Bankroll Management Spreadsheet

CaptainNemo

I'm bored at work so I've been knocking together a spreadsheet that will take some variables and calculate forwards in time what should happen to your bankroll, what you can afford to withdraw, what stakes you can play, etc.

I've got a couple of questions about my variables. For one thing, I need to know what a realistic winrate might be. E.g. is 4BB/hour sustainable at all levels if you regard yourself as comfortably ahead of the opposition? Or does your BB/hour rate tend to decrease as you move up levels.

I've taken 40 buy ins as my optimum comfort level for NL. Is that ridiculously nitty or just sensible? Does anyone have any funky way of calculating the % chance of going broke when playing with 10/20/30/40 buy ins for a given level?

My figures seem to show that a monthly withdrawal of 20% of one's BR can be sustained without having to drop down stakes if one is playing 40 buy ins per level, 4-tabling, 4 hours per day. Can anyone give me feedback on how much they withdraw as a rule, does it tend to be a fixed % or just whatever you need whenever you need it?

The bit I'm least sure about is the BB/hour winrate for the different stakes, I'd be interested to hear what various people are managing if they would be interested in sharing.

Based on this spreadsheet, if my variables are right, a player who can win 5BB/hour at €1-€2 and 4BB/hour at €2-€4 can start off with €1500 and within a year be making monthly withdrawals of 6k+ without dropping down stakes by following fairly conservative guidelines (e.g. the 40 buy-in thing). So I'd be interested to know if the assumptions are correct and what anyone's real experience with this would be. If you only drop the winrate at €1-€2 to 4BB/hour, for example, it has a big effect (max. withdrawl after 1 year is still just 3.8k)

EDIT: I see BB/100 is more usually used as a winrate calculation. Does anyone know how many hands an hour might be typical at 1 6-max table?

zuutroy

4BB/Hour is very conservative I think....I think some of the better players here can beat 1/2 and 2/4 for 5ptbb/100 and if you're 4 tabling on iPoker you can play about 250hands per hour which give you a rate of 12.5ptbb/hour.

EDIT: here's a risk of ruin calculator

http://www.internettexasholdem.com/index.php?option=com_static&staticfile=bankroll-calc.html

CaptainNemo

zuutroy wrote: »

4BB/Hour is very conservative I think....I think some of the better players here can beat 1/2 and 2/4 for 5ptbb/100 and if you're 4 tabling on iPoker you can play about 250hands per hour which give you a rate of 12.5ptbb/hour.

EDIT: here's a risk of ruin calculator

http://www.internettexasholdem.com/index.php?option=com_static&staticfile=bankroll-calc.html

I should have said 4BB/Table/Hour. So it looks like my estimate is too high. If we take 60 hands/hour/table as typical then looks like a decent winrate would be around 3BB/hour/table.

If the convention is to express winrate in BB/Hands I'm going to rejig my spreadsheet a bit to fit with this. Thanks...

EDIT: That makes quite a difference. Max monthly withdrawal @20%; after 1 year on these variables is just under 3k, assuming a starting roll of 1500 (and only "working" 5 days a week). Start off with 3k and there's a huge difference...

CaptainNemo

This has been a really interesting exercise for me actually. Some things have become obvious really quickly through playing with the figures:

1) Small decisions quickly accumulate into large amounts of money over time. 5BB/hour isn't that much of a margin.
2) I have been playing beyond my bankroll pretty much since I began.
3) Presuming one is a winning player, investing a decent starting roll is vital and is probably the best investment one could make anyway.
4) You don't need to be playing very high stakes to make a good living. Even $2-$4 is enough.

Going to have fun with this. Next step will be to feed my own PT stats into it and see where I could end up in a year :eek: Haven't figured out how to build in the risk of ruin calculation. I mean, technically, following proper BR guidelines, there should be zero risk of ruin.

Another question for BR nits out there. How much do you have to be winning on a given table before you sit out? If you are keeping to a rule of having 40 buy-ins for your level and you quadruple up or more on 1 table, do you keep playing with such a large % of your roll there if there are other big stacks present?

cooker3

CaptainNemo wrote: »

This has been a really interesting exercise for me actually. Some things have become obvious really quickly through playing with the figures:

1) Small decisions quickly accumulate into large amounts of money over time. 5BB/hour isn't that much of a margin.
2) I have been playing beyond my bankroll pretty much since I began.
3) Presuming one is a winning player, investing a decent starting roll is vital and is probably the best investment one could make anyway.
4) You don't need to be playing very high stakes to make a good living. Even $2-$4 is enough.

Going to have fun with this. Next step will be to feed my own PT stats into it and see where I could end up in a year :eek: Haven't figured out how to build in the risk of ruin calculation. I mean, technically, following proper BR guidelines, there should be zero risk of ruin.

Another question for BR nits out there. How much do you have to be winning on a given table before you sit out? If you are keeping to a rule of having 40 buy-ins for your level and you quadruple up or more on 1 table, do you keep playing with such a large % of your roll there if there are other big stacks present?

I play until whatever donk I am after is gone. I don't really care about how much I have on a table at any 1 time, it only matters in terms of how deep I am against someone but I certainly don't have a stop gain so to speal