South Africa - the future

Oilrig

http://www.news24.com/News24/South_Africa/Politics/0,,2-7-12_2275834,00.html

As a card carrying member of the Dunnes episode, I'm now dissapointed somewhat. (to say the least...)

Anyone else feel that this is another basket country in the making?

bartholomewbinn

I predict that within 10 years South Africa will be like Zimbabwe is now. Unfortunately the ANC are just not capable of running a modern economy. It didn’t take them long to ruin the country after apartheid did it?

silverharp

on the positive side SA has alot of natural resources which should support the economy. However given the artificial boarders of many African states maybe has sealed their fate, I don't know how much this applies to SA

bartholomewbinn

silverharp wrote: »

on the positive side SA has alot of natural resources which should support the economy. However given the artificial boarders of many African states maybe has sealed their fate, I don't know how much this applies to SA

Natural resources are not much use if you don’t have the brains to exploit them, or worse still squander them. South Africa since the end of apartheid is unfortunately a disaster waiting to happen.

Stimpyone

I have a friend in SA who is of the opinion that when Mandela shuffles off it will be the final nail in the coffin, unfortunately.

bartholomewbinn

I chat regularly with a lady from South Africa and she tells me that a lot of the younger whites are leaving; if that becomes an exodus the country will sink a lot faster.

Stimpyone

bartholomewbinn wrote: »

I chat regularly with a lady from South Africa and she tells me that a lot of the younger whites are leaving; if that becomes an exodus the country will sink a lot faster.

My friend had left and actually was eligible for Irish citizenship. He had to go back due to family reasons otherwise he'd still be here.

sovtek

bartholomewbinn wrote: »

I predict that within 10 years South Africa will be like Zimbabwe is now. Unfortunately the ANC are just not capable of running a modern economy. It didn’t take them long to ruin the country after apartheid did it?

It's strange that everyone blames the ANC for ****ing it up when they've done things like privatize state assets and allowing corporations that have gotten rich off the subsidies of the state as well as the labour of the people to take their profits out of the country. "We" would never do anything so crazy.

sovtek

bartholomewbinn wrote: »

Natural resources are not much use if you don’t have the brains to exploit them, or worse still squander them. South Africa since the end of apartheid is unfortunately a disaster waiting to happen.

Yes those africans just don't have the brain capacity to run themselves do they? Meanwhile De Beers is sitting pretty in New York and London.

Moriarty

sovtek wrote: »

It's strange that everyone blames the ANC for ****ing it up when they've done things like privatize state assets and allowing corporations that have gotten rich off the subsidies of the state as well as the labour of the people to take their profits out of the country. "We" would never do anything so crazy.

Do you really think the Irish and South African economies and circumstances are similar enough to make specious comments such as those sovtek? Or would this be your perennial "capitalism=bad" contribution to the thread?

gaf1983

Do you think it is time that South Africa repealed the Broad Based Black Economic Empowerment legislation?

sovtek

Moriarty wrote: »

Or would this be your perennial "capitalism=bad" contribution to the thread?

Yup

sovtek

gaf1983 wrote: »

Do you think it is time that South Africa repealed the Broad Based Black Economic Empowerment legislation?

I don't, but I think it could be instituted better to serve most of the population instead of substituting a white elite for a black elite.

El Stuntman

I travel to South Africa about 5/6 times a year (for business reasons) and have done so for the last seven years.

some observations, make of them what you will!

1. The economy is generally strong, fuelled by the global commodities boom. There is a swelling black middle class, aided and abetted by the BEE (Black Economic Empowerment) policies of the government. Real wealth is being created.
They have experienced a property bubble much like ours, however given that, unlike us, they have control of their own monetary policy, they are being much more proactive in bursting this (interest rates are in double figues).
Wealth is still hugely unevenly spread. You can drive from the slums of Alexandria to the Beverly Hills-esque mansions of Sandton in 10 minutes. The comparison is not a pretty one. You can see why a populist politican such as Zuma would make headway easily amongst the townships.

2. Crime rates remain stubbornly high (way beyond our comprehension on this safe little island). There is a scarily high murder rate - up to 50 a day in Johannesburg. People are living in fear - rich and poor alike in their gated, heavily armed communities. There is a huge availability of all sorts of weaponry. The police are both corrupt and incompetent - detection rates are pathetic. The police forces are also heavily politicised, to the extent that rival politicans within the ANC are using them against each other (just look at the Jackie Selebi saga recently).
To me, this is the main reason why I would never move my family to SA (I've been offered this chance many times)

3. The white population has defied all predictions of its demise. Sure, large amounts of white South Africans have emigrated to the UK, Australia, Canada and even here. Many have also returned to SA. They still control a vast amount of the country's wealth and economic life.
The whites are badly needed, even the unrepentant racists (of which there are many) as they have the necessary skills to keep the country moving forward, particularly economically. Just look at what has happened to Eskom as the layer of white technocrats was shed in favour of ANC patronage - result = total chaos aka load shedding

4. The good stuff: South Africa is one of the most exciting places to visit on the entire planet. It's blessed with great weather, beautiful scenery, incredible heritage from all tribal and ethnic backgrounds, superb food and drink. It's cheap for us Euro-weenies.

5. The future. Mbeki's presidency has been a triumph of stability (particularly economic) on one hand. On the other, he has allowed serious crises to fester which, if not dealt with quickly, have the potential to tip SA into 'basket case' territory.
AIDS: the government has totally and abjectly failed to deal with the AIDS crisis facing SA.
Corruption: SA has nothing on most sub-Saharan states when it comes to corruption however it is growing and there are worrying signs that it is becoming endemic. The Shabir Shaikh/Zuma trial has the potential to be a watershed in this regard.
Education: the state education system is a disgrace in many areas with teachers not bothering to turn up and no textbooks being issued to students. the long-term implications are obvious.
Zimbabwe; SA continues to prop up the Mugabe regime. This is a disgrace.

6. Race relations: I'm always amazed by this when I go to SA. I have never seen an inter-racial couple! Apartheid may be long gone, thank God, but racial segregation still continues along tribal/ethnic lines.

bartholomewbinn

I know a South African girl (white) who immigrated here last year. Her grandfather was Irish so she can become an Irish citizen by simply having her birth registered in the foreign births register. She couldn’t wait to get out of the place, according to her the place is very dangerous and corruption is fast reaching the levels endemic in the rest of sub Saharan Africa.

sovtek

El Stuntman wrote: »

I travel to South Africa about 5/6 times a year (for business reasons) and have done so for the last seven years.

some observations, make of them what you will!

1. The economy is generally strong, fuelled by the global commodities boom. There is a swelling black middle class, aided and abetted by the BEE (Black Economic Empowerment) policies of the government. Real wealth is being created.

I'm not sure the wealth has been created as it's been moved from one group to another and the people at the bottom have not benefited.

They have experienced a property bubble much like ours, however given that, unlike us, they have control of their own monetary policy, they are being much more proactive in bursting this (interest rates are in double figues).

But they have still allowed much speculation, especially from foreignors which has made many natives have to move out of the city centre and made them foreignors in their own land.
Are you saying the Bertie et al could not have also protected Ireland from rampant speculation and cheap money because of the EU?

Wealth is still hugely unevenly spread. You can drive from the slums of Alexandria to the Beverly Hills-esque mansions of Sandton in 10 minutes. The comparison is not a pretty one. You can see why a populist politican such as Zuma would make headway easily amongst the townships.

I agree and its the root of most problems in SA.

2. Crime rates remain stubbornly high (way beyond our comprehension on this safe little island). There is a scarily high murder rate - up to 50 a day in Johannesburg. People are living in fear - rich and poor alike in their gated, heavily armed communities. There is a huge availability of all sorts of weaponry. The police are both corrupt and incompetent - detection rates are pathetic. The police forces are also heavily politicised, to the extent that rival politicans within the ANC are using them against each other (just look at the Jackie Selebi saga recently).
To me, this is the main reason why I would never move my family to SA (I've been offered this chance many times)

I believe this is a result of desperate poverty in SA. Once this is seriously address then crime and corruption will subside.
I would never want to live there again myself. I used be constantly stressed whenever my partner used to go home to visit on her own.
When I was visiting there and living there I often could not sleep at night because you worried about any strange noise you heard.

3. The white population has defied all predictions of its demise. Sure, large amounts of white South Africans have emigrated to the UK, Australia, Canada and even here. Many have also returned to SA. They still control a vast amount of the country's wealth and economic life.
The whites are badly needed, even the unrepentant racists (of which there are many) as they have the necessary skills to keep the country moving forward, particularly economically. Just look at what has happened to Eskom as the layer of white technocrats was shed in favour of ANC patronage - result = total chaos aka load shedding

True they need every citizen to do their part for the country. To me it's obvious that whites are going to have to give up the privilege and the wealth they were accustomed to under Apartheid if society as a whole is going to progress. That alone will send a few packing...so be it.
I wonder how much of what is going on with Eskom has to do with black empowerment and how much privatization caused the current situation seeing as many other developing countries that have followed the same model are in a similar situation.

4. The good stuff: South Africa is one of the most exciting places to visit on the entire planet. It's blessed with great weather, beautiful scenery, incredible heritage from all tribal and ethnic backgrounds, superb food and drink. It's cheap for us Euro-weenies.

I agree. Cape Town is one of the most beautiful cities I've ever seen. The Transkai is full of untouched beaches and landscape. Gemsbok (has a indigenous name now) nature reserve blows Kruger away and is probably the best in the Kalahari (ok I've never been Botswana).
That's all well and good for us tourists though.

5. The future. Mbeki's presidency has been a triumph of stability (particularly economic) on one hand. On the other, he has allowed serious crises to fester which, if not dealt with quickly, have the potential to tip SA into 'basket case' territory.

In terms of economy things might be stable. However ever increasing poverty and the divide between the top and bottom grows steadily. Luckily for Mbeki he might not have to deal with the extreme outcome of that scenario. Something that will probably leave it like the other "banana republics" of Africa

AIDS: the government has totally and abjectly failed to deal with the AIDS crisis facing SA.

I agree as well. Mbeki's abdication of responsibility and statement that HIV did not cause AIDS was criminal.
However "our" drug companies and governments have a lot to answer for.
There was pressure from both to keep cheap SA developed AIDS drugs off the market as well as use of trade agreements to keep AIDS drugs criminally expensive.

Corruption: SA has nothing on most sub-Saharan states when it comes to corruption however it is growing and there are worrying signs that it is becoming endemic. The Shabir Shaikh/Zuma trial has the potential to be a watershed in this regard.

I think Zuma's populist appeal will keep him around for a while to come. Unfortunately I think he's just an opportunist and probably a criminal.

Zimbabwe; SA continues to prop up the Mugabe regime. This is a disgrace.

It is a disgrace but you have to understand that Mugabe is an old ally that they will not easily sideline. The utter hypocrisy in Blair's breathless(and other English speaking leaders of the world) denunciations of Mugabe whilst the Saudi Royal family get a parade through London is not lost on someone like Mbeki or any other African leader who had to deal with the excesses of the SADF/CIA "back in tha day".

6. Race relations: I'm always amazed by this when I go to SA. I have never seen an inter-racial couple! Apartheid may be long gone, thank God, but racial segregation still continues along tribal/ethnic lines.

I'd say it largely exists amongst class lines. I have seen integration improve since I first went there in '98 though.

Jaanus

The ANC has already chosen a successor to Mbeki. Can't remember his name though.

However, I'm sure that Sa will do their utmost to present an image of themselves being a modern nation as they hold the world cup in two years time. After the competition is over, things might deteriorate very dramatically.

speedboatchase

Why in the world was SA chosen to host the World Cup? Its a disaster in the making, and the money going in to building huge stadiums that will never reach capacity once the tournament is over is staggering

EamonnKeane

Jaanus wrote: »

The ANC has already chosen a successor to Mbeki. Can't remember his name though.

Zuma. Never went to school, recently up for rape, says he had sex with a HIV+ woman but took a shower after to avoid getting HIV. Good times ahead!

bartholomewbinn

EamonnKeane wrote: »

Zuma. Never went to school, recently up for rape, says he had sex with a HIV+ woman but took a shower after to avoid getting HIV. Good times ahead!

Wow! He seems like quiet an intelligent and caring individual. South Africans must be waiting with bated breath to see this intellectual colossus stride the international stage.

Jaanus

speedboatchase wrote: »

Why in the world was SA chosen to host the World Cup? Its a disaster in the making, and the money going in to building huge stadiums that will never reach capacity once the tournament is over is staggering

It had something to do with Blatter being re-elected chairman of the FIFA and he needed the votes of the African member-states to succeed. So, he wanted the 2006 world cup to be staged in Africa but when tat was decided in 2000 Germany narrowly beat SA. When the host of the 2010 tournament was decided it was considered only fair to give it to SA.

bartholomewbinn

It seems rather odd to me that Irish people are going to South Africa to build houses for poor people who are presently living in shacks and their own government is spending billions building football stadiums.
“Between now and 2010, South Africa will spend in the region of R5-billion on building and renovating 10 World Cup stadiums.”

jawlie

Jacob Zuma, if he becomes the next president of SA, will be another in a long line of African leaders who is corrupt and greedy and is probably quite racist and a bully. ( Leaders as "bullies" in africa mean murder & torture of ones oppponants or of anyone who speaks out against them).

Already the country is showing signs of appalling mis-management. For example, Eskom, the equivalent of our ESB, has neglected to undertake routine maintenance on its power stations and this has resulted in daily power cuts of around 2 hours per day in many areas across the country. De Beers have had to shut their mines and the effect on business, and investment, is appalling and bodes ill for the future. They say it is going to take 5 years to put this right.

The same seems to be true of the water providers, and the integrity of the countries clean water is increasingly doubtful as, again due to a lack of maintenance, as the integrity of the pipes of the water and sewer systems is undermined.

The problems of Africa have almost invariably been due to corrupt and greedy leaders and it seems South Africa will, next year, start to go down that path if Jacob Zuma is elected as president.

Zim has gone , in 10 years, from one of the richest countries in Africa to a country with over 80% unemployment, in excess of 100 000% inflation, where most people are living on under $1 per day, and where basic foodstuffs and medicines are impossible to find. Life expectancy has dropped sharply and child mortality has more than doubled in recent years.

Lets hope SA deosn't go the same direction.

jmayo

Having worked with a few South Africans, both black and white, the thinking from a lot of them is that it will degenerate into another Zimbabwe.
A lot of people see the influence of Madela being a steadying one and there are worries when he goes that the excesses will really pile on.

It doesn't matter how rich SA is, all you have to do is look at how Zimbabwe has been run into the ground just so that one man/one party can stay in power.

Also from hearing stories of people that have been there, the happie clappie program that Nial Mellon made showing the good work he is doing in SA, how happy and friendly the people are, neglected to show the armed gaurds and the fact that the workers are escorted into and out of the townships for their own safety.

Spaceman Spiff

bartholomewbinn wrote: »

I chat regularly with a lady from South Africa and she tells me that a lot of the younger whites are leaving; if that becomes an exodus the country will sink a lot faster.

Somebody told me that 5-10,000 South Africans have been moving to Western Canada each year, and that the number would be higher except the biggest problem is selling their houses back home to afford to make the jump.

In related news, the future of Canada's rugby team is looking bright

jmayo

Spaceman Spiff wrote: »

Somebody told me that 5-10,000 South Africans have been moving to Western Canada each year, and that the number would be higher except the biggest problem is selling their houses back home to afford to make the jump.

In related news, the future of Canada's rugby team is looking bright

I won't make any jokes about conservative Albertans and conservative South Africans
Hey why doesn't Canada get a few of their ice hockey players to take up rugby during summer ?

Spaceman Spiff

jmayo wrote: »

I won't make any jokes about conservative Albertans and conservative South Africans

Well that would explain our recent election results.

Hey why doesn't Canada get a few of their ice hockey players to take up rugby during summer ?

Lacrosse and more hockey would be the summer sports of choice for our top youth hockey players. Most parents are also scared that their kids would get hurt. In various places there are movements to promote rugby more because of how inclusive it is for all kids and how relatively cheap it is to play.

I actually played Bantam and Midget hockey with a guy who was born in Zimbabwe (as Canadian as I was at the time, but I guess his aunt had to move to South Africa when things in Zimbabwe went bad for the whites). Played against him in high school rugby one year, he was useless

therewillbe

Another Zimbabwe in the making .Fools really , everything there minerals,land,scenary etc. but its screweing itself !

jmayo

Spaceman Spiff wrote: »

Well that would explain our recent election results.



Lacrosse and more hockey would be the summer sports of choice for our top youth hockey players. Most parents are also scared that their kids would get hurt. In various places there are movements to promote rugby more because of how inclusive it is for all kids and how relatively cheap it is to play.

I actually played Bantam and Midget hockey with a guy who was born in Zimbabwe (as Canadian as I was at the time, but I guess his aunt had to move to South Africa when things in Zimbabwe went bad for the whites). Played against him in high school rugby one year, he was useless

I knew a South African guy that had AFAIK represented SA at underage cricket and hockey, also had played lots of rugby.
He went to a hurling club training session one night but gave up after 10 minutes.
He could stand the fitness, but he didn't have the skills and he reckoned they were all physcos trying to behead him
Like many white South Africans he had connections with people that had fled Zimbabwe or as they used to say Rhodesia.

jawlie

jmayo wrote: »

I knew a South African guy that had AFAIK represented SA at underage cricket and hockey, also had played lots of rugby.
He went to a hurling club training session one night but gave up after 10 minutes.
He could stand the fitness, but he didn't have the skills and he reckoned they were all physcos trying to behead him
Like many white South Africans he had connections with people that had fled Zimbabwe or as they used to say Rhodesia.

I've read this and reread it, and can't see what it has to do with the future of SA. Have I missed something or misunderstood?

jmayo

jawlie wrote: »

I've read this and reread it, and can't see what it has to do with the future of SA. Have I missed something or misunderstood?

Will admit went off on tangent discussing ex-pat SAs (and their sporting abilities or lack thereof) who happen to have moved to other developed countries in the western world e.g Canada, UK, Ireland.
Maybe the fact that there are so many young white educated SAs moving abroad might point to fact they have no faith in the future of their country.
A lot of them see it as another Zimbabwe in the making.
Yes we are using anecdotal evidence but there ain't smoke without fire.

The issues a lot of whites have are: crime, corruption, nepotism (not just in state jobs but look at rugby and it's ficasco), the fact that nothing is being done about Mugabe, and the fact that some of the political leaders are eejits.

El Stuntman

jmayo wrote: »

Will admit went off on tangent discussing ex-pat SAs (and their sporting abilities or lack thereof) who happen to have moved to other developed countries in the western world e.g Canada, UK, Ireland.
Maybe the fact that there are so many young white educated SAs moving abroad might point to fact they have no faith in the future of their country.
A lot of them see it as another Zimbabwe in the making.
Yes we are using anecdotal evidence but there ain't smoke without fire.

The issues a lot of whites have are: crime, corruption, nepotism (not just in state jobs but look at rugby and it's ficasco), the fact that nothing is being done about Mugabe, and the fact that some of the political leaders are eejits.

anectodally, I can confirm that many of the highly-paid, highly-skilled white (and also some coloured and black) employees in my company are applying for transfers to our operations here, in the UK and in Australia. Some have also left the company and moved abroad.

these are people who stuck around through the Mandela and Mbeki eras, they are not mercenaries or racists. They have simply lost faith in the direction that their politicans are taking the country. It's very sad to see

Sand

The middle class "proffessionals", whatever their race, will tend to move towards the regimes that are tolerably administered, and run on sound economic principles. If South Africa is being run into the ground - which by all appearances it appears to be - its no mystery in this era of global travel and migration that anyone with some braincells or drive is bailing out and heading for a properly run liberal [a.k.a capitalist] democracy.

We in Ireland had a similar situation not so long ago so its not an issue any more odd than simply the ANC and Zuma being basically greedy, corrupt and incompetent political group who have become complacent in their power - not like anyone wed know at all? The problem will be fixed when SA descends to the levels of economic collapse where idealogy is ignored and basic economic common sense is applied, because the alternative is economic suicide. Ireland came out of its economic tailspin once socialism had been discredited, its likely SA will come out of its own decline eventually to.

The concern of course is the education system - if the education system isnt up to the task of providing an educated, competent middle class work force then SA is in for a hell of a time. Zimbabwes leadership may start trying to fix the country at any point, but with the damage done so far that will be far more difficult than was the case in Ireland where the education system remained basically sound despite the economy.

Communists fix the problem of exodus by locking everyone into the rollercoaster for the ride, so Zuma may get around to that eventually.

El Stuntman

Sand wrote: »

The concern of course is the education system - if the education system isnt up to the task of providing an educated, competent middle class work force then SA is in for a hell of a time.

it's not up to the task

jawlie

Sand wrote: »

The middle class "proffessionals", whatever their race, will tend to move towards the regimes that are tolerably administered, and run on sound economic principles. If South Africa is being run into the ground - which by all appearances it appears to be - its no mystery in this era of global travel and migration that anyone with some braincells or drive is bailing out and heading for a properly run liberal [a.k.a capitalist] democracy.

Of course thats true, but it is also true that the countries to which they want to go have to accept their qualifications as valid if they want to work there.

In SA, for example, the training for doctors used to be recognised abroad. This is no longer the case as the SA authorities have changed the way doctors are taught and the course is shorter and no longer recognised as acceptable to practice in most countries abroad.

A cynical attempt by the SA authorities to prevent their doctors from going abroad and prevent a brain drain?

http://www.mg.co.za/articlePage.aspx?articleid=335147&area=/insight/insight__economy__business/