Economics and Irish Politics

davej

Will Ireland suffer pneumonia when other parts of the world start to sneeze?
Do you think it is possible the country might be about to suffer severe ecomomic depression (i.e. resulting in high unemployment and net emigration)?

Following on from this, here are some conjectures:

Many know the economy is about to fail, this is the real reason why Bertie is coming under pressure from the Irish power elite to resign. These 'scandalous' things have been known about Bertie for years. They are being brought to light and taken seriously now because many powerful people want him removed - as punishment for leading us into the impending recession.

Also there is probably a massive crisis in both the law and banking sectors at the moment. Following the Michael Lynn scandal, I would not be surprised to find out that there are dozens of corrupt individuals and firms frantically trying to get their affairs in order right now. I would say the media are well aware of the situation but are excercising some self-censorship for the moment..

davej

bonkey

davej wrote: »

Many know the economy is about to fail,

Many also know that economists have successfully predicted 11 of the last 3 recessions.

They are being brought to light and taken seriously now because many powerful people want him removed - as punishment for leading us into the impending recession.

That would be incredibly foolish of them. If the recession does hit, you want someone in place to take the fall. Otherwise, you run the risk of someone making the argument that getting rid of him was instrumental in causing the recession / making it worse.

Also there is probably a massive crisis in both the law and banking sectors at the moment.

Sure you mean there might be a massive crisis about to happen? If its happening at the moment, and its a massive crisis, there should be no probably about it....it should be impossible to miss.

I would say the media are well aware of the situation but are excercising some self-censorship for the moment..

I'd say the media are unhaooy to work off "probable"-based speculation.

cavedave

Also there is probably a massive crisis in both the law and banking sectors at the moment. Following the Michael Lynn scandal, I would not be surprised to find out that there are dozens of corrupt individuals and firms frantically trying to get their affairs in order right now. I would say the media are well aware of the situation but are excercising some self-censorship for the moment..

This is an interesting case. What seems to have happened is someone used the fact that prices kept increasing to convince themselves that
if they bought houses and used the capital from those to buy houses and used the capital from those to buy houses and...
they would turn straw into gold. Turn out they were wrong, But it might not be a singular case. How many people are invested in this pyramid like house of cards? If we all are then there could be problems.

davej

bonkey wrote: »

Many also know that economists have successfully predicted 11 of the last 3 recessions.

Point taken, however there is no doubt that we are experiencing a housing bust at the moment (10-15% drop last year, this year developers slashing prices by €100K). By itself it may not be enough to bring the whole country into recession, but coupled with our over-reliance on construction and some severe external economic factors (the global credit crunch and US recession), it looks like we are sailing into the perfect storm.

That would be incredibly foolish of them. If the recession does hit, you want someone in place to take the fall. Otherwise, you run the risk of someone making the argument that getting rid of him was instrumental in causing the recession / making it worse.

Well I would imagine the "outcome" will be delayed to coincide with firm confirmation that we are in recession. Bertie's chances of survival are correlated with the success or failure of our economy.
What I am getting at is this: The Mahon Tribunal's investigations have become a proxy for passing judgement on Bertie's track record in running the country. Nobody really cared if Bertie was a little corrupt until the first hint of problems in the housing market began to emerge in mid 2006.

Sure you mean there might be a massive crisis about to happen? If its happening at the moment, and its a massive crisis, there should be no probably about it....it should be impossible to miss.

Regarding the solicitors, I grant that what I am saying is speculation.
Up until there is a prime time investigation exposing how rife corruption is, the general public will not realise there is/was a crisis. But right now you can be sure that any solicitor who has been naughty is doing everything in his power to get his affairs in order..

We're all familar with the 'party' metaphor with regards to credit expansion and the boom-bust cycle: Eventually when the party is over the hangover kicks in.
But there is also a lot of cleaning up to do after a party, some people will have behaved inappropriately and will be taken to task for causing the mess.

davej