The EU expands but which countries next?

Jaanus

I am a new writer here. Hello to all of you!

What are your opinions on what countries should be included next when the EU expands? Needless to say that if countries such as Norway, Switzerland or even the tiny Iceland decided to join, they'd be able to do so tomorrow. The thing is just that they don't want that and their decision is to be respected.

Personally, I'd like to see Croatia, Macedonia and perhaps Bosnia being the next ones to join the EU. I don't think Serbia is likely to join for a long time especially when the EU favoured the Kosovan independence.

Many people talk about Turkey but I just can't imagine them being members of the EU. The size of the country is too much to bear for the existing members.

Your thoughts please?

pfkf1

without a doubt the balklands will be next, Croatia, Bosnia, and the others over their but they won't be in for about 8-10 years then after them you could look at Ukraine, I think Turkey us a long way off, they have far too many domestic issues from human rights issues, as well as the fact that Greece and Cyprus will always veto their entry, for the foreseeable future.

pfkf1

Another interesting question might be who will be the 1st country to leave the EU?

Jaanus

pfkf1 wrote: »

Another interesting question might be who will be the 1st country to leave the EU?

I'd say Denmark. I don't think Britain would ever leave the EU even though they have the nastiest rhetoric against it but they still have too much to gain from it.

wes

pfkf1 wrote: »

Another interesting question might be who will be the 1st country to leave the EU?

If anyone were to leave, I reckon it would be the UK, or at least England if the UK were to split.

As for new members, well the Balkans look to be next, with as mentioned earlier with the exception of Serbia.

As for Turkey, I would like them to see them join, but they need to get there act together on reforms and resolving there occupation of Cyprus.

efb

Greenland left already.

speedboatchase

I do not want to see Turkey join. First off the country is clearly in the Asia Minor geographical region and secondly, this is an Islamic state of over 70m people. Opening the borders to that many people would create a huge culture clash and only further fuel what we are seeing in Scandinavia, North England, France and Holland - mass immigration of Muslims to Europe brings heightened tensions between two completely oppositional worldviews. Sorry but it is true.

Ignorant people talk crap about the Poles but they are harder working than the Irish, speak excellent English and generally assimilate well with our culture. The facts (which I could rattle off if everybody disargrees here) show that mass Islamic immigration to Europe is something that we should tread very delicately with

Also, the Tories will take the next election in Britain, call a referendum and get out of the EU

wes

speedboatchase wrote: »

I do not want to see Turkey join. First off the country is clearly in the Asia Minor geographical region and secondly, this is an Islamic state of over 70m people. Opening the borders to that many people would create a huge culture clash and only further fuel what we are seeing in Scandinavia, North England, France and Holland - mass immigration of Muslims to Europe brings heightened tensions between two completely oppositional worldviews. Sorry but it is true.

Turkey is a secular state. I don't know where you getting this Islamic state nonsense from.

The EU has successfully integrated several former communists countries, which would have had quite a different world view to the capitalist west. I see no reason why this couldn't work for Turkey, which is already a secular republic. It has a long way to go, but it can be done.

Also, Muslims are not some monolithic group. So trying to lump all of them into some unthinking and undifferentiated mass is ridiculous, especially as we are talking about secular Turkey.

LuckyCharms

Turkey joining is along way off even though they are desperate to get in,Personally i would like to see croatia join.

IRLConor

I agree, the Balkans are probably next although I'd like if there was a decent break of a few years before more members joining, to allow the union as it is to "settle".

I would be opposed to Turkey being a member for several reasons, some of which are:

• Their suppression of dissent.
• Their denial of the Armenian Genocide.
• Their treatment of homosexuals and conscientious objectors in their military.
• Their treatment of minorities, particularly the Kurds.
• The obvious: it's (mostly) not in Europe.
• EU land border with Iran, Iraq and Syria? No thanks.

AngryHippie

efb wrote: »

Greenland left already.

Yeah, they need the fish:D

purple'n'gold

“Also, the Tories will take the next election in Britain, call a referendum and get out of the EU”

I wouldn’t put any big bets on that one.

Jaanus

In Turkey's case the true reason behind other countries opposing its membership of the EU is the huge size of the country. At 70m it would be the second largest country in the EU and it would completely upset the carefully built balance of power. The fact that it is a Muslim-country is rather more an excuse to oppose their membership than a real reason.

gurramok

IRL Conor summed up what Turkeys brings. It ain't a secular state in practice, their electorate recently voted overwhelmly for the non-secular parties to be in power recently.

As well as Croatia, Macedonia and maybe Bosnia(see, it's not islamic!) down the line, i'd welcome Albania when their economy catches up as well despite a certain poster on another thread here thinks they only steal for a living

purple'n'gold

Why do we need or want more countries in the EU. IMO its quiet big enough already.

mick72

Albania in the EU?

I will move to US

pfkf1

My own view is that eventually the EU will end up with about another 20 countries in it, Croatia, Bosnia, Albania, Kosovo, Serbia, Macedonia, Georgia, Ukraine, would all be in the next batch with some coming in years before others, then you may see in years in to come, the countries who have always stayed outside like Switzerland Norway, Iceland, and some of Europe's tiny states like, Liechstenstein, Andorra, San Marino, Monaco.

Tricity Bendix

purplengold wrote: »

Why do we need or want more countries in the EU. IMO its quiet big enough already.

I would really enjoy a well-written, thought-out reply to this question from whoever is leading the charge for enlargement. The fact that I don't even know who is calling for enlargement alarms me. The only arguments I can think of are the elimination of the possibility of war in the Balkans and former USSR countries, expansion of consumer choice - which isn't likely to be major considering the size of the economies involved (Turkey excluded), and more holiday destinations. Seems a bit unfair considering the amount of structural funds and farming subsidies we'd have to shell out.

mick72

I would not agree with you pfkf1.

I think the EU will eventually disintegrate. The circumstances in all these countries are very different, not so much in terms of economy since it could be improved, but in cultural terms. I cannot understand how you can expect Kosovo to join EU when Serbia vowed never to recognise it, and Russia and China said that they will block Kosovo's application to become a member of the UN. If all these countries enter the EU, I am sure the EU will cease to exist or recreate its organisation; something like EU1 and EU2.

If you can make say 2 or 3 grand per month in Ireland, and only 200 or 300 hundred in Albania, I cannot see how that can work on an equal foundations. I woud assume that half Albania would move to Ireland

gurramok

mick72 wrote: »

If you can make say 2 or 3 grand per month in Ireland, and only 200 or 300 hundred in Albania, I cannot see how that can work on an equal foundations. I woud assume that half Albania would move to Ireland

Have you missed something?

That(not about albania but the economic context) has happened already with poor economies like Poland, Czech, Slovakia, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Hungary joining with mass migration from all these countries to richer countries that let them in.

Nice didn't make these countries economies catch up before they were let in to the club, they were let in no matter how low the wage levels were at.

murphaph

efb wrote: »

Greenland left already.

But they weren't first ........

5 July 1962; Algeria gains independence from France and leaves the EEC.

1985; Granted home rule by Denmark six years earlier, Greenland decides to leave the EC following a referendum.

Personally I don't want the EU to expand any more unless it's to allow Switzerland or Norway to join. The EU risks over reaching itself if it doesn't consolidate what it has and starts listening to the people.

gaf1983

mick72 wrote: »

If you can make say 2 or 3 grand per month in Ireland, and only 200 or 300 hundred in Albania, I cannot see how that can work on an equal foundations. I woud assume that half Albania would move to Ireland

I would presume Ireland would put up temporary barriers to the free movement of workers in Albania's case, as it has done for Romania and Bulgaria.

I reckon Croatia would probably be next in line. Bosnia is a long way off.

mick72

Quaramok,

that's exactly what I was reffering to. Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia, Lithuania etc all joined; however they have been prevented from going freely and working in most 'old' EU states. Economies in these countries indeed have developed, but it will probably take another 100 years before they catch up. Czech Republic was many timed better off than Albania, and culturally, they are much more 'compatible' with the EU than Albania for instance.

Croatia is very close to the EU; however, they have an outstanding isssue with Slovenia over Protected Fishery Zone, and they feel strongly about it. They will have to give in if they want to carry on negotiations with the EU.

Bosnia-Herzegovina would be dead without international support in terms of even territorial integrity. They still do not have a proper constitution nor state police; over the past few weeks Republic of Srpska reiterated its intention to call a referendum on independence and most probably union with Serbia. Bosnia is very unstable as a state.

jmayo

pfkf1 wrote: »

My own view is that eventually the EU will end up with about another 20 countries in it, Croatia, Bosnia, Albania, Kosovo, Serbia, Macedonia, Georgia, Ukraine, would all be in the next batch with some coming in years before others, then you may see in years in to come, the countries who have always stayed outside like Switzerland Norway, Iceland, and some of Europe's tiny states like, Liechstenstein, Andorra, San Marino, Monaco.

Why the hell would the likes of Norway, Iceland or particularly Switzerland want to join the EU?
They would have to become net contributors from the start and in case of Norway or Iceland would lose fishing grounds etc.
Most of the small states mentioned above basically make their economies tick by being hax havens and the EU will not possibly grant those exemptions to them as members, so why jeopardise their current economise to join a beaucratic disaster where they are dictated to by larger states.

Membership of the EU is only attractive to countries that are poor and want to get development aid, attract external investment and industry.

As mentioned the bigger question may be who will opt out.
Watch Mandelson sell out European farmers/agriculture in trade talks and see how many people in rural Europe will be pro EU.

As for Turkey joining there are two chances of that being accepted by the populations of some European countries and slim has left town long ago.

Maybe when they accept responsibility for the massacre of Armenians then they should be shown some respect, otherwise they can bog off.

And here is one for the pro expansionists: if Turkey is mooted to join, then why not Israel?
After all they are in Eurovision, Uefa competitions etc so they are accepted as a part of Europe.
And you could say they have similar histories on human rights.

wes

jmayo wrote: »

And here is one for the pro expansionists: if Turkey is mooted to join, then why not Israel?
After all they are in Eurovision, Uefa competitions etc so they are accepted as a part of Europe.
And you could say they have similar histories on human rights.

Turkey is already a stretch for the European union, at least some of it is apart of Europe. A lot of it problems are actually surmountable.

Israel is very much in the Middle East. The colonial conflict with the Palestinians, and the simple fact that it is a apartheid state rule it out. Its problems aren't something that can easily be fixed, simply put.

Also any future Palestinians state would probably have to join considering how closely linked (physically, economically etc) such a future state would be with Israel and thats assuming such a state is ever created the way things are going.

PHB

Not a chance the Tories would pull out of the EU. They talk a big game, but they know its too important. They'd get raped, because the EU would rape them economically. They are currently enjoying the benefits of a common market with a weak currency, and they know it.

Anyway, it's likely that anyone between the current boarders will join whenever they meet our criteria and want to. Norway probably won't ever join, despite being more involved in many ways than the Briitsh. Switzerland are unlikely to ever join. I think the Balkans will eventually join, finally solving the Eastern question.

Turkey will join eventually. France has tried to stop enlargement a couple of times, and it always fails, Turkey will eventually get in once it does its part, which it seems willing to do.
Oh, and the whole idea if we let Turkey in, why not Israel? Well first off, Turkey's been part of 'Europe' since before Ireland was. Indeed, Turkey was considered one of the great 5 major European powers until before WW1.

p.s. Nobody cares about rural Europe to be honest. Farming isn't important enough, especially for Norway, Switzerland and Iceland.

rowlandbrowner

The EU should continue to expand.
The dissembling of separate entity’s in a natural progression in human civilianisation, the only thing opposing it is peoples flawed ideas that national identity is something to want to hold on to.

andala

I don't think EU will expand within the next decade. It already has a lot of work with the new member states catching up with the older ones.

If I were to guess, Croatia would be my choice. I'm not sure about Serbia, Bosnia and Montenegro. I'd say it'd be either they all join in or none of them does.

Kosovo and Albania stand no chance basing on today's EU policy. No way Spain or Slovakia will vote in favour of them.

Turkey still has a lot to do about their nationalism and human rights issues and I don't think this will change soon.

estebancambias

rowlandbrowner wrote: »

The EU should continue to expand.
The dissembling of separate entity’s in a natural progression in human civilianisation, the only thing opposing it is peoples flawed ideas that national identity is something to want to hold on to.

I honestly say this without meaning to sound crude, but I hate people who have that mindset.

I would also like the EU to keep expanding but national indentity is extremely important.

Honestly I think one day we will all become like robots, emotionless.