Dial-A-Bet Chase 27/12/2007

meriwether

Betting:
Nickname 5/6 (a)
Mansony 4/1 (b)
In Compliance 5/1 (c)
Schindlers Hunt 10/1 (d)
Hi Cloy 12/1
Accordian Etoile 14/1 (e)
Foreman 16/1 (f)
French Accordian 20/1 (g)
Central House 25/1
royal Shakespeare 40/1
In th High Grass 100/1


First up, Im going to cut the bottom 3.
Then Im going to cut hi Cloy. I think he's too old.

That makes it a seven horse race.
The ground is key.
I think its nowhere near the bath needed by Nickname. He was taken out of Cheltenham, and that was softish. Leopardstown couldnt possibly (I work in Stillorgan) have got enough rain recently to get the ground he loves.

Im also going to cut In Compliance. I think 2m is too short for him these days.
He also prefers it softer, IMO.
Schindlers hunt will like it a bit softer aswell. He had a pipeopener recently, but he wasnt great, and his form tailed off towards the end of last year.

I think Mansony could be the answer to our conundrum here.
He will go on good-soft ground, had a pipe-opener in the race won recently by the Listener, and I think he has the best profile of a 2m chaser of the lot (bar Schindlers hunt, who'se form is putting me off).

Essentially, I think Nickname wont run.
I then need something second best. I think Mansony is that horse.

Opinions?

hiscan

i going to oppose you and go for schindlers hunt

HiCloy

Nickname 5/6
Mansony 4/1 (b)
In Compliance 5/1 (c)
Schindlers Hunt 10/1 (d)
Hi Cloy 12/1 - DOUBTFUL RUNNER
Accordian Etoile 14/1 (e) - DOUBTFUL RUNNER
Foreman 16/1 (f)
French Accordian 20/1 (g) - DOUBTFUL RUNNER
Central House 25/1 - NO HOPE
royal Shakespeare 40/1 - NO HOPE
In th High Grass 100/1 - NO HOPE

Agree on Mansony, I think that altho his G1 win in Punchestown was in a very weak race for the grade conditions will suit him best. I'm not sure about the strength of Schindlers Hunt novice form either, and Foreman who has some decent form in the book could run well at a decent price if coming on from his reappearance. Think the trip is too short for In Compliance, especially in a smallish field on good ground, and the ground too fast for Nickname

dotsflan

Agree with you Hicloy i think Foreman could be a good ew price if the remaining 8 stay in the race

RichieLawlor

dotsflan wrote: »

Agree with you Hicloy i think Foreman could be a good ew price if the remaining 8 stay in the race

Foreman is definitly the value, 3 runs ago his beating of then Arkle winner and subsequent champion Chaser Voy por ustedes is arguably the best bit of form of any of these, still lightly raced, blew up last time but travelled very strongly for the most part.

meriwether

Mansoany did it as I thought might happen, but Nickname is the one to take from this.
He hit a flat spot, was 3 lenghts off at the back with 6 to go, not race fit, on unsuitable ground, but he fairly picked up from 2 out.

with similar ground or softer, Ill be fancying Nickname to take revenge with minimum of fuss next time out.

I must say however, Mansony looked to be cruising 2 or 3 out. A verygood horse,but I feel Nickname will be better from now on.

pid()

Conditions did not suit Nickname today, which is why Mansony won, coupled with the fact that Nickname hadn't ran in ages. Will definitely improve after this and is a force to be reckoned with.

Corben Dallas

there was a lot of support for Mansony pre race , eventually got to J/F with Nickname.

This was a race that Nickname lost, if 'Slippers' had tracked the other 'fancied' runner more closely he would have won. He kept him out the back, nearly always the backmarker, and came with a strong run to press the winner for second, Mansony needed the line and veered badly over the last with NM jumping very well (+straight) he got a monster run that would have been a winning run if the jock had tracked the main opposition closer.

punchestown

In Compliance ran a cracker and the run today will have done him the world of good. Should be a good race in him between now and the end of the season as with Nickname.