can lay up with the pace it's not difficult to see him being involved.

Iron Man (7 y o carrying 11-5)
Hasn't completed in two previous attempts over these fences (Becher and Topham) and has pulled up in his last two outings. Wears headgear, five of his seven wins have come going right handed and the stable form remains a concern. Looks to have been handicapped on his form around Market Rasen when the sun was shining and hard to find many positives.

Fundamentalist (10 y o carrying 11-4)
Slowly coming back to form but this doesn't look his type of race at all. Won a Novice hurdle race over 25 furlongs but nearly all evidence to date suggests he struggles beyond 21 furlongs. Jumping can sometimes be a concern and this is a million miles from the smaller fields he has dominated to win twice this season. Jockey bookings suggest he is favoured over the stables other two confirmed runners and, if that's the case, I would have reservations about any of them taking a hand (Naunton Brook, Knowhere).

Butler's Cabin (8 y o carrying 11-3)
Entered the Winter months as market leader for this but he hasn't sighted the winner in three races this season. Respected being the choice of Tony McCoy and the hope is that the return to an extreme trip brings about an improved performance. There is a chance that two hard fought victories in the NH Chase at the Festival and the Irish National has bottomed him. That victory in the Irish national has served as a great trial for this race but a twelve pound higher mark and recent form do not make him appealing at his current price of around 16/1.

Slim Pickings (9 y o carrying 11-3)
Seven pounds higher in the handicap than when coming third last season but his yard have laid him out for this renewal and have been careful to protect his mark by running him over hurdles in two of his four races this season. Ran well enough over a trip too short last month and should be cherry ripe for this. Maybe a stronger horse this season and could settle better but he needs to find improvement from somewhere to win. Not impossible he will but not sure he represents much in the way of value at his current price.

Chelsea Harbour (8 y o carrying 11-2)
Carried 11-10 to win the Grand National trial over 28 furlongs in heavy ground at Punchestown in February. However he was giving 12 pounds and upwards to the rest of the field from a mark of 130 so the quality of that race is of little consequence in the context of the National. Handicapper has also taken a dim view by raising him 16 pounds for this. He is not the biggest horse and it's maybe not surprising in the light of that he makes the odd howler. Stamina not an issue but the ground is likely to be faster than ideal and, along with the jumping frailties and harsh mark, he faces a much stiffer task than many believe.

Vodka Bleu (9 y o carrying 11-2)
Showed a welcome return to form this season but he was well beaten in the Topham last season and he is the sort to soon let you know if he is not enjoying himself. His only Chase win over three miles came at Ascot this season but it could be argued that he didn't beat a field of strong stayers. French bred and stamina for an extreme trip is a concern. Sports headgear and deserted by Timmy Murphy in favour of Comply and Die.

L'Ami (9 y o carrying 11-1)
French bred, French trained and faded to be well beaten in this last season. Plenty of experience and looked to be coming to hand at Chetenham but, even though the handicapper has cut him some slack, he has a poor strike rate and there are serious stamina doubts. Sports headgear and given the elbow by Tony McCoy.

Snowy Morning (8 y o carrying 11-1)
Relatively inexperienced over fences (just nine starts) but created a favourable impression when winning over 20 furlongs at Punchestown in December and arguably ran even better when third to The Listener off levels in the Grade One Hennessy Cognac Gold cup at Leopardstown in February. However he blotted his form book last time out at Fairyhouse and his jumping there would be a concern if he were to repeat it over these fences. This is a tough race in which to redeem a reputation but he could be well handicapped if he gets into a rhythm and he will not mind the quicker ground. Connections are unlikely to risk such a talent if they had not been encouraged by his schooling since that last race but prices of around 20/1 are probably a truer reflection of his chances than the earlier prices which had him as favourite when the weights were announced.

Bewleys Berry (10 y o carrying 11-0)
Didn't have the ideal preparation for this when pulling up at Haydock last time out but that was his first outing for four months and he was well beaten in the same race before running well in last seasons National. Runner up to Mr Pointment in the Becher in November and weighted to turn the tables. He was travelling and jumping well when falling at Bechers the second time round last season but he still has to convince that he has the stamina to win over this far. However he is an athletic horse for whom the drying ground will not be a hindrance. He still looks competitively handicapped and his stable are beginning to find their form again. Given he has only gone beyond 26 furlongs on three occasions, and two of them were being used to peak him, it may be unwise to assume he won't stay. Ticks most other boxes and looks a serious contender.

Contraband (10 y o carrying 11-0)
Has no place in this field on the form he has shown over the past two years. Not bred for extreme distances and never won beyond 17 furlongs. Surely there are easier races than this for him, even if they are only used to reduce his handicap mark.

McKelvey (9 y o carrying 11-0)
Picked up a tendon injury in finishing a gallant second last season. Only had the two races since, both over hurdles, and showed little on either occasion. This has probably come too soon for him and it's doubtful he would be considered by many if it were not for that effort in last season's race. Hopefully he will come back safe and return to form in time for next season's renewal.

Joacci ( 8 y o carrying 10-13)
Comes into this race on the back of a longer break than ideal and this may not be the race in which to sport first time blinkers. On the positive side he is well handicapped, will handle the ground and all five of his Chase victories have come between 24 and 28 furlongs. Has very much two ways of running, and yet to win at Graded level, but he is one of those horses who is capable of running a big race if he fancies it. inconsistency, headgear and a lack of race sharpness are sufficient negatives to make him unlikely win material but he is a big price for one of his ability.

Point Barrow (10 y o carrying 10-13)
Co favourite for this race last season but didn't get further than the first. Seems to be strong in the stamina department but isn't in the same kind of form as he was coming into last season's race. Sports the blinkers this time round and their presence in his last three races suggests connections are not entirely happy with him. Has the ability but whether it can be rekindled is the question he needs to answer.

D'Agent (11 y o carrying 10-12)
Trainer is on record as saying he is not an Aintree horse and he has sported blinkers in his last three races. Difficult to predict but seems to have a marked preference for Warwick and has never won from this high in the handicap. Wouldn't be a total surprise to see him figure but percentage call is to oppose.

No Full (7 y o carrying 10-12)
Balance of form suggests he struggles beyond three miles, needs softer ground and is in possession of a very inflated handicap mark. No Full, and given his latest form, no realistic chance.

Baily Breeze (9 y o carrying 10-11)
Wouldn't underestimate his Trainer's ability and this horse's breeding screams stamina. However he hasn't shown much in his last two races and it's difficult to understand where his mark of 141 has come from. Possible improver under the conditions of this race but likes to dominate and there are enough doubts concerning his recent form to think he can't stay there for the duration.

Bob Hall (7 y o containing 10-11)
Rumours of a breathing problem and only one race beyond 21 furlongs, in which he pulled up, makes him easy to discard.

Cloudy Lane (8 y o carrying 10-11)
Officially 20 pounds well in and deservedly market leader. Winner of his last three races, seemingly improving on each occasion, and comes here with ticks in all the right boxes. On paper, the most likely winner, but he is no longer a betting proposition at his current price. To back against him you need to convince yourself that he has significant weaknesses. The obvious one is stamina. His sire wouldn't be the strongest in that department but he wouldn't be a weakness either because he has produced stout types. There is encouragement on the Dam's side as well where the DamSire was responsible for National winner, Earth Summit. The next question he has to answer is whether he is really as well handicapped as the assessor would have us believe. He has risen 20 pounds on the back of two races which, in hindsight, he should have won anyway. The first, at Ayr, was against opposition he was entitled to beat and the last was against horses who are not the most consistent. The form was further devalued by the post report of Mr Pointment breaking a blood vessel. Neither argument is absolutely bomb proof and it's probably being churlish at most making a convincing argument against Cloudy Lane. Those on at big prices have the value though and, no matter what his credentials, his current odds are extremely cramped.

King John's Castle (9 y o carrying 10-11)
Doesn't immediately jump off the page as a typical National type and has yet to win beyond 19 furlongs. However he finished close up in the Pierse Chase in heavy ground at Leopardstown in January on only his second start over three miles. Has the right jockey to nurse him round and wouldn't be handicapped out of this if he were to stay. Presumably passed over by Tony McCoy but has come in for recent support. Drying ground is not in his favour, and his resolution has been questioned, but comes into the race having performed well on all four starts this season.

Mon Mome (8 y o carrying 10-11)
Runner up in the Welsh National in soft ground in 2006 so he has proven his stamina more than many. Looks to have been laid out for this race but the balance of his form suggests conditions may be a bit quick for him. Signs last time out at Cheltenham that he is coming to hand but would need to improve significantly on that to figure.

Cornish Sett (9 y o carrying 10-10)
Only win beyond three miles came in a four runner affair at Cheltenham but has hinted on occasions that he does possess the requisite stamina for an extreme test. Quirky sort who could be woke up by this sort of race but could equally decide he doesn't fancy it. His tendency to make the odd bad mistake is also a worry. May lack race sharpness after a 100 day break but not the type to write off as a no hoper.

Naunton Brook (9 y o carrying 10-10)
Likely to be out of trouble at the head of affairs and led this race for a good way last season. Saw the bad side of him last time out where he sulked after being denied the right to dominate. Likely to need to lead all the way to win and doesn't appeal as place material if he is headed.

Tumbling Dice (9 y o carrying 10-10)
Fails comprehensively on the distance stat having not sighted a winner in three previous attempts at around three miles. Ignore that and he would be in with some sort of chance but there is little encouragement in his breeding that the stamina is present in the first case.

Backbeat (11 y o carrying 10-9)
Has won going left handed (over hurdles) but has been kept almost solely to right handed tracks. Pulled up on both attempts over fences going left handed and that has to be a worry here. Nothing to suggest he is well treated on a mark of 139 but he is lightly raced, will like the ground and wasn't stopping over 25 furlongs at Sandown in January. Likely to have his supporters among those looking for big odds but it will be interesting to see how he reacts when he is asked to turn sharply left.

Comply and Die (9 y o carrying 10-9)
The choice of Timmy Murphy and has returned to form in no uncertain terms in his last two races. Stamina fears absolutely dispelled after wining the Eider over 33 furlongs under top weight last time out and is still well handicapped on his Novice form. He is four pounds better off with Cloudy lane on their running in the Tommy Whittle and both have improved since. This is Comply and Die's third race in the blinkers and there is a question mark whether they will continue to have an effect. A bigger question however may be how much that Eider race took out of him. If he is in the same kind of form he could have a big say in the outcome of this.

Idle Talk (9 y o carrying 10-9)
Managed to retain his partner in his last three races but jumping frailties are always likely to surface again over these fences. Didn't seem to be enjoying the experience before departing in this race last season.

Kelami (10 y o carrying 10-9)
Completion record in this race is a concern and that has done nothing for the presumption that French breds are not suited by this test. Comes into the race on the back of his best effort this season but it was the same story prior to pulling up last year.

Milan Deux Mille (6 y o carrying 10-9)
French bred six year old but did well over these fences in the Topham last season. Kept to hurdles until the weights were announced for this race but wasn't at his best back over fences last time out. Yet to prove his stamina and, given his tendency to be a bit free, he may be running on empty in the latter stages.

Nadover (7 y o carrying 10-9)
Nothing to suggest he will stay this trip and has disappointed in his last two outings. Needs softer ground and not hard to discard.

Black Apalachi (9 y o carrying 10-8)
Looks on a stiff handicap mark having been well beaten last time out from a seven pound lower mark. He would also prefer the ground a lot softer and the worry is he will not have sufficient pace to lay up. Very difficult to crab his form in Ireland this season and has only failed to complete in one of his 17 Chases to date. A staying on fourth in the Paddy power Chase on good to yielding offers some encouragement and he responded well to the first time blinkers at Gowran Park in January so the first time visor fitted for this race is interesting. There will be a lot of worse outsiders.

Philson Run (12 y o carrying 10-8)
Finished fourth in this race last season at a huge price but would prefer much softer ground, even though last year's renewal was on good ground. A year on he is unlikely to be improving at his age and it could be argued that this race is tougher this time round. Stays well but can make mistakes and overall impression is that he doesn't have the pace necessary to win.

Dun Doire (9 y o carrying 10-7)
Blinkers first time are a concern. Hasn't had a traditional preparation for this but shrewd connections have kept him away from fences since he pulled up in this race last season and he has the look of a horse being brought to a peak specifically with this race in mind. However hasn't looked to enjoy either of his previous races over these fences and he would need to return to his very best to figure. Not difficult to see him becoming detached and lose interest at some stage.

Ardaghey (9 y o carrying 10-7)
Possesses plenty of stamina in his breeding but hasn't inspired this season and may lack the class to win a race of this nature. However a stamina test is a great leveller and he will have his supporters looking for a big price.

Shortlist:

Bewley's Berry - Yet to conclusively prove he stays but was enjoying himself until falling in last season's race and jumped these fences like an old hand when winning the Becher on his reappearance. The handicapper has allocated him a five pound higher mark for this renewal but that looks of little consequence if he sees out the trip. No ground worries and the stable in better form now than they were a few months ago.

King Johns Castle - Would have to be a real stats buster to win given he has never been victorious beyond 19 furlongs. However limited evidence suggest he needs a trip now and he has maintained a good level of form in all four races this season. May want the ground a bit softer but this second season Chaser promises the best is yet to come.

Snowy Morning - Wasn't so long ago he was favourite for this race and that optimism shouldn't be discarded after one poor effort, even if it did occur last time out. If he takes to the race he is well handicapped for a big run and there is enough evidence to suggest he will stay. Has a touch of class and his drifting price has began to look appealing.

Joacci - Very speculative given he sports blinkers for the first time. However he is well handicapped, will handle the ground and looks unlikely to fail through lack of stamina. Inconsistent and could just as easily finish last but he is too talented to ignore with a small wager at big odds.

Selections:

Bewley's Berry - 2 pts win @ 15.5.
Snowy Morning - 1 pt win @ 25.
King John's Castle - 1 pt win @ 27/1.
Joacci - 0.5 pts win @ 130, 1 pt place @ 22.

holly1

I think its one race that makes it very hard to follow form,if they dont fall its anyones race.
But thanks for all that info,its easier to read than the papers.

padraig_f

Cheers Sean! I backed Snowy Morning and King John's Castle at 20s e/w based on this, and they came in 2nd and 3rd. I think Bewley's Berry came in 5th too which some bookies were paying out on.

holly1

:rolleyes:I have to apologise ,I was wrong you were very right and most of your predictions were right.I backed Snowy Morning(only a fiver each way)but I won a tenner,better than a kick in the arse.:D