Leopardstown Sunday

Colonel Sanders

Pierse hurdle day on sunday. Looks a decent renewal this year.

Roman Villa is definately the pick of the weights IMO. Runs here off a 5lb lower mark than when 2nd to Jack the Giant last time (work that one out!). However the likely heavy ground might be a negative against what would otherwise be a rock solid ew bet, especially if one or two of the bookies start paying 5 places.

I don't fancy Merchent Paddy but a mate of mine saw Charles Byrnes in Paddy Power on Baggot Street yesterday backing him.Was only a relatively small bet but could have been going from shop to shop having smallish bets in each.

Wins now against Scotsirish in the beginners chase. Wins now is an outstanding bet if the sportinglife's forecast 7/4 is accurate (some hope, their Irish forecasts are usually pretty laughable)

Sizzler

You're right about the weights, he's well in !

My personal fancy would be Deutschland.

dotsflan

Was in PPs today and was told that roman villa is a good thing for sunday someone had 2000 on @ 7/1 in PPs. Personally i'll probably have a bit on Boulavogue each way at 25/1. Ran well enough recently behind pigeon island and is carrying a light weight and he also wont mind the soft going

meriwether

What do people think of Lenry's chances?
He's a little lighter than last year, maybe Moore has had him over the fences (good runs too) to keep his hurdle mark down?

Colonel Sanders

meriwether wrote: »

What do people think of Lenry's chances?
He's a little lighter than last year, maybe Moore has had him over the fences (good runs too) to keep his hurdle mark down?

Lenrey's probably still well handicapped over hurdles. Ditto Tiger cry. Tiger cry isn't one I'd trust tho and Lenrey might need better ground.

Bullensroad

Its hard to know what to expect from Roman Villa with the expected heavy going on Sunday but his trainer Gordon Elliott expects him to handle the heavy going. I was at Cheltenham in November when he was second to a jonjo horse and i recon he would have won that by a few lengths but for Carberry dropping the whip at the last hurdle. The form being beaten by only 3/4L by Jack the Giant and giving him 2lb looks good albeit on good ground. I have had an eway bet on him during the week @ 6-1 but with all this bloody rain im not so sure now but if he handle the ground he has a cracking chance.

I have also had a small eway bet on Barker after looking at his race on atr website where he beat Harringtons french import Vaqueras by 9L on soft ground but in truth the jockey was motionless and never came off the bridle. He gave Vaqueras 11lbs that day and if he isnt a bridle horse he looked to be capable of winning by a lot bigger distance. I know you dont want to win these handicaps by too much and go up the handicap too much. He done enough to get into this race. I think the handicapper has put him up 15lbs for that effort. The Harrington horse won at Naas last weekend by 6 lengths in a weak enough race. I took 12-1eway in Ladbrokes and Timmy Murphy is booked to ride so that is a big positive. I dont know the stats but he seems to do okay when he comes over here for these types of bookings Al Eile and Celestial Wave springs to mind.


Another two interesting ones at bigger prices in the list of runners are,
Silver Jaro is a horse with an eway chance for Tom Hogan wh was giving Indian Pace 8lbs at Leopardstown and went down by 1/2L that day. On Sunday he will be receiving 4lbs from Indian pace the jockey may be claiming 3lbs. This turnaround in the weights and i thing the ground wont be a problem makes him a nice eway chance at 20-1 on ppowers.

The final eway one is Charlie Swans, Boulavogue. This is a trainer who is cabable of winning some nice pots and training a horse for a race. I wouldnt be surprised if this fella was aimed at this race he gets in with a lovely weight 10-2. He was entered in a grade 1 in France but injured a hock in that race got a rest to recover and was back in the Autumn and ran two nice races in Listowel and Galway second in both. He then went to Haydock in a decent class race was beaten 9L out of the handicap. At 25-1 a nice weight and if he handles the heavy conditions will be interesting to see how he does. I also see there has been a few shillings for Maralan Oliver Bradys horse i think he was fourth in this last year at 100-1.

The above are my thoughts on the race folks. Good luck on whoever you back.

Colonel Sanders

Totesport have put Roman Villa in at 8/1. Even with ground doubts I reckon he's worth a bet at that price. Unfortunately I'm waiting on my new credit card so will have to get one of my family's credit cards to back it with them!

Bluetonic

Sizzler wrote: »

My personal fancy would be Deutschland.

If he's only 2nd maybe the Leopardstown stewards will assist him again :rolleyes:

HiCloy

Any know how likely/unlikely this is to go ahead?

Bluetonic

HiCloy wrote: »

Any know how likely/unlikely this is to go ahead?

They are expecting worst case another 20mm of rain this evening, can't see it going ahead if it comes.

The jock

How about Total Victory at a good e.w price, he wasnt too far behind Do the trick last time out.Colm Murphy thinks it has a good chance off low weight.I hope racing goes ahead as Ive got a nice price on it.Chelsea Harbour should go well in the Pierse Chase and Vic Venturi should win the Handicap Hurdle.

knighted

im going with island life as my each way nap 2moro -will love the heavy- form on heavy reads 1135 -currently 33s paying 5 places

vaughny

anyone know how many are racing in the main one pierse hurdle tomorrow?and does it pay out 5?

applehunter

Looking at the Pierce Chase, I fancy View Mount Prince a lot. Hes a nice weight and has the form over hurdles on the ground.

Lack of chase experience the obvious negative but Leopardstown is easier than most chase tracks

Bluetonic

vaughny wrote: »

anyone know how many are racing in the main one pierse hurdle tomorrow?and does it pay out 5?

On the track/tote/regular places you'll get 4 places, some bookies (PP incl) will pay five.

am i bovvered

I just want to say big thanks to Bullensroad, read his reply late last night , made a lot of sense and I decided to go for it.
You are a legend.

Bluetonic

am i bovvered wrote: »

I just want to say big thanks to Bullensroad, read his reply late last night , made a lot of sense and I decided to go for it.
You are a legend.

LOL every horse nearly got a mention.

am i bovvered

IMO from reading the reply it was clear that he was tipping barker the strongest, it was clear there where a lot of other horses to consider.

HiCloy

Bluetonic wrote: »

LOL every horse nearly got a mention.

Yeah he mentioned 4 but in fairness he gave good explanations as to why he fancied each, something that not everyone does here and is good to see, so well done.

Also, 2 of the other 3 came 3rd and 4th!

Just home from this, good days racing but 0/6 winners for me :eek:

Bullensroad

Just home from Leopardstown was a good days racing. What a day for Ruby Walsh winning the first three races.
I know what you mean when you say i mentioned a lot of horses in the Pierse Hurdle but this race was one where a case could be made for a lot of the runners. The number of runners in the race, the ground and the number of horses that seem to be on an upward curve. I havent posted here in a while but remember people being told to post reasons for fancying a horse.

The favourite came a cropper half way through so we`ll never know how he would have got on he will be back no doubt. The only bets i had in the race was eway`s on the winner and Roman Villa for Gordon Elliott and if the ground was a bit firmer he would have been a lot closer. The winner looks decent enough and the fact that he stays 2m4F helped in the run in. Hope some of ye backed him.
I didnt hear any word on David Casey he took a serious fall off Perce Rock hope he is okay.

Colonel Sanders

Backed Roman Villa each way. Went out with a pocket full of cash to back wins now but wanted odds against after his fall last time out. The bookies did me a favour! Ridiculous price. I reckon he could be one for the Jewson chase at cheltenham. He was remounted in his chase debut so only needs one more run over fences to get a handicap mark.

What a gamble in the last on Harrington's bumper horse. There seems to be a failed plunge on at least one horse in this 4yo bumper every year. How can anyone know if a 4yo will go on ground like that?

HiCloy

Bullensroad wrote: »

I didnt hear any word on David Casey he took a serious fall off Perce Rock hope he is okay.

I heard he was unconscious after the race, but regained consciourness shortly after and was taken to hospital. Hope he's alright, looked a v nasty fall

sheliainwex

whatever about 4 year olds and going it stuck out a mile that the only horse owned by the sponsor was well in to take the bumper, i wqas also lucky enough to hop on footy facts ew..nice end to the day though russel gave the horse a peach of a ride ...that helps...

Cantoris

Managed to pick out the bumper winner. We had a good look at him in the Land Rover sale but we left at around the 40k mark. Not sure what he ended up at but made nice money for a Beneficial. And O'Briens bumper horses are going ok. Had a biggish priced winner at leopardstown over crimbo. With the stable kinda out of form, they are not punting them like they used to although his price was rock steady at 7/2 despite all the money for the fav. Reckon he would have ended up 5/2 otherwise.