Nick Mordin.

meriwether

What are peoples opinions?

He flashed through my mind as I read the Cheltenham results, he tipped up Wonderkid big quite a while back, said he would be the next Xcountry king.
He won today at 5/1.
I have a back catalogue of Irish Fields at home, I might try and dig up said article.

I find myself thinking he come sup some some ****e somethimes (Kauto Star last season for example), but other times he gives a new angle or some good advice that crystallies in your own mind what you were thinking anyway.

kincsem

He is a legend. My first success from Nic Mordin articles was in 1992 when he reduced the Epsom Derby possibles to four from a field of eighteen. I narrowed the four down to one, the winner Dr Devious, at 12/1, and won £3,500.

wb

I'm a huge fan after reading "Winning without thinking" . I'm currently reading his earlier book 'Betting for a living' which is also fantastic.

He has had a few blunders... and if you read his article in the weekender, he may be on to another one. He reckons that Denmans recent success is overhyped judging by the speed figures, and looks set to flop in the lexus - I'm not so sure!

The one downside to his stuff, is the fact that he places too much emphasis (in my opinion) on speed ratings. I think they are useful, but with UK or Irish racing, they are not the main variable. It's different in the US though.

All in all, I love his stuff and never miss his articles in the Irish Field or the Weekender.

Cantoris

Like most good tipsters, he gets it right and he gets it wrong. You just hope if you follow him he's right more often than wrong. What I like about him is that he can back up his argument without slating all the other horses first, which is what pricewise tends to do. So it isnt a matter of elimination but picking he right horse. On the other side, he is full of it sometimes and Kauto was a case in point. I hope he's wrong about Denman, I thought he would win the gold cup before the hennessey and i just hope it hasnt taken too much out of him first time out.

k101

i first came across mordins work in odds on magazine around 15 yrs ago. i was very impressed with his analysis and his way of thinking. i have since read all his books and there is good stuff in them. However over the years i have realised not ot take eveything he says as correct. I would advocate reading his stuff but analyse it for yourself and decide which bits is worth noting for future reference..

finbarrk

I think he is as good as whats there. I remember he said Motivators Derby win wasn't anything special and I made a lot of money laying him after that.

meriwether

k101 wrote: »

i first came across mordins work in odds on magazine around 15 yrs ago. i was very impressed with his analysis and his way of thinking. i have since read all his books and there is good stuff in them. However over the years i have realised not ot take eveything he says as correct. I would advocate reading his stuff but analyse it for yourself and decide which bits is worth noting for future reference..

I agree, he's the first guy I turn to in the Irish Field, but I have a healthy scepticism for what he says.
No-one's right all the time.

meriwether

finbarrk wrote: »

I think he is as good as whats there. I remember he said Motivators Derby win wasn't anything special and I made a lot of money laying him after that.

He doesnt rate Adamant Approach either.N
Nor Denman, nor Kauto Star last year.
He was in love with Detroit city however.

He gets it wrong sometimes, but he gets it right aswell sometimes.

slowlyin2stride

A fookwit of the highest order.

Anyone who gives this cretin credence needs certifying.

I loved his touting of Dbest as a credible champion chase contender or that line ball must be backed for the sun alliance after winning a boat race.

finbarrk

slowlyin2stride wrote: »

A fookwit of the highest order.

Anyone who gives this cretin credence needs certifying.

I loved his touting of Dbest as a credible champion chase contender or that line ball must be backed for the sun alliance after winning a boat race.

Who would you rate as better than him so?

Van Dice

slowlyin2stride wrote: »

A fookwit of the highest order.

Anyone who gives this cretin credence needs certifying.

hmm, I find your ideas intriguing

meriwether

He couldn't say enough good things about Freds Benefit and Lenry after the race they had recently.
The former should have won today before tipping up, the latter pushed Sky's thelimit to a photo finish.

slowlyin2stride

finbarkk

How about you make decisions yourself instead of this bluffer who relies on times as a means of identifying future Irish winners??


A few snippets of Nick's gems of late,

After Spiderback won his 3yo maiden hurdle in Clonmel, NM stated afterwards "watching the race I couldn't help thinking that I may well have seen the Triumph Hurdle winner". Hang on there Nick until I get on the phone to my bookmaker before that top Cheltenham trainer Ger Lynch's mob nabs all the 100/1. Move over Nicholls, Jonjo, Pipe et al, there is a new kid on the block.

In the same edition, knowledgeable Nick wrote re Mick The Man after he was turned over at long odds on again, "I'd bet him to win pretty much any novice hurdle, preferably over longer". Another blow for Nick's disciples as it was chinned again at 1/5.


meriwether

U and Nick alike are covering all the bases with your selective citing of individual performances.

U stated that he couldn't say enough about Fred's Benefit post his Clonmel win. Let me remind u what he said about Line Ball post his Fairyhouse win, "I won't hear of Line Ball getting beat in the Drinmore Chase, and the 25/1 you can get about him for the Royal & Sun Alliance Chase looks awfully tempting".
Granted Fred's was all over the winner but for BJG decking him, but Line Ball was out with the washing.

And incidentally u said that he couldn't say enough about Lenrey who finished second to Fred's Benefit which is untrue, whereas following Perce Rock's win in Navan, he stated "he equalled the biggest rating I have given a novice chaser all last season......and marks Perce Rock out as a truly outstanding novice chaser". Well it was a 4 runner race today and even if he did tout Lenrey post Clonmel he had 50% of the field running for him today and he still couldn't pick the winner.

Granted he may put up the odd winner but individuals should not mistake his views as being "outside the box" instead of the shooting in the dark that they are.

If you want reasoned and informed analysis for Irish racing, and would rather rely on a tipster for finding your winners, Alan Sweetman of the Rp, is not only far more reasoned in his analysis but will show a better return for your £ in the long run. And incidentally I have no allegiance to neither, merely my own opinion.

meriwether

I have no allegiance either, I put the topic up to get opinions.

In fact, rather than putting up selective individual performances, I direct to you where I said:


"I find myself thinking he comes up with some sh1t sometimes....."

oh, and then I selectively cited examples where he also got it wrong, for instance Detroit city, and Kauto last year.

Check it out.

meriwether

Nick has finally seen the light regarding Kauto!

Amonsol

The guy is a joke.

tubey

Kept on bashing Dylan Thomas throughout his career, but you have to admire him for putting his head on the block. Look at someone like pricewise...when's the last time he had a winner?

stenjay

I have been a fan of Mordin for 20 years or so when he tipped Collier Bay in the Weekender as one of his horses to follow. This horse's write up caught my eye and Collier won 3 races that season at 33/1 , 6/1 and 10/1 The latter 2 races being the Irish Champion Hurdle and the Champion Hurdle. Mordin is a brilliant writer but at the end of the day it's your judgement that counts so back your fancy. If journalists like Mordin lead you to that fancy thats cool but I would never rely on following a hack blindly............

Mordin is a rare one among racing journalists, always with a different angle, so always worth a read.A bit like James Willoughby, though neither would lace the boots of the late Phil Bull for clarity of thought and expression. Have to agree he gives too much emphasis on speed figures, but thats his prerogative.
I would never back on the strength of one "tipsters" call anyway, you have to make and take responsibility for your own bets.
Best of luck with all your Cheltenham bet anyway

darklordsbane

Hi Guys
I dont know much about Nick Mordens past tips but I do know last year he was in love with menorah to beat Dunguib also Big zeb champion chase, weapons amnesty rsa chase and imperial commander in the gold cup, he did however also tip 6 losers but at the prices of those 4 you would have been well ahead,
I'll post later his 10 for this year
regards DLB

darklordsbane

Nick Mordins 10 for this year are as follows
Arkle chase = Finians rainbow, "the one they all have to beat"
Champion hurdle = Binocular non runner
Cross country chase= One cool cookie " he won a grade 1 as a novice and is more than capable of pulling off an upset win"
Albert bartlett or Neptune novice hurdle = Tornado bob "handled g/f going in his bumper days,I'd prefer to see him go for the longer race if ground does end up on the fast side, but on my ratings he has a major shot whichever race he turn up in.
Rsa chase= Jessies dream "it's becoming clearer that he will always be vulnerable off a slow pace at shorter distances but 3 miles and the uphill finish to pull back his rivals should be ideal"
Queen mother chace= Big zeb, " Big zeb is best when given a break of 6 weeks or more between races, he has lost every time when less than 6 weeks last time when Golden silver beat him it was 32 days, this time it will be 45 days Big zeb should be fresh enough to produce his best again
Jewson novice chase or the Byrne group plate = Aigle d'or "is best fresh, clocked a time that marks him out as the fastest horse in both races that he's entered in, jumped fast and well at newbury.
Gold cup = Imperial commander,and Pandorama " I would regard imperial commander as a good thing except for the weather forecast which suggests rain before friday, this would make pandorama a very tempting alternative at big odds, 4th in a point to point and pulled up in the english hennesy on a fast surface, but has won 10 out of 11 on ground slower than good the other time he was 2nd to Mikael D'Haguenet and found to be lame for a week after it.

It will be interesting to see how these 10 do over the festival Nick seems to have divided opions of his ability to be a tippster, good luck to all,
DLB

Goldcupfav

Mordin strikes again!! His take on Todays Oaks. This man is a legend.

DANCING RAIN SHOULD BE OAKS FAVOURITE

The clock says that the Swettenham Stud Fillies Trial at Newbury was that rarest of races; a Classic trial with two genuinely top class horses.

Nowadays there are so many Classic trials that most don't attract any proper Group 1 horses, and when they do it's just the one. But this race was an exception.

I concede I reached this conclusion with some difficulty due to the huge rail movements made at Newbury. They reportedly added 32 metres to the distance of races run around the turn.

Unfortunately this does not seem to be correct as it suggests the Fillies Trial was a significantly slower race than the mile and a half handicap won by Peintre D'Argent.

In fact the first ten furlongs of the handicap was run two seconds slower than the ten furlongs of the Fillies Trial and the last ten furlongs 3.4 seconds slower despite the slow early pace of the Listed race.

There are two ways I can see to fairly adjust for the slow early pace in the Fillies Trial to figure out the true merit of the race. The first is to use my sectional timing formula to factor in the speed they went over the last three furlongs. The second is to take those times from the ten furlong starter's stand at face value, taking off 1.7 seconds from the time of the handicap in both cases to adjust for the longer distance. The second approach makes the assumption that the effects of tiring over the last two furlongs in the handicap cancels out the effects of the slow early pace in the Fillies Trial. Experience tells me that my sectional timing formula produces a more reliable answer. But in this instance they both give the same big rating of 39.

The sectional times demonstrate the remarkable phenomena I've noted before of how top class horses can recover from a slow early pace to clock a decent final time. They covered the first half of the race 1.5 seconds slower than they did in the handicap but proceeded to go 4.8 seconds faster over the final five furlongs.

DANCING RAIN (39) wasted some energy by pulling hard against the slow early pace but looked sure to win when taking the lead approaching the two furlong marker. But she was somewhat marooned out in the centre of the course and understandably drifted right towards the stands side running rail. This allowed IZZI TOP (39) to go on after she'd quickened up to challenge. Dancing Rain picked up and closed the gap when she straightened up in the last hundred yards but was still a head shy of success at the line.

Both fillies were traveling really strongly crossing the line, and it was impressive how they rapidly opened up a three length gap on their rivals as they dueled through the final furlong

I suggested after her last run that Dancing Rain was the one to beat in the Oaks. And until this race no Oaks candidate had bettered the rating of 38 I awarded her that day. Now she's gone and run a bit faster.

Dancing Rain runs like she'll adapt to Epsom and stay the mile and a half of the Oaks, so she's an obvious candidate for Epsom.

Izzi Top is a little more problematic as trainer John Gosden says she didn't handle the dip at Newmarket on her previous start which raises clear doubts about the steep gradients at Epsom. In addition she looks a pacier sort than Dancing Rain. The fact that she's still in the Coronation Stakes over a mile suggests her connections have doubts about her going longer.

My feeling is that ten furlongs is Izzi Top's best distance. And her owner agrees. He said after the race "we're not sure she'll stay one mile four furlongs so it's doubtful she'll go for the Oaks."

This leaves Dancing Rain as the Oaks candidate to take from the race. She's now earned the two top speed ratings I've given all the Oaks entrants. So I think the general 25-1 you can get about her for the Oaks is plain crazy. As I see it she should be favourite.

UrbanSea

Good call alright but saying she should have been favourite is just stupid.

darklordsbane

Where did you see that article was it the Irish Field,
do you know what he thinks for the Derby tomorrow
DLB

Goldcupfav

Recital for the Derby and Masked Marvel to be in top 4 . Its on his website
http://www.nickmordin.com/

darklordsbane

Hi Goldcupfav
this was also on his website
MISTY FOR ME LOOKS A BIG PLAYER IN OAKS
MISTY FOR ME (38) clocked the fastest time in the race's 88 year history when winning the Irish 1000 Guineas. I should note the course seemed to be riding unusually fast and that a lengthy comparison of sectional times suggests her win only just slithers into Group 1 territory for an early season 3YO filly. Still it was a decent effort for a year where we haven't seen that many proper Group 1 three year old fillies in Britain and Ireland.
The question now is whether Misty For Me will stay the Oaks distance. My thinking is that she will. After all she won this race by outstaying her rivals and does seem built for middle distances. I concede you could argue the dam's side is too speedy for the Oaks trip, but her trainer Aidan O'Brien is pretty conservative about switching distances with his horses and doesn't make many mistakes in this area.
I concede that only two fillies have ever pulled off the Irish Guineas/Oaks double. But that's mostly because so few have tried it. Over the last half century just six Irish 1000 Guineas winners have gone on to run in the Oaks at Epsom and three of them would have won if Yesterday hadn't been such an unlucky second.
Misty For Me is a triple Group 1 winner that looks a big player in the Oaks. She has the alternative of going for the shorter Prix de Diane. However that would mean tackling Galikova who may well be just as good as the mighty Zarkava if my ratings are any guide.


People can change there mind but it seems strange after saying dancing rain should be favourite not to even mention her when posting this article, I backed dancing rain but I didn't see either article took 16/1 this morning but it was guaranteed with good ol Pat Toolans so I get sp 20/1


I wonder what he will select in the Irish Field tomorrow probably neither of the 2 on his web site


Regards DLB

hucklebuck

Mordin comes out with some rubbish.

I agree to a point on Galikova, I am going to take the 28's on betfair for the arc, but to say she is the same level as Zarkava is crazy.

She got my attention in the Marcel Boussac, did not seem too happy/ didn't handle the ground but finished very well.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TV94dybGcNo

convert

Hi darklordsbane, can you post a link to the site you got the info from? Thanks.

Nulty

its nickmordin.com