Oil reaches $96 a barrel

JHMEG

Only about $5 (adjusted for inflation) off the all time highs of 1970s oil crisis.

To a large extent we're shielded from the recent rises as the dollar has been tumbling in value against the euro, but should the dollar recover we're probably looking at about 1.80 a litre of unleaded.

$100 is a physcological barrier, but one oil goes over the $100, who knows where it'll end.

Not good times ahead.

smashey

JHMEG wrote: »

Only about $5 (adjusted for inflation) off the all time highs of 1970s oil crisis.

To a large extent we're shielded from the recent rises as the dollar has been tumbling in value against the euro, but should the dollar recover we're probably looking at about 1.80 a litre of unleaded.

$100 is a physcological barrier, but one oil goes over the $100, who knows where it'll end.

Not good times ahead.

Unless you're Shell or BP.

JHMEG

smashey wrote: »

Unless you're Shell or BP.

Ironically BP are taking a hammering (was a prog on BBC the other evening). Among other things they seem to be running out of oil. Altho I agree, the increase in oil prices is still helping their bottom line.

C_Breeze

1.80 is crazy , thats just speculation though, i dont think it will happen for a long while

C_Breeze

smashey wrote: »

Unless you're Shell or BP.

out of which neither operate in Ireland

JHMEG

C_Breeze wrote: »

1.80 is crazy , thats just speculation though, i dont think it will happen for a long while

$96 a barrel is crazy, up from $70 six months ago, and up from $25 a barrel 5 years ago.

is_that_so

Dan McLoughlin(BOI economist) this morning on radio suggested that there was some speculation afoot there. The price took a bit of a tumble a few days ago,on profit taking. Any time the US dollar is low,oil and gold are affected. Thankfully the exchange rate has protected us to an extent but $100 is looking very likely and probably €1.20 a litre + for us.:(

bazz26

One of many reasons I recently made the switch over to diesel. At least the fuel tank takes a bit longer to empty.

mike65

Exxon figures not to bright either.

Anyway, whats interesting is that the price of a barrel has doubled in two years and yet I'm still paying hardly any more now than I was two years ago (inflation adjusted) for a litre at my local Tesco.

Mike.

is_that_so

JHMEG wrote: »

To a large extent we're shielded from the recent rises as the dollar has been tumbling in value against the euro, but should the dollar recover we're probably looking at about 1.80 a litre of unleaded.

Not going to happen until a healthier picture of US growth comes through, currently looking at 2.5% or so. And then there's that housing problem .....
Doubt we'll hit €1.80.

Bluetonic

JHMEG wrote: »

Only about $5 (adjusted for inflation) off the all time highs of 1970s oil crisis.

In relatives terms it's still way off the highs of the 1970s

2007s $100 is not equal to 1970s $100.

Of course with the usd weakening against the eur, the rise from $70 to 96$ over the last 6 months is further diminished.

bazz26

Remember also that Northern Hemisphere countries are now into the cold winter months so demand for fossel fuels is higher than normal which will affect prices.

mike65

We need to have a winter first (its about 15/16C out there right now). Alot of the price
is entirly speculative - based on what ifs - Iran, pipeline burst, refinery explosion, cold winter etc.

Mike.

bazz26

mike65 wrote: »

We need to have a winter first (its about 15/16C out there right now).Mike.

Becareful what you wish for Mike.

One short cold blast and people will start ordering their home heating oil in bulk.

JHMEG

Bluetonic wrote: »

In relatives terms it's still way off the highs of the 1970s

2007s $100 is not equal to 1970s $100.

At the very worst of the oil crisis which was (I think) 1981, oil was $38 a barrel.

Adjusted for inflation that's about $102 in today's money.

E92

With an ever increasing number of people switching to diesel, and more and more fuel efficient cars out there like the Bluemotion Polo which does a whopping 72.4 mpg and the BMW 123d which has more power than a Sierra Cossie but at the same time does 54.3 mpg or the 530i which has only a fraction less power than an E28 M5/E36 M3 but still manages 37.7 mpg(and thats with an Autobox) or the 325i which is more economical than a 4 cyl E46 from only a few years ago, I think it definately will have less of an impact than it might have had once upon a time, especially as the whole of Europe will soon be driving cars which use at least 5% biofuel(and 10% in coming years).

However, it is still worrying because its very unlikely that oil prices will ever go down, especially as we will be running into peak oil soon enough.

JHMEG

E92 wrote: »

With an ever increasing number of people switching to diesel, and more and more fuel efficient cars out there

Which is more than offset by the numbers of new cars on the roads, especially in countries like China and India.

We passed peak oil in 2006 (wikipedia article)

All this makes me wonder at what point (or at what price per litre) people will think of switching their 2.0+ litre daily driver for something more smaller and lighter on the juice? There are several motors forums posters with "big" engines... what do you guys think? (I got rid of my 2.0 9 months ago)

pete4130

It's already 179.9cent a litre of pertol AND diesel (or it was last week) at the Statoil on Inish Quay on the way down to Hueston Station in Dublin......its been a good 40c-50c above everywhere else for the last few years...

Ginger

First place you meet off the boat and its the only one in the city centre .. so no competition

E92

Bigger engines doesn't necessarily mean more fuel is used.

A 530i(3.0) is more efficient than a Toyota Avensis 2.0. The 330i with the new range of engines(N53 High precision injection ones) is as economical as the 318i(2.0 l)from the E46.

It just so happens that most big engines are fitted to heavy cars.

You're right about China and India though, I had forgotten about them tbh, what I meant was as per my previous post is that newer cars are in general more efficient than old ones hence why it won't be as painful for us as it would have been all those years ago.

Didn't realise peak oil had already come though, but funnily or shouuld that be ironically enough if it wasn't for the EU fussing about the pedestrian safety regulations, which resulted in cars having to be designed more unaerodynamically(the thing about the shape of the bonnet and all that) and made them heavier, which in turn meant that cars need to have bigger engines and in turn means that cars are all larded up and using a lot more fuel than needed.

And to top it off the EU signs an open skies agreement, which means we can all fly cheaper and more often to the US, hardly the recipie for rewducing pollution and this combined with the desire to have blanket speed limits on Germany's Autobahns(and the prospect of the higheest limit anywhere in the EU being only 100 km/h) ultimately shows what hippocrits the EU are when it comes to tackling climate change and oil prices.

pete4130

Thats true Ginger, very true.

unkel

JHMEG wrote: »

All this makes me wonder at what point (or at what price per litre) people will think of switching their 2.0+ litre daily driver for something more smaller and lighter on the juice?

Or the opposite! A doubling of the current fuel prices would make large big engined second hand petrol guzzlers even worth less. The thousands one would save in depreciation by buying a big old guzzler would easily more than offset the extra petrol costs. A doubling of the petrol price from €1 to €2 would cost me €1.5k extra per year for my big V8 petrol BMW 7-series. Bring it on

While we're at it, let the government stick another €0.50 onto the price of a litre of fuel while abolishing motor tax and VRT. Happy days. The polluter pays, the air would be cleaner and all the zero sum administrative systems in place to collect revenue can be closed down

mike65

Unkel smells 7 series leather for tow-away prices!

Mike.

unkel

LOL

JHMEG wrote: »

We passed peak oil in 2006

If you believe the pessimists. Who have been proven wrong time and again. The first time they said we were about to hit peak oil, most families in Western Europe didn't even own cars yet!

I do concede though that the increasing demand for oil in India / China is an issue