Change my savings from £££ to €€€?

elambra

Ok I am UK based but see myself moving back to Ireland within the next 1.5 years. I have £10k in savings.

Based on the Pounds performance against the Euro lately, and it's performance for the next year, would anyone recommend converting it to Euro sooner rather than later?

DJDC

Why dont you make a long call on a Jun 09' €/£ FX Future.

[HTML]http://data.tradingcharts.com/futures/quotes/RP_.html[/HTML]

You are essentially 'hedging' your bets against any possible decrease you are going to suffer in the value of your sterling against the euro.Be careful to close out your future before delivery date though.

Ekancone

Not a terrible idea considering that the BoE are likely to lower rates quite a bit over the next couple of years while the ECB are looking to raise theirs.

portomar

definitely convert it asap, sterling was rangebound against euro for a long time, its broken that now so all bets are off, also ecb is going to raise rates while boe more likely to cut.

some analysts think sterling will reach parity against euro.

ixus

You're getting good advice here so far. You could hedge as DJDC said or make the move.

Your gut feeling must already be telling you to change.

Portomar is right, the big guns are already short the £, Jim Rogers, Marc Faber etc.

Move it soon and don't even think about it again.

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

A Random Walk

I'm not an astrologer and I don't know what way currencies are going to move, so if it was me and I knew for certain I was shortly moving I would convert everything to euro. That way I know for certain how much I have when I return and I'm not playing Gordon Gecko trying to second guess the foreign exchange markets.

Blackjack

Room for the rate to go up to £.80 against a Euro according to a trader I know.

Zascar

Rather than post a new thread I though i'd wake this one up.

Blackjack your mate was right! http://www.x-rates.com/d/GBP/EUR/graph120.html
It's at £0.80 today!

My question; is this likely to continue? Yes, I know no one has a crystal ball, or can tell the future, but can anyone make an educated guess based on current world financial outlooks, on whether the Pound is going to Continue to slide against the Euro? I'm hoping it does as I want to bring in a car from the UK in a few months, its getting cheaper and cheaper for me

Blackjack, can you ask your mate what his current predictions are?
Thanks

portomar

Zascar wrote: »

Rather than post a new thread I though i'd wake this one up.

Blackjack your mate was right! http://www.x-rates.com/d/GBP/EUR/graph120.html
It's at £0.80 today!

My question; is this likely to continue? Yes, I know no one has a crystal ball, or can tell the future, but can anyone make an educated guess based on current world financial outlooks, on whether the Pound is going to Continue to slide against the Euro? I'm hoping it does as I want to bring in a car from the UK in a few months, its getting cheaper and cheaper for me

Blackjack, can you ask your mate what his current predictions are?
Thanks

oh come on! just cause he spits out a round number you think hes an oracle!? there were plenty of us predicting the euro rising and we were all right!

Zascar

Oh please... I'm not looking for him to see into the future for gods sake. He's a dam currency trader - he is paid serious amounts of money to know the economic factors in the world that contribute to currency fluctuations, and have a pretty good idea about what might / is likely to happen in the short-medium term. He has a better idea than I do, and that's all I'm looking for - an educated opinion.

Blackjack did not say in what timeframe his freind made the £0.80 prediction, it was pure coincidence that on the day I read this post the amounts matched. The fact is that he was correct.

People try to bet and predict things like this all time time, the most obvious being the stock market. "Target Prices" are set my investment houses all the time for individual stocks, cause they study the company and the surrounding factors and make a best judgement call on what they think that stock will be priced at a certain time. The same happens with currencies, but its it probably less volatile than individual stocks. So saying that this cannot be done is just incorrect. The level of accuracy of these predictions is or course anther matter.

I am not asking anyone to accurately predict the future. I'm asking as I've already stated, for educated opinion on the likelihood of the Pound to continue to Slide against the Euro over the next few months, or whether current factors indicate that is will slow down or maybe even change direction any time soon.

As you said "there were plenty of us predicting the euro rising and we were all right" - My question is, how likely is it to continue, and does anyone want to hazard a guess as to how far - and back it up with a reason as to why you think this...

I'm no economist, but I don't think it's unreadable to expect anyone that really does know their stuff about financial markets etc, to have a pretty good idea.

RSF76

I am currently working in Ireland earning the Euro. I am planning to send some money back to the UK as I need to pay a few big bills (totalling about £5000 ). What is the best method for me to send the money back, without getting stung by banks taking there cut of my hard earned Euros !!! I was toying with using one of the foreign currency exchange website, but they all seem to be based in the UK, or have a website ending in xxxxx.com (not .ie, or .co.uk). Can anyone recommend a company they have used in the past and was it worth it. Or do they now of an Irish agent ??
I really do grudge the way the banks take a cut of every Euro you exchange, but also say on the paper work...."commission free"....aye right, nothing is free in this world.

I am with Ulster bank here in the Rep of Ireland. Would it be worth shopping around the high street banks to see what establishment would offer me the best deal ?

As far as I can gather these currency traders operate at rates somewhere between the interbank rates and the rate the Bank offer you on the high street ?

Would be interested on anyone's opinion that have transferred money to the UK and the best way they thought to do it !

Blackjack

portomar wrote: »

oh come on! just cause he spits out a round number you think hes an oracle!? there were plenty of us predicting the euro rising and we were all right!

aw, bummer. You don't like that my mate might have been right?.

portomar

Blackjack wrote: »

aw, bummer. You don't like that my mate might have been right?.

yea thats what it is :rolleyes:

portomar

Zascar wrote: »

Oh please... I'm not looking for him to see into the future for gods sake. He's a dam currency trader - he is paid serious amounts of money to know the economic factors in the world that contribute to currency fluctuations, and have a pretty good idea about what might / is likely to happen in the short-medium term. He has a better idea than I do, and that's all I'm looking for - an educated opinion.

Blackjack did not say in what timeframe his freind made the £0.80 prediction, it was pure coincidence that on the day I read this post the amounts matched. The fact is that he was correct.

People try to bet and predict things like this all time time, the most obvious being the stock market. "Target Prices" are set my investment houses all the time for individual stocks, cause they study the company and the surrounding factors and make a best judgement call on what they think that stock will be priced at a certain time. The same happens with currencies, but its it probably less volatile than individual stocks. So saying that this cannot be done is just incorrect. The level of accuracy of these predictions is or course anther matter.

I am not asking anyone to accurately predict the future. I'm asking as I've already stated, for educated opinion on the likelihood of the Pound to continue to Slide against the Euro over the next few months, or whether current factors indicate that is will slow down or maybe even change direction any time soon.

As you said "there were plenty of us predicting the euro rising and we were all right" - My question is, how likely is it to continue, and does anyone want to hazard a guess as to how far - and back it up with a reason as to why you think this...

I'm no economist, but I don't think it's unreadable to expect anyone that really does know their stuff about financial markets etc, to have a pretty good idea.

none of which negates my point that most of the people who replied were right. i also have a mate whos a currency trader, and though he makes money for his company and is good at his job, and though we were agreed on direction of pound v euro, hes the first to admit that id be better at his job than he is because im more interested in it than he is. you dont have to be a currency trader to be able to look at and read these things. my current opinion, is that just at the moment, bets are off because of possible double topping and possible conclusion of rate cutting cycle by BOE, ill give it a few weeks then let you know what i reckon.

ps, the parity of euro pound prediction came from same currency trader

Blackjack

portomar wrote: »

yea thats what it is :rolleyes:

Oh well. Have a few more Rolleyes then.:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes: