Pound, Euro, Dollar in 2008

luckylucky

I'm not 100% sure if this is the relevant section to discuss currencies, sorry if it's not.

Just wondering what is the consensus on how these 3 major currencies are likely to fare in 2008. I have a personal interest in this as I got a mortgage with a Uk bank for a property in Portugal a few months ago. The past 5 months have seen the pound fall fro 1.4775 to 1.3555 as of now. Since we havent moved the money over from our UK bank yet, this has cost a lot of Euros.

With the low interest rates in the UK, I have a feeling this slide might continue for a while yet, but I'm no expert.

My hunch is to cut our losses and transfer the pounds from the Uk to Portugal asap, does this make sense?

Are there any good websites out there that provide information on future currency trends?

Any info greatly appreciated.

Thomas_S_Hunterson

luckylucky wrote: »

I
Are there any good websites out there that provide information on future currency trends?

If they can predict future trends then they sure as hell wont tell anyone about them;)

luckylucky

Sean_K wrote: »

If they can predict future trends then they sure as hell wont tell anyone about them;)

lol, yeah ain't that the truth.

Ok so what sort of indicators should you be looking for.

This is my basic understanding

1. Low interest rates has a negative impact on currency performance.
   
2. Strong Economy has a positive impact.
   
3. More Exports than Imports has a positive impact.
   
4. Political stability, as in banks and other institutions feeling jittery if they have someone like Bush at the fore that they dont have a lot of confidence in.

Am I correct in the above? Or is it too simplistic?

I'm sure I've left out some important factors?

aphex™

I think the gap could widen a bit more between the Euro and Pound. This is because the ECB only takes into account inflation rates (currently too high) when considering whether to increase interest rates. The UK on the other hand is considering lowering interest rates to combat the 'credit crunch'. Additionally, in the UK consumers aren't spending enough.

Thats my opinion. Anything could happen really. Disclaimer: I'm not a professional.

luckylucky

aphex™ wrote: »

I think the gap could widen a bit more between the Euro and Pound. This is because the ECB only takes into account inflation rates (currently too high) when considering whether to increase interest rates. The UK on the other hand is considering lowering interest rates to combat the 'credit crunch'. Additionally, in the UK consumers aren't spending enough.

Thats my opinion. Anything could happen really. Disclaimer: I'm not a professional.

Cheers, I think you're right btw, I think it's going to decline further against the euro for the reasons you mention.

portomar

my advice would be move the cash asap, if you could rightly predict currency fluctuations you wouldn't need a mortgage in the first place. my personal opinion is that the pound will decline against euro, a strategist on cnbc today said he expected to see parity at some point. again, this could all be rubbish but my advice to move the money straight away stands.

incidentally, why did you take out a loan in sterling for a eurozone mortgage? are you uk based??

luckylucky

portomar wrote: »

incidentally, why did you take out a loan in sterling for a eurozone mortgage? are you uk based??

I lived in Manchester for 4 years until this July, we live in Portugal now. I could have tried to get a mortgage in Portugal too but as I had been working in the UK and we knew how the system worked there and also it can be tricky as a foreigner to get a mortgage in Portugal so in short that's why we ended up getting a UK mortgage.

While we're talking incidentals . Your alias doesn't have anything to do with Portugal by any chance. The first 5 letters of your alias reads Porto (2nd city of Portugal) and the last 5 read Tomar (a town of about 30K people, about 25KM from me here).

daveirl

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luckylucky

daveirl wrote: »

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I don't dispute that, but sometimes needs must, it would have been far more difficult for us to have got a mortgage in Portugal. Also we have a house in the UK that we're renting out, which basically covers the mortgage payments, that was another reason for going for the UK mortgage.

My own earning situation also is a bit different than the norm. I'm an online professional poker player, so the value of the dollar has a big impact for me. Basically the recent decline of the dollar is very bad for me. So here's hoping that the dollar doesn't continue it's slide against the euro also, have a feeling though that it will

daveirl

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luckylucky

daveirl wrote: »

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I've no idea tbh but I'd imagine not easily at best as a european based in europe. If it was possible it wouldn't have been a bad idea actually, as long as soon as we got the money we moved it to a euro account so it didn't go down further in value.

luckylucky

On the subject of the dollar, it's decline of recent years seems to have ground to a halt the past few weeks, it's actually gone up about 5% against sterling in that time. Is this just a temporary lull, or do people think it's fall will continue once again in 2008?

portomar

luckylucky wrote: »

On the subject of the dollar, it's decline of recent years seems to have ground to a halt the past few weeks, it's actually gone up about 5% against sterling in that time. Is this just a temporary lull, or do people think it's fall will continue once again in 2008?

personally, i think the dollr will continue a gradual slide long term but calling the bottom is the hardest game in town so who knows. seems to be concensus that sterling is goint to decline though. and no my handle doesn't have a portugese connection!