Winter forecast released (UK) Ireland?

Snowbie

Cant get any wetter or milder than last year.Forecast covering the UK,so if it covers Ireland it is as close as we are going to get.
Have a look if anyone is interested.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2007/pr20070927.html

@07

"This winter is forecast to be warmer and perhaps drier than average. However, it is expected to be noticeably colder than last year" (looks great when taken out of context )

-0.4 @07:00 last night, getting cooler already.

Gonzo

I dont remember last winter being really wet? certainly nowhere nearly as wet as the summer just gone by. I do remember what seemed like 2 months of very windy conditions and very mild weather with temperatures hitting double figures almost daily.

mike65

Last winter was sh-i-te, nothing but gales from New Year.

Mike.

Supercell

Amen to that Mike, really not hoping for a repeat performance. Unfortunately last winter is exactly what we should expect with global warming here.

But not every year..just one last cold snowy 80's style winter is all I ask.

darkman2

Snowbie wrote:

Cant get any wetter or milder than last year.Forecast covering the UK,so if it covers Ireland it is as close as we are going to get.
Have a look if anyone is interested.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2007/pr20070927.html

A roundabout way of them saying 'we havent a feckin clue!'. It always amazes me how the UKmet can stick such glaring contradictions in the one sentence i.e - wet,mild - much colder. :rolleyes: If I printed it up I would'nt use it as toilet roll tbh.

Snowbie

Yeah DM if they dont know how La Nina is going to affect the coming Winter,why dont they just say it.Threading carefully cause they really messed up Summer's LRF back in March as being the warmest and driest on record.
LRF's pfttt.:rolleyes:

Although the next two LRF's in October and November will obviously be a wholllllllllle lot different.

Gonzo

im still waiting for the 'Sun' newspaper or similar rag papers in the uk to issue a frontpage article claiming that this winter will see 2 months of blizzards and -18 temperatures, they seem to do it every october and they certainly said it last year:)

Snowbie

Snowbie wrote: »

Although the next two LRF's in October and November will obviously be a wholllllllllle lot different.

Hmmm,Slightly similar forecast update

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/seasonal/winter2007_8/index.html

nacho libre

I recall reading something similar to this last month I hope it's not true. What we need this Winter is a sustained icy blast from Siberia or Arctic winds with polar lows coming down from time to time.

SpitfireIV

Above-normal winter temperatures are more likely......below-normal temperatures.....However, this winter is likely to be less mild in most regions than last winter.....Probabilities for above-normal temperatures are higher for northern Europe.....more uncertainty......winter-mean temperatures are more likely to be above normal than near or below normal........Although a winter milder than the 1971-2000 average is favoured........temperatures are likely to be lower than those experienced in the very mild winter last year.

Sorry, couldnt help but pick out all them confusing words I found that forecast very confusing. Like Darkman2 said, they sound like they havent got a clue.

Danno

Well, it is not what many snow-lovers like to hear, but it is a very realistic forecast in the context of what has gone before for many years now. I take interest in the part they say about early cold incursions.

My feeling is that Winter 07/08 will go as follows:

EARLY WINTER:
Very wet, cool and windy in the northwest of Ireland, expect alot of SE winds with a central european origin, This will lead to shallow cold pools drfiting in over the east and southeast with some transient snowfall as the milder NW airmass and the cooler SE airmass collide. Probably alot of sleet - near miss events.

LATER WINTER:
I expect that the Atlantic will rule here bringing more zonal patterns across Ireland, breezy and cool, few oppertunities for cold snow shower spells. As per usual, the jet will dip south later in February.

OVERALL SUMMERY:
Cold will never be too far away particuarly in December, Quite cool overall when comapred to 06/07. Breezy though never really stormy. Sunshine will be a notable absentee.

chalkie

CroppyBoy1798 wrote: »

Above-normal winter temperatures are more likely......below-normal temperatures.....However, this winter is likely to be less mild in most regions than last winter.....Probabilities for above-normal temperatures are higher for northern Europe.....more uncertainty......winter-mean temperatures are more likely to be above normal than near or below normal........Although a winter milder than the 1971-2000 average is favoured........temperatures are likely to be lower than those experienced in the very mild winter last year.

Sorry, couldnt help but pick out all them confusing words I found that forecast very confusing. Like Darkman2 said, they sound like they havent got a clue.

Confusing? Why? Sounds like a mild winter...whatever way you look at it...just not quite as mild as 2006!

Ah well....let's wait and see.

Gonzo

sounds like any winter we've had over past 6 years or so, mild, some rain, maybe sleety spells just not as excessively mild as last winter. Hopefully it wont be too wet. It looks like our 2 month long dryish spell is coming to and end this weekend tho.

Trogdor

Gonzo wrote: »

sounds like any winter we've had over past 6 years or so, mild, some rain, maybe sleety spells just not as excessively mild as last winter. Hopefully it wont be too wet. It looks like our 2 month long dryish spell is coming to and end this weekend tho.

The highly accurate forecast:p is for such a winter but the lead up to this winter has been markedly different to recent years though, during summer and Autumn so far. Not that that means it will have any affect on the winter but this year just sems different. I certainly won't be giving up on this winter being cold until March:D:p

Gonzo

I dont believe those longrange forecasts anyway, this year has been so different to all the forecast predictions, winter 2006/2007 was excessively mild with a ridiclous amount of wind, april 2007 was dry and very warm and very summer like, may to mid august was perhaps one of the worst summers I can remember in my lifetime with over 40 wet days in a row and low temperatures and autumn so far has been better than our summer with almost 2 months of dry mostly sunny weather with a few interuptions. Interesting to see what this winter will bring.