profitability in Poker(the role of maths in poker)

Gholimoli

Ok there has been lots of talk about how maths is used or over used in poker.
To be honest the whole argument sounds silly to me and im sure there are a lot of people who would agree with me here.
On there other hand it is not yet a totally understood concept by all or else we would not be having these regular discussions.
So here is an attempt to explain how money is made in poker and how math(probability) fits in :
When you look at how money is made in poker you will see that in a nutshell poker success (profibility ) is a function of having a statistical edge in the game and the ability to consistently exploit that edge.

I suppose I better explain what I mean by a statistical edge.
Essentially if we agree that the out come of each poker hand is uncertain (we can win money or lose money) then an edge is defined by the likely hood of one outcome happening more than the other.
Please note that I defined as out come as loosing money or winning money and not just losing a hand or winning a hand.
As you know it’s possible to have very little chance of winning a hand yet if the reward for winning is so great that is more enough to compensate you for all those times that you don’t win ,it’s still a good wager.(this is what EV is )
Poker failure on the other hand is more than likely due to playing in such a manner that has no proven or valid edge, or being incapable of consistently exploiting an edge.
Now to find any edge in the game you will need to understand probability.
There is no other way of having or finding an edge.
So essentially:

To win at poker you need to have an edge (and consistently exploit it) :
To do this we need to understand propability:
To do this we need to understand maths
So as you can see using maths is the only correct way of ever winning as this game.
Simple hey .
you can tear this apart now.

Mellor

*maybe its a good idea to merge this with the other maths thread started today*

I completely agree with your points. Great poker skill/ability is great, but only when used with a knowledge of probability.
A good player could be so used to certiain situations and makes decisions on instinct (or appears to), but infact he is using probability on a sub-con level. He is in the situation over and over, and "instinctively" knows what to do, but in reality he knows this from countless times of assesing the probability, it has become hard wired in

bops

so that's why computer programs win the whole time

fuzzbox

bops wrote:

so that's why computer programs win the whole time

Computer programs are not inherently intelligent. They are merely a reflection of what the programmer understands AND can articulate within the confines of the particular environment.

And computer programs do not equal maths.

RedJoker

Your post just explained why it's important to have an edge without explaining why an understanding of probability is important in achieving that edge.

If we have an edge we don't need to know the mathematics behind how this makes us money. Like a casino doesn't *need* to understand why having an edge in roulette makes them money, it just does. If there wasn't an industry standard, then they would need to understand probability to create that edge, otherwise they might pay out 37-1 instead of 35-1 and lose money.

Gholimoli wrote:

Now to find any edge in the game you will need to understand probability.

So the question should be why is understanding probability a necessary requirement for creating that edge?

ianmc38

I've only recently started looking at equities for most hands I play using pokerstove and I think it's a really neglected part of the game as it's crucial to know your EV when comparing your hands strength against a villains range.

Gholimoli

RedJoker wrote:

Your post just explained why it's important to have an edge without explaining why an understanding of probability is important in achieving that edge.

If we have an edge we don't need to know the mathematics behind how this makes us money. Like a casino doesn't *need* to understand why having an edge in roulette makes them money, it just does. If there wasn't an industry standard, then they would need to understand probability to create that edge, otherwise they might pay out 37-1 instead of 35-1 and lose money.



So the question should be why is understanding probability a necessary requirement for creating that edge?

An edge was defined as the likely hood of one out come happening more than another.
To know the likelihood of an outcome happening you will have to know the mechanics of what makes an out come likely to happen.
To understand that you will have to know two things:
1. Rules of probability
2. How to encompass those rules with the rules of poker.

Mellor

RedJoker wrote:

Your post just explained why it's important to have an edge without explaining why an understanding of probability is important in achieving that edge.
In every hand someone will most likely have an edge. It is nessecery to have a knowledge of probability to realise this edge. Can you show me a hand where someone knows he has an edge where he didn't use some form of probability or stats.
With an advanced knowledge of probaility you will be able to notice or realise edges you have where they aren't obvious. You would also be able to exploit situations to create an edge for yourself. For example, there was a hand posted by ollie (i think) where he called when behind after it was obvious to everyone that the the villian had made a straight on the turn. It looked like a clear fold, but upon analysis it was a +EV call

If we have an edge we don't need to know the mathematics behind how this makes us money. Like a casino doesn't *need* to understand why having an edge in roulette makes them money, it just does. If there wasn't an industry standard, then they would need to understand probability to create that edge, otherwise they might pay out 37-1 instead of 35-1 and lose money.
If we have an edge, knowing it or not will not make or lose us money (as long as we play the hand). Probability helps us to recognaise much more edges and therefore play more hands with where we have an edgeb and less hands where we don't

So the question should be why is understanding probability a necessary requirement for creating that edge?
Probability doesn't always create the edge, it just realises it.
Although as I said it can bve used to exploit a position to create an edge

Everybody like to get aces in PF against a single villian, why?
Probabiltiy shows it to be a huge favourite. Even if you didn't realise this was simple probability. Its a realisation apparant to all people who play poker based on quantitive statistics. Or "its teh nutz" which ever you prefere

RedJoker

Ok, it's making sense now. I was focusing on the wrong points. Thanks for clearing it up.

TommyGunne

Maths is clearly important. I do it every time I sit down at a table(edit: poker table that is. I am a nerd but not that much!) Pretty much every hand you play you can do rough guesstimates of percentages etc about hand ranges, hand odds, pot odds, stack odds, reverse implied etc based on previous knowledge of what they are. For live players especially, mental rough calcs are important as they dont have access to tools on the internet.
Obviously you can't do the long sums in 30 seconds online or a minute live, but by having seen these calculations before as done by Mellor, Fuzzbox, lenny leonard etc here you can make a good guess at what the answer should be by taking shortcuts.
Its surprising how many players live cannot understand how probability works, let alone do quick guesses. Its one of the easiest ways to get an edge at a soft table when starting out.
To put it simply, if everyone knew poker maths inside out, poker would be profitable for nobody as everyone would correctly assign hand ranges, bet/raise the correct amounts, fold when they should etc. ie the rake would win.
But not everyone uses them correctly, so correct use of maths can improve your game.
Wow that rambled!

mrflash

fuzzbox wrote:

Computer programs are not inherently intelligent. They are merely a reflection of what the programmer understands AND can articulate within the confines of the particular environment.

And computer programs do not equal maths.

All computer programs are based entirely on math. Computer programs are made up of formulas. Mathematical formula's.