the airline business in 10 years?

silverharp

I happen to believe that Peak Oil will be reached within the next 5 years. the implications being that 80$ will seem cheap compared to when demand is greater then supply and supply is falling. If oil prices fluctuate between say 150$ and 250$ this will mean the end of cheap flying and a much less reduced service as half full planes would be grounded and all kinds of economies of scale that airlines have enjoyed will reverse.
I wonder if airlines have considered this possible future that lies ahead of them or is there no point and they will react when it is too late.

Punchy07

I think fuel prices will increase for awhile but eventually an alternative will be invented,untill then the likes of Boeing and Airbus will have to build their planes to be as economic as possible to save expensive fuel for airlines the 787 being a good example

Fabio

Could hydrogen be used on planes?

Or even such fuels as alcohol...

dogmatix

Not hydrogen - less "buzz for your bucks" compared to oil. That is you need a lot more volume space of hydrogen to go the same distance. Saw a pic many years ago of a proposed hydrogen fueled airliner - it looked a lot like the Airbus beluga. would be environmentally frinedly though - only giving out water vapour as an exhaust?

silverharp

Fabio wrote: »

Could hydrogen be used on planes?

Or even such fuels as alcohol...

From memory the japs in ww2 used some form of alcohol and the germans were converting coal to oil. I think the main problem for the airline industry will not be a shortage of fuel it will be cost. There has been a virtious circle of higher frequency and higher seat occupancy based on cheap flights. If the marginal cost of keeping a plane in the air goes up significantly then these gains would start reversing.

Davidth88

We may be entering the realems of Sci Fi..... but what about Nuclear power ?

No idea if it could be used ( ie what would be the ' thrust ' as such )

dogmatix

The yanks put a nuclear reactor in a B36 in the 1950's - but it did not actually power the engines - just to see if they could carry one. Can't see how you would use one to power the engines tho - and imagine if it crashed... A veritable mini-chernobyl at every airport!

Catcher86

TWO TRILLION gallons of oil was recently found in the rocky mountains. Believed to be the worlds largest untapped oil source. There may be more convient finds like this in other countries when the world believes were running out of oil. Which we are but I dont think its as bad as they say it is.
Third and fourth generation biofuels are most likely the future for Airtravel.
They are actually a much better fuel than fossil fuels in so many ways, so its a win win situation.

Catcher86

Oil rises to record $86.13 a barrel.
I should probably head out now in the car and fill up the tank.

Davidth88

Guys

Remember that the dollar is worth roughly the same as a small sea-shell I found on the beach yesterday

But anyway .... bio-fuels........? Etholyne ( spelling wrong ) from sugar ?

silverharp

Catcher86 wrote: »

TWO TRILLION gallons of oil was recently found in the rocky mountains. Believed to be the worlds largest untapped oil source. There may be more convient finds like this in other countries when the world believes were running out of oil. Which we are but I dont think its as bad as they say it is.
Third and fourth generation biofuels are most likely the future for Airtravel.
They are actually a much better fuel than fossil fuels in so many ways, so its a win win situation.

I believe you are talking about the shale oil which is similar to the tar sands oil in Canada and Venesuala. The problem here is that although the reserves might look big the flow rate will be slow as it is more akin to a mining operation that requires vast amounts of water and natural gas to heat up the rock.

The 3 main issues are depletion of cheap oil, projected growth in demand, and tyring to plug the gap with unconventonal oil. The last major oil find was the North sea in the 1970's I believe the current statistic ts that the world consumes 30 billion barrels a year but only finds 10billion. Conservation through high oil prices will be part of the solution but this is bound to hurt the airline business as weekend city break flying for instance would be affected.

ednwireland

Catcher86 wrote: »

TWO TRILLION gallons of oil was recently found in the rocky mountains..

ah you'd be talking about extraction of oil from shale which would require the removal of the Rockies to extract the oil. also it requires large amounts of energy to extract. this is not "convenient" find no matter how the US try to spin it.

as for ethanol from sugar guess you'd rather drive and fly than eat, fair enough

eirmail

Oil will be expensive and scarce in 10 years but we will still use it for airplanes. We will probably use less for generating electricity , heating houses and possibly for cars.As a percentage of motor fuel it will be less , but as a total it might be about the same for cars.

Davidth88

Guys,

Maybe I am a complete sceptic here ( and this is WAAAYYY off topic as far as aviation is concerned ).

WHen I was young the fuel ' crisis ' hit , where the Arabian nations suddenly realised that they had the rest of the world ' over a barrel ' ( excuse the intentional pun ). And we had queues at petrol stations etc, and everyone saying ohhhh we are ' running out of oil ', which of course was utter nonsense , we just were not prepared to pay more than 2pence a barrel !

Now we seem to be in a similar situation.

Are we really running out of oil , or are OPEC holding us for ransom , as per the 1970's ?

Lets be honest , the ' war on terror ' is nothing about terror and everything about oil , even Osama admits this !

I have also been highly sceptical about the lack of development of alternative fuels, with the highly vested interest that the US gvmt/big business has in the oil industry why would they bother developing alternatives ?

silverharp

Davidth88 wrote: »

Guys,

WHen I was young the fuel ' crisis ' hit , where the Arabian nations suddenly realised that they had the rest of the world ' over a barrel ' ( excuse the intentional pun ). And we had queues at petrol stations etc, and everyone saying ohhhh we are ' running out of oil ', which of course was utter nonsense , we just were not prepared to pay more than 2pence a barrel !

Now we seem to be in a similar situation.

Are we really running out of oil , or are OPEC holding us for ransom , as per the 1970's ?

the 70's was more political in nature, there were embargos etc. this time around it is geological, people are worried that Saudi cannot grow supply anymore and may have overstated reserves in the past to increase quotas in the 80's. The term running out of oil is rediculous and is not the same as not being able to grow supply or that oil supply may drop 1-3% a year from a particular point in time. You have got to ask yourself at what price do people say I'll reduce my driving a little or flying for that matter if there is only 99 barrels of oil for every 100 of existing demand.

Catcher86

On a sidenote. The oil heaters that so many people seem to have in their gardens seem like a real waste, dont they?
Hey silverharp, do you work in the oil business?

silverharp

Catcher86 wrote: »

Hey silverharp, do you work in the oil business?

No, but I have investments in the energy sector so it keeps me interested in the area.