Bula Hurdle

RichieLawlor

Straw Bear FTW

that is all

Shan75

Macs Joy getting 8lbs but has he still got enough ability?I have placed a small interest bet on him.

mdwexford

Wow i agree with you for once

Straw Bear e/w @10/1 is a cracking bet.

hiscan

Shan75 wrote: »

Macs Joy getting 8lbs but has he still got enough ability?I have placed a small interest bet on him.

+1

Colonel Sanders

Poor auld Macs joy, RIP.

Champion hurdle looks wide open and also a poor race

hiscan

pity about macs joy
i think sublimity was exposed today

meriwether

Backed Afsoun at 6/1, very unsatisfactory run.
I dont mind losing (well I do) but when my selection proves to be very, very poor like this, that makes it worse.

What do people make of Sublimity?

I thought he won CH last year on merit.
I didnt think he would win today, as he wasn't race fit, and IMO, horses from small yards dont have the required facilities to get fit, bar getting a race into them,
However he does tend to run well when fresh, so thats a concern, but of course, he wasn't returning previously to races as hot as this.

Im starting to like the look of Harchibald for big race glory, to be honest.
I reckon Meade has a grip on this, with Jazz Messenger and Aitmatov to be potentially deployed also.

Shan75

Terrible about Macs Joy.Another good horse lost.It's hard to tell right now if this race really says anything.Sublimity possibly needed the race as well as Straw Bear although both won first time out last year.Osana was given a ridiculous amount of ground at the start.What were the other jockeys thinking?He was already about 5 lengths clear at the tapes.I know some horses need to be held up but that was crazy.Katchit ran quite well and as a young horse should still be improving.If you were to take the race at face value you would say Harchibald would be laughing if he can just manage to get up that hill(which I would be very happy to see) but that is almost certainly not the case.

RichieLawlor

Ran as if he needed the race, travelled brilliantly and McCoy wasnt hard on him when his chance was gone, the way its shaping up i wouldnt discount him yet.
Would love to see him take on Harchibald at Kepmton

as it stands i think Sublimity may have been found out, he always runs well after an extended break so to say he needed the run would be off the mark i think.

Harchibald is a MASSIVE price at 8/1 now

Corben Dallas

Sublimity is a average prospect as best, lucked into the Champion Hurdle,(lucked in ...as he put in a the run of his life and won well >for one race) A list horses put in this lvl of race performance nearly ever race (Kauto Star, Denham Brave Inca) Sublimity is not anyway near this class.

The fact that his owners havent run him since his CH win bears this out.

Even with this run under his belt I seriously doubt if he runs a monster against top quality opposition.(nxt time he lines out)

An yet ppl on these baords were hailing him as the nxt big thing after his CH success.
my 2c

Morgans

From what I could understand of your post, Corben Dalas, I disagree with it. A winner of a champion hurlde being an average prospect. Class.

Straw Bear supposedly burst. Not a good trait, but at least its a reason for his poor run. However, ran unaccountably badly at Kempton last year. I dont think he can be punted on with confidence until the problem has been sorted out. Nice horse.

Winner is improving and this years bunch of champion hurdler wannabe look worse than last years.

Colonel Sanders

Good to see dessie hughes not discounting the champion for Hardy Eustace

In what looks a poor renewal I reckon he'd still have his chance.

meriwether

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Good to see dessie hughes not discounting the champion for Hardy Eustace

In what looks a poor renewal I reckon he'd still have his chance.

I was thinking he might, its a weaker race.

What do people make of Afsouns run, HE just held him off @ Ascot, but the Bula run makes that form look not so hot?
Unless Afosun had a freak-bad race on Saturday, I thought he travelled well against HE, just bullied out of it in the end.

Colonel Sanders

I thought the form of last year's champion was pretty worthless tbh. When detroit city was scrubbed along both Conor O'Dwyer and Ruby Walsh started racing on Hardy and Brave Inca over a mile from home. Set it for hold up horses and Afsoun stayed on into 3rd. I thought any champion hurdle in which Afsoun could finish 3rd was a pretty poor race. I thought Hardy actually had plenty more up his sleeve when beating him last time out and being his first run of the season was a very satisfactort run. It remains to be seen if he can still mix it in proper grade 1 company when he's rising 11 but the champion looks an average race this year. Afsoun should have went novice chasing IMO.

Btw has any horse ever regained the champion hurlde title?

RichieLawlor

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

I thought the form of last year's champion was pretty worthless tbh. When detroit city was scrubbed along both Conor O'Dwyer and Ruby Walsh started racing on Hardy and Brave Inca over a mile from home. Set it for hold up horses and Afsoun stayed on into 3rd. I thought any champion hurdle in which Afsoun could finish 3rd was a pretty poor race. I thought Hardy actually had plenty more up his sleeve when beating him last time out and being his first run of the season was a very satisfactort run. It remains to be seen if he can still mix it in proper grade 1 company when he's rising 11 but the champion looks an average race this year. Afsoun should have went novice chasing IMO.

Btw has any horse ever regained the champion hurlde title?

i agree with this and i still wonder would Iktitaf have won had he stayed upo as he was going everybit aswell as Sublimity

Robin1982

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

...Btw has any horse ever regained the champion hurlde title?...

Comedy Of Errors; 1973 & 1975

Morgans

Comedy of Errors is the only horse to have regained the Champion Hurdle. 73 and 75. No one has done it with a three year gap.

I know Afsoun gets worked up before his races, but he was particularly on edge on Saturday. Very much like his triumph. I was tempted by Afsoun ew on Saturday but was turned off by his sweating and jog-jogging antics. His form on Saturday was nothing like that at Ascot.

meriwether

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

I thought the form of last year's champion was pretty worthless tbh. When detroit city was scrubbed along both Conor O'Dwyer and Ruby Walsh started racing on Hardy and Brave Inca over a mile from home. Set it for hold up horses and Afsoun stayed on into 3rd. I thought any champion hurdle in which Afsoun could finish 3rd was a pretty poor race. I thought Hardy actually had plenty more up his sleeve when beating him last time out and being his first run of the season was a very satisfactort run. It remains to be seen if he can still mix it in proper grade 1 company when he's rising 11 but the champion looks an average race this year. Afsoun should have went novice chasing IMO.

Btw has any horse ever regained the champion hurlde title?

Hardy had a pipe opener in the Cesarewitch prior to Ascot, that put him spot on.

Corben Dallas

(my post reads a bit better now):o

Last yrs CH was poor race all round , Detroit City (now finished), Brave Inca & Hardy eustace coming to the end of the top lvl racing (tho they poss still some big runs in them) and a wonderhorse that will set the racing world alight for the next few years......./sarcasm.

Taff

Sublimity remains the one to beat come March, none of Saturday's runners have a realistic hope of finishing in front of him at level weights come the Festival.

The winner is virtually guaranteed to be Irish trained and a 1-2-3 seems very likely - the current English hurdlers just don't have the quality at that level.

Colonel Sanders

Good article in the racingpost today about the champion hurdle. A lot of their panel still like sublimity. Its so wide open I could see a novice, something off the flat or possibly a completely unexposed horse (such as sublimity did last year to win it). Was told that Ask had been bought to go hurdling but is still with Stoute so might nor be true.

Angles

looking forward to see sizing europe running again, thought he won cosily last time in atrocious conditions, had aitmitov beaten i think first time out this season...his next run should tell a lot.

i've been telling people all summer that Katchit was under-priced at 4/1 , very difficult for triumph winners the following season but i was very impressed with his run on Saturday, better than the final result imo. i'll wait a few weeks until people forget about him a bit more and then will take the 12/1 on offer before he takes the kingwell....

Sublimity the one to beat...forget about the rest of them.....

Harchibald has no chance............i've never forgiven him for not winning the county hurdle off 10stone

RichieLawlor

Angles wrote: »

Harchibald has no chance............i've never forgiven him for not winning the county hurdle off 10stone

Lol, good reason. Harchi will dot up

mdwexford

Taff wrote: »

Sublimity remains the one to beat come March, none of Saturday's runners have a realistic hope of finishing in front of him at level weights come the Festival.

The winner is virtually guaranteed to be Irish trained and a 1-2-3 seems very likely - the current English hurdlers just don't have the quality at that level.

You obviously dont have much understanding of weights if you think that was why Sublimity was beaten on Saturday.

Ballyman

Osana was very impressive, all things considering.

What makes me even more excited though is that I hold a 60/1 voucher on Sizing Europe, who beat Osana handy enough in the Greatwood!!

Not sure if Leopardstown will suit him over xmas though but he is one to be on the right side of come Champion Hurdle Day.

Taff

mdwexford wrote: »

You obviously dont have much understanding of weights if you think that was why Sublimity was beaten on Saturday.

eh?

meriwether

Taff wrote: »

eh?

He was beaten by 18.5 lengths, but was only giving him 8 pounds.
Roughly, the ratio is every two pounds is a length in 2 mile races, and reduces to 1 pound is one length for 3m + races.

On a strict interpretation of weight v distance beaten, Osana should have beaten Sublimity by 4 lenghts, not 18.

At least thats my interpretation of things.
Anyone want to destroy my bubble, that Ive been using to pick winners and losers for the last 3 years?

masterK

meriwether wrote: »

He was beaten by 18.5 lengths, but was only giving him 8 pounds.
Roughly, the ratio is every two pounds is a length in 2 mile races, and reduces to 1 pound is one length for 3m + races.

On a strict interpretation of weight v distance beaten, Osana should have beaten Sublimity by 4 lenghts, not 18.

At least thats my interpretation of things.
Anyone want to destroy my bubble, that Ive been using to pick winners and losers for the last 3 years?

I've always taken a slightly different interpretation to weights over distance. I use 1lb per length per mile. So over 2 miles an 18 length victory would equate to 9lbs but over 3 miles it would be 6lb.

meriwether

masterK wrote: »

I've always taken a slightly different interpretation to weights over distance. I use 1lb per length per mile. So over 2 miles an 18 length victory would equate to 9lbs but over 3 miles it would be 6lb.

Im confuses (talk of weights, ratings, in and out of the handicap always does this).

Do you have any links for your system (Im not saying its wrong, just that Id like to read more)

masterK

meriwether wrote: »

Im confuses (talk of weights, ratings, in and out of the handicap always does this).

Do you have any links for your system (Im not saying its wrong, just that Id like to read more)

No links as such, I had originally read about it in a book (think it was one of mordins). After that it was basically down to trial and error over the years.

The basic premise is that the further a race is the longer the winning distance is going to be, i.e. if horse A is superior to horse B, A will be further ahead after running 2 miles than after running 1 mile if both horses have the same weight.