Snow risk Christmas night

darkman2

Possible snow risk Christmas night. I will update this thread later today but the 00z GFS has a definate snow risk associated with a weather front on the night of the 25th.

Sir Digby Chicken Caesar

i don't think 'risk' is the appropriate word.

darkman2

Probrably right actually - 'Potential' :P

fatherdougalmag

Just to clarify that you mean the night of the 25th rather than the night of the 24th (Christmas night/Christmas eve )

Trogdor

I thought that looking at the charts last night and was going to post something in the Where's the snow thread, but thought I must have been looking at something wrong when I read the posts saying there was no chance of snow. Not much of a risk here I think. The highest risk would be in the midlands, the North, and higher ground.

ninebeanrows

Just been having a nice little look and this and all talk of Christmas being a mild washout can be totally ruled out.

Infact Christmas Day looks like being the a most chilly day with the *potential for some surprise snowfall.

Enough so for 8/1 to seem a little value.

Now before i looked at the charts i expected 10c and rainy because i have been away from the computer for a while.

Part 1 Christmas Snow Risk)

Checking out Christmas morning we see a slow moving cold front pushing in to Britain, cold air digs in behind the front and temperatures drop with a widespread frost. As the back end of the front is moving so slowly the underlevel low temperature look like they may catch up with the front

@ 1am on the 25th temperatures in Dublin are expected to be 2c with precipitation.




@ Midday Christmas Day it looks like being awful chilly with temperatures widely between 1 and 4c, coldest around where that rain may have turned to snow. Very chilly.



Towards nightfall temperatures across the country are between 2 and 3c (perhaps a little to high at this stage for snow but not far off)

With a band of precipitation moving from the west to east.


Also note on this image the 528 DAM line is south of Wicklow


All in all an interesting Christmas Day with around a 40% chance of a snow shower being recorded in Dublin Airport.

Snowbie

Good research WC.In all fairness today 23rd would be the day we could safely say what weather,weather type(precip)if any to be falling on Xmas.

I suppose going by the charts above it indicates of a wintry nature,but unfortunately most would not agree(ensembles that is).

It be cold and windy and seasonal but for snow,maybe the hills of Donegal or in the north be lucky.The charts above say different though as they have it more widespread.
Thats the first time i have seen the 528 dam thickness this far south in the last 4 days of model watching.Interesting i agree but there is no agreement with most models still.
12z be interesting.

I'm reminded of two wise words often used in situations like the above.

Cold Rain.

That 528 line's position is entirely notional and combined with only -5 850's and undercutting atlantic maratime air does not usually a snow storm make.

ninebeanrows

Definately could be some snow showers in the North, Midlands and East on Christmas night, with 850's sub -5c and ground temperatures expected to be between 1 and 3c.

The day itself looks like seeing the rain clearing with temps between 3 and 7c.

Interesting night though.

arctictree

Who knows....the current metoffice chart shows an LP in the Irish Sea on at midnight on XMas eve:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/charts/FSXX00T_48.jpg

Maybe on high ground we could see some...

A

Supercell

Hmm, I reckon any snow is likely to be on very high ground (circa 500 meters+) and up north with maybe some sleet down to about 200 meters and cold rain for lower levels.

I certainly don't see any lying snow below 500 meters in Dublin or Wicklow unless the cold gets a serious upgrade.

Longfield

Longfield wrote: »

Hmm, I reckon any snow is likely to be on very high ground (circa 500 meters+) and up north with maybe some sleet down to about 200 meters and cold rain for lower levels.

I certainly don't see any lying snow below 500 meters in Dublin or Wicklow unless the cold gets a serious upgrade.

Agreed,I'd say if anything does happen,it will require an upgrade on the above and more model agreement.Currently it's a whisker of a chance with even 1500ft being the absolute limit below which the precipitation will be watery in nature.

Meanwhile met.ie give it no chance and I'd tend to agree

Glasnevin wrote:

Christmas Day will be cold and breezy, with bright or sunny spells and scattered showers; the showers are likely to become prolonged and perhaps heavy as the day goes on. However, drier conditions will develop after dark and a persistent southwesterly breeze will prevent temperatures from falling too low overnight. St. Stephen's Day will be fairly mild but with fresh to strong, southwest to south winds.

arctictree wrote: »

Who knows....the current metoffice chart shows an LP in the Irish Sea on at midnight on XMas eve:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/charts/FSXX00T_48.jpg

Maybe on high ground we could see some...

A

Aye but look more closely and you'll see that makes the tiniest of chances even worse as it brings in a feed of air off the warm Irish sea.

Trogdor

Certainly looking quite chilly on Christmas day, max of 4C on the according to the 12z, and with percip around too. I would have thought that Longfield and Arctictree have quite a high risk of snow.
http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/dayforecast.asp?zipcode=Wicklow&day=2

Supercell

I wish it were so, maybe some very wet sleet, snow, unlikely imho, hope I'm wrong!

arctictree

Any update on this?!! Is it a total impossibility now?

Gonzo

met eireann doesnt sound very promising, its gonna be a dry clear and frosty night and some rain showers christmas day and temps of 5 to 8C.

arctictree

arctictree wrote: »

Any update on this?!! Is it a total impossibility now?

It was always an impossibility given the source of and the synoptics around this "snow risk".
Decades of weather watching made me so sceptical of the need for excitement that I gave it a very very low probability.
I'm giving it even less probability now if such a thing is possible.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UW48-7.GIF

-4 850's = snow above 4000ft at best

The precipitation chart shows plenty of cold rain though

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-2-42.png?6

I won't bother posting the UKMO as it's actually worse.

ninebeanrows

It sure doesnt look overly promising but it is possible.

Anyway i reckon its about as good as we could have hoped for.

A festive Christmas morning with a hard frost, and i would not be surprised if there was a surprise flake or two on Christmas AM in the east and southeast.

Then towards evening, temps of 2-4c and showers.

Danno

Well, I am quite optimistic really, I remember very similar sipnostics on Christamas 2003/2004 where we did get snow here between 00z and 03z. Interesting times ahead...

Gonzo

just saw sky news long range forecast and they are giving a band of rain, sleet and snow working south on saturday with snow showers on the west coast of Ireland. Sky news's forcasts are often very inaccurate for Ireland so what are the chances of us seeing some snow this saturday?

Trogdor

Gonzo wrote: »

just saw sky news long range forecast and they are giving a band of rain, sleet and snow working south on saturday with snow showers on the west coast of Ireland. Sky news's forcasts are often very inaccurate for Ireland so what are the chances of us seeing some snow this saturday?

Saturday's cold seems to be quite significantly upgraded on todays models so it's certainly possible, still a lot of time for change though.
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample_C.shtml?text=EIDW
On the 06z, at 9 on Saturday morning temp is 2C, dewpoint at 1C with moderate percip, air thickness 525dam and upper air at -5C. There's certainly a chance.

nacho libre

be kind to us troposphere:D

Snowbie

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Feel free to start a new thread about any up and coming events that are of interest.
Cheers.