Sterling V Euro - six month outlook

Sleepy

Hi all, I think I have the right forum here but if not please feel free to move to the apt forum.

I've been asked to relocate to the UK for the next six months by my employers and while they're getting the remuneration package offer ready I'm doing a little thinking as to whether to ask for my salary to be paid in Euro or Sterling.

Anyone have any predictions for the exchange rate difference over the next six months?

portomar

my outlook is bullish euro, bearish sterling.sterling has broken a long held range it had against euro, and the boe is FAR more likely to follow the interest rate policy of the us fed.heard an currency trader on bloomberg say he could see parity of euro sterling in not 2 distant future.while that may seem far fetched, remember the euro at one point only bought 70 us cent.all that said if u could accurately predict currency fluctuations u wudnt need a job 2 relocate to d uk with.

contact23

dont mean to be picky but the lowest i remember euro dollar was a lofty 86 cent

Reyman

The UK economy is not in great shape (like ourselves). This means more UK interest rate cuts which means Sterling falls.

I'm betting on £0.83 to €1.00 by the end of the year

contact23

a bit optimistic for the euro to get to there, but heh, great for ikea shopping...doh, wont have any house to put the stuff in ...

gerbilgranny

I was just Googling 'sterling to euro' there, and this thread popped up.

Someone wasn't far off the mark, way back at the start of this year.:)

snubbleste

Good prediction there..
Sterling was at €1 = £0.74 when this thread started.

redarmyblues

30-6-9 i bet

85 to 105 1/1
105+ 6/1
85- 7/4

Reyman

Thanks - I'd say it was me. I was a good few shillings out still.

darsar

I started my new job in the north in Jan when it was 67p to the euro. 11 months later its nearer 96p then 95. If only I saw this coming. I am now losing between 880-900 euro per month wages due to the exchange rate ( all my bills are euro! Mortgage, loans etc...)

Happy Christmas

Dubh Geannain

I was based in Ireland and paid in Sterling for a couple of months during the year before I got offered a more interesting and secure job.

Bloody glad now.

My tuppence worth is that sterling will comeback on the euro by about halfway through the new year and will end up back below 80p - €1

Cantoris

Sterling is only likely to get weaker as the Bank of England continues to drops interest rates faster than the ECB. It is unlikely that the UK will recover quicker than Europe so I just don't see how it will move anywhere near its old level for quite some time. You must remember that when it was 67p to the euro, UK interest rates were 5% compared to 2.5% in ECB land. UK rates are heading to 1% now and ECB to 1.5% so a massive swing that needs to be corrected even to get it to 80p to the euro.

rugbyman

Following on Cantoris ' post, can anyone enlighten me on why money follows high interest rates across currency borders ?

Since the year 2000 I have been more than aware of the Sterling currency rate as my income is dependant on Sterling. The link between the increase in the value of Sterling and British interest rates was always commented on. The movement of international funds, seeking high interest rates always puzzled me ,as for each movement it usually meant that investor buying his sterling at a high rate.

I recently read that virtually all the capital that moved to Sterling in the last four years has now left .

Surely, given the continual decline in the value of Sterling over these years meant a massive drop in the amount of currency to which it was moved. This I would imagine would outweigh a few years extra interest

regards,Rugbyman

mickdw

Reyman wrote: »

Thanks - I'd say it was me. I was a good few shillings out still.

Well could you please offer us your prediction for sterling for the next 6 months. Im thinking of changing some savings into sterling with a view to buying a car in the uk at some stage over the next year

Cantoris

Doesn't it all depend on whether you think the euro land or UK will have the longer and deeper recession. Whichever one does they will drop interest rates most over the coming six months and the outlook will be for those low rates to be maintained for some time. I think the UK is in a much worse position than Europe so it's interest rates are likely to fall quickly and stay there for a long time. In that event, sterling will continue to weaken and no reason for anyone to want to buy sterling.

Reyman

mickdw wrote: »

Well could you please offer us your prediction for sterling for the next 6 months. Im thinking of changing some savings into sterling with a view to buying a car in the uk at some stage over the next year

I'm betting on a rate of 90p = €1.00 in the next few months (by March 09)

Reason: A rapid cut in the Euro interest rates to bail out the PIGS (Portugal,Italy,Greece,Spain) which are in a bad way.

Note: The smart guys in the city (London) are saying that Pigs is spelt with two i's