E/W dutching question

punchestown

Folks,

Hoping somebody with the maths skills could help with this.

Say I am backing 2 horses e/w 1/4 the odds in a 6 runner event. The horses odds are 7/1 and 16/1. For the purpose of the question, just say one of them is gurranteed to finish placed (2nd behind a long odds on winner) Can I back both each way and gurrantee not losing any money and if not what is the lowest loss I could escape with backing both each way? (4 bets 2 win 2 place)

Thanks

cson

6 runner event is 1/4 price first 2 for an each way bet.

€1 e/w @ 7/1 (1/4 of 7 * 1) = €2.75

€1 e/w @ 16/1 (1/4 of 16 * 1) = €5

So to turn a profit of €1 you need the 16/1 horse to be placed. If you back both and the 7/1 is placed then you only lose €1.25. Of course the highest possible lose is your €4 and the highest possible win is if the 16/1 is first and the 7/1 second which would net you a tasty €23.75

Mellor

Fours bets totalling $4

if the 16/1 horse wins you return €22
If the 7/1 places you return 10.75
if the 16/1 horse places you return €5
If the 7/1 places you return 2.75

So the only time you make a loss is if the 7/1 horse places only, but of course this is assumign that one always places, which is not true obviously
So

punchestown

Thanks lads, can I vary the stake to increase the amount staked on the shorter of the 2 to cover the extra gain if the larger priced is place?

cson

You've only got €1 leeway to be honest. If the 16/1 places you get €5 back, you'll have bet €4 (The two €1 e/w's) so thats a profit of €1. If you wanted I spose you could go €1.50 e/w on the 7/1 which would return €4.13 if placed, making a loss of 77c if none of the horses place. On the flip side, you'll only win 77c if the 16/1 is placed.

Hope you understand that, cos I had to read it a few times before I did

Pj!

Do people not know what dutching is?


No time to go over these figures again but I think they are correct.

If you have €10 e/w on the 16/1, you'd need €18.18 e/w on the 7/1 to even it out.

But although that would level the each way returns, you'd lose around €6.37 if just one placed.

You'd need a winner to show profit.

So for a stake of €56.36 your each way return for one horse would be €50.


(as I said, worth double checking, don't have the time as it seems i'm supposed to be 'working' while in work :rolleyes: )

Mellor

The two horses to place only is not a dutch book, they make up a 112% book. so you cant cover each by one placing alone, adjust the odds will just split loss between them and also make the profits more even too

cson

Forky wrote: »

Do people not know what dutching is?


No time to go over these figures again but I think they are correct.

If you have €10 e/w on the 16/1, you'd need €18.18 e/w on the 7/1 to even it out.

But although that would level the each way returns, you'd lose around €6.37 if just one placed.

You'd need a winner to show profit.

So for a stake of €56.36 your each way return for one horse would be €50.


(as I said, worth double checking, don't have the time as it seems i'm supposed to be 'working' while in work :rolleyes: )

Dutching: In gambling, Dutching is sharing the risk of losing across a number or runners by backing more than one selection in a race or event. The process calculates the correct stake to place on each selection so that the return is the same if any of them wins.

I think that covers it. In any case, there is a high risk that Punchestown will lose part or all of his stakes. Then again it's a risk he might be more than happy to take.

You often see people if there are two favourites in a race e.g. two 4/1 fav's, back both of them. Of course this strategy fooks up when neither of them win.

Mellor

Forky wrote: »

Do people not know what dutching is?

So for a stake of €56.36 your each way return for one horse would be €50.

(as I said, worth double checking, don't have the time as it seems i'm supposed to be 'working' while in work :rolleyes: )

You divided 100 by both 5 and 2.75 to get requires stake. (in case anyone readign doen't know.
This needs to be below 50 to be a full dutch book, as its 56, it make up a 112% book, quite an overround

punchestown

cson wrote: »

Dutching:

I think that covers it. In any case, there is a high risk that Punchestown will lose part or all of his stakes. Then again it's a risk he might be more than happy to take.

What if the fav is 10's on? 2nd fav 7/1 as per above example and 16/1 the third. the five or six runner field is made up by two rags who are quoted at 100's but true odds on Betfair win market would be 1000! Would my strategy be high risk then?

badbrian

punchestown wrote: »

What if the fav is 10's on? 2nd fav 7/1 as per above example and 16/1 the third. the five or six runner field is made up by two rags who are quoted at 100's but true odds on Betfair win market would be 1000! Would my strategy be high risk then?

Doesn't really matter what price the fav is if the 2 horses you are betting on are still 7/1 and 16/1.

In summary, you are guaranteed to lose 11% of your outlay if the fav wins, one of your 2 horses comes second and you have bet proportionately more on the 7/1 horse.

Pj!

punchestown wrote: »

What if the fav is 10's on? 2nd fav 7/1 as per above example and 16/1 the third. the five or six runner field is made up by two rags who are quoted at 100's but true odds on Betfair win market would be 1000! Would my strategy be high risk then?

I'm afraid the odds are always going to be against you in a 100%+ book.

Mellor

If you thought the horses were never going to take first,
than doign it as a place bet would make it sub 100% book,
that of course still assumes that onr horse is going to place, (which was simply assume for calculation and isnt actually true)