about betting % and odds

green123

just wondering how to convert betting odds back to the actual %

for example in football

team a evens
team b 3/1
the draw is 2/1

bookies make this up to be 110% or 120% book - like on oddschecker.com

what are the percentages ?

ArmaniJeanss

green123 wrote: »

just wondering how to convert betting odds back to the actual %

for example in football

team a evens
team b 3/1
the draw is 2/1

bookies make this up to be 110% or 120% book - like on oddschecker.com

what are the percentages ?

3/1 = 1 divided by 4 = 25%.
2/1 = 1 div 3 = 33%.
7/2 = 2 div 9 = 22.22%

So the rule is 'X/Y expressed as a percentage = Y divided by (X+Y)'

HTH.

green123

thanks for reply,
yes i see it now

wb

Not all the prices are listed here, but as a quick guide:

EVS 50%
21/20 48.8%
11/10 47.6%
6/5 45.5%
5/4 44.4%
11/8 42.1%
6/4 40%
13/8 38.1%
7/4 36.4%
15/8 34.8%
2/1 33.3%
85/40 32%
9/4 30.8%
5/2 28.6%
11/4 26.7%
3/1 25%
100/30 23.1%
7/2 22.2%
4/1 20%
9/2 18.2%
5/1 16.7%
6/1 14.3%
13/2 13.3%
7/1 12.5%
15/2 11.7%
8/1 11.1%
17/2 10.5%
9/1 10%
10/1 9.1%
11/1 8.3%
12/1 7.7%
13/1 7.1%
14/1 6.7%
15/1 6.2%
16/1 5.9%
18/1 5.3%
20/1 4.8%
22/1 4.3%
25/1 3.8%
28/1 3.4%
33/1 3%
40/1 2.4%
50/1 2%
66/1 1.5%
100/1 1%
150/1 0.67%
200/1 0.5%
250/1 0.4%
500/1 0.2%
1000/1 0.1%

myflipflops

green123 wrote: »

team a evens
team b 3/1
the draw is 2/1

If you ever see a match with these prices, please let me know immediately.

badbrian

pwhite587 wrote: »

green123 wrote: »

team a evens
team b 3/1
the draw is 2/1

If you ever see a match with these prices, please let me know immediately.

Would happen regularly. Tomorrow Luton are playing Northhampton
Home win Evs
Draw 12/5
Away win 3/1

Mellor

pwhite587 wrote: »

green123 wrote: »

team a evens
team b 3/1
the draw is 2/1

If you ever see a match with these prices, please let me know immediately.

Those odds aren't paticularly special. I make it out to be a 108% book. Nothing to run to the bank about

Aedh Baclamh

And what would he do anyways to make a little profit?

Warper

Mellor wrote: »

Those odds aren't paticularly special. I make it out to be a 108% book. Nothing to run to the bank about

Just wondering how do you calculate the book %.

ArmaniJeanss

Warper wrote: »

Just wondering how do you calculate the book %.

You use the formulae above and add up all the prices.
So in a 4-horse race if the prices are Evens, 2/1, 4/1, 9/1 then this is 50+33+20+10 = 113%.

If the bookie can lay all the horses for equal liability then his profit will be 13/113 expressed as a %. (Though in practise this will rarely be the case, and the overround should only be used as a guide).

Paddy Irishman

Warper wrote: »

Just wondering how do you calculate the book %.

Simply add the percentages for each selection together.

Originaly posted by Aedh Baclamh
And what would he do anyways to make a little profit?

It's only mathematically possible to guarantee a profit if a book adds up to less than 100%. This almost never happens with one bookmaker. Sometimes though the "best price" among several bookmakers can be less than 100%. If you've heard of the term "arbing" it's when people wait for an opportunity like this to happen and back each selection proportionatly to make a small profit.

Mellor

Paddy Irishman wrote: »

It's only mathematically possible to guarantee a profit if a book adds up to less than 100%. This almost never happens with one bookmaker.

It probably happens alot less than almost never
The odds are most likely instantly checked for this before going online, (almost all bookies online nowadays) and total odds will rarely be <100% at the same time. And most bookies wil have the same odds.
A more likely way to get a <100% book, and a good thing to watch out for is odds changing over time, this is more likely to happen in smaller field events.
For example, taking an early price in an event when you know the odds are likely to change due to an event in the mean time, like if you could backed a teams last group match at the start of a competion knowing that odds will likely change, (for better ot worse btw), a potential of a less than 100% book occurs

ArmaniJeanss

Mellor wrote: »

It probably happens alot less than almost never
The odds are most likely instantly checked for this before going online, (almost all bookies online nowadays) and total odds will rarely be <100% at the same time. And most bookies wil have the same odds.

I'd disagree with this. I'd say if you were willing to spend the time doing so, then you'd probably find at least one <100% book every day.
There are literally 10000s of markets being put up every day across 100s of on-line bookmakers, and the presence of the 'perfect market' on Betfair just adds to the likelyhood of finding an arb.
Whether you could consistently get enough on to justify your time is another question.

One of the best arbs I've seen was found by someone on this board a few months ago, where Sunderland could be backed to finish in the Top10 with Ladbrokes and the Bottom10 with Boyles for ~90%.

Edit: Dodge is right about me misreading the first bit of Mellors post.

Dodge

Infairness he was replying to the orginal post which stated "This almost never happens with one bookmaker."

That Sunderland arb is a great one.

Bernard Hopkins

lol,....thanks.

I found that one,....... but i dont think Sunderland will finish in the top half !!
thats where i left all my profit !!

The f1 is arb heaven,....... one bookie consistantly offers prices that can be layed on betfair for a healthy profit,.... i cant say the market or bookie, cause i like to snap the lot to myself,...but its usually worth a few hundred every gp.

Im sure bookmakers dont follow the f1 market very thouroughly ,... they are all guilty of offering massive odds well after a significant turn of events.

another of my favourites is to bet with the english bookies on the gaa,.....they take such little money that they never get "filled in" when their prices are wrong.

every live gaa game is worth a few hundred in arbing,....
then there is the punters that trade only on betfair , and dont know the prices bookies are offering.
(all arbing in-running)

Latchy

Hi, I do the fixed odds on English football every week and have done so for many years with limited success ,usually it boils down to 2 or 3 teams letting me down for between £90 to £1500 .I use the form guide in the mail or express every week as in best homes/draws/aways .
Just wondering if anybody else on here has success on the fixed odds and what methods they use and any advice for a win ?

ArmaniJeanss

latchyco wrote: »

Just wondering if anybody else on here has success on the fixed odds and what methods they use and any advice for a win ?

To be honest you are rarely going to get incorrect prices on the top divisions in football. All the teams are basically an open book, every bookie knows what the correct price on Chelsea or Fulham or Southampton should be each week, so whilst you might get a lucky streak its next to impossible to win long-term.

You have to specialise on something obscure which a) the bookies always price up and b) that it is potentially possible to have more information than bookmakers. (A bit like BernardHopkins above with his F1 bets).

In football terms this would be something like the lower leagues in Scottish football, where by joining fan forums/club websites etc you could pick up extra bits of info about new signings/injuries etc.

(e.g., if Chelsea are 2/5 v Birmingham and Cech gets injured the day before then it matters not an iota to their price, but for some Scottish Div3 team that may not have another keeper on their books other than some 16yo trainee then it would make a huge difference to their prospects).

Bloody hard work though, soccer is probably the hardest sport to make consistent punting profits from imo.

I've a mate who swears he makes consistent profits on LOI football because he's a serious fan and gets to hear good info about each team during the week.

Dodge

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

I've a mate who swears he makes consistent profits on LOI football because he's a serious fan and gets to hear good info about each team during the week.

Most of my profits would be on LOI football. Used to be more when UK bookies had even less of a clue.

Coups this year include Drogheda to win league at 7/1 (e/w top 3) with Coral. Pats to beat Longford at 8/5 (when everyone in the world knew the direction both clubs were going in at the start of the season), and Rovers to beat Drogheeda at 2/1 in the league cup when Drogheda were playing their u18 side

Each week there'll be one stand out bet

Latchy

Cheers Aranijeanss and Dodge .It is easy predicting the top premership teams ie, man utd ,arsenal liverpool etc home and away most weeks but funny enough , i picked 8 teams on the ladbrokes coupen and it was only liverpool winning away at everton this week that let me down for (£95) 95/1 ,when i had them down for a X . Guessing the 2nd and 3rd division english scottish games is also is the tricky one.

Bernard Hopkins

interesting stuff ,... the bookies were very slow off the mark for that shamrock rovers win ,.. a rare occurance.

the best thing to do is always to compare the bookies price with the current betfair price.
the prices move so fast and reflect any breaking information almost as it happens.
the bookie's alarm bell ring when they get a large lob-sided wagering pattern, which is of course far too late.