10/20 hand on ipoker

Norwich Fan Rob

just played a hand i didnt like........

im playing 1600 odd, villian playing about 2k

awful player limps utg (can be any hand)
villian makes it 100 (std raise after 1 limper)
i call with AK
button calls
limper calls
(430 in pot)

flop AKT rainbow
villian bets 300, i call, others fold.
(sometimes i raise, but this time i call, i believe there are arguments for both, its very villian dependant really, but i dont know how this villian plays, which is a large part of the problem here.)

anyway, turn is 3 completing rainbow.

villian now bets 700 into 1k pot, ive 1200 behind.

fuzzbox

Annnnnndddd shove

I think you should 3-bet AK with a good few players left to act.

opr

Surely we should be 3 betting here like always ?

For the reason Fuzz mentions also its highly likely the orginal raiser is raising to isolate the horrible player.

As played with the stacks as they are i shove on the turn too.

Opr

cardshark202

Really hate preflop, you should be 3betting and calling a shove all day here. As played you should ship the lot in on the turn. I would prob just raise the flop and get it in but your line is fine there.
Also, you should have topped up your stack, could have cost yourself some money.

pok3rplaya

I'm presuming you have your reasons for cold calling pf but obvuiously I like 3betting a high % of the time there. Actually I'd like to hear your reasons for not 3betting because this is something I've been thinking of recently.

I think I much rather raising flop because of all the players behind and any Q/J basically ruins our hand.

But since you didn't, shove turn and I don't really see any other 2 ways about it.

robinlacey

definitely a 3bet preflop,because you didn't 3bet you let 3 players see a flop and you have a strong but awkward hand,you got as good a flop as you could have hoped for and you're still not sure what to do!

and thats on top of the fact that you should be 3betting here for standard metagame reasons too.

against an unknown and without a full stack i just shove here,however if you had over 100bbs,or a read that the player is decent i think this is a fold,which is not to say that i could always bring myself to make it!

given that we have less than a full stack and are against an unknown,however,i think we need to raise the flop instead of the turn.

first of all,people are far more likely to get a rush of blood to the head and do something stupid like call with AQ or other pair/gutshot hands on the flop than if you call the flop and then raise the turn.

secondly since we've already established that we're getting it in but that we are probably not in great shape against his range,we are better off getting it in on the flop so that our equity is better in terms of having a draw to a full house,rather than waiting till the turn to stack off with one card to come.

also given how much you have to raise flops as a bluff these days its no harm to shown down a real hand once in a while.(obviously you wouldn't be raising the flop as a bluff in a four way pot too often but your opponent is unlikely to notice this distinction.)

cardshark202

Good post robin.

opr

I don't agree with some of this robin.

robinlacey wrote:

first of all,people are far more likely to get a rush of blood to the head and do something stupid like call with AQ or other pair/gutshot hands on the flop than if you call the flop and then raise the turn.

secondly since we've already established that we're getting it in but that we are probably not in great shape against his range,we are better off getting it in on the flop so that our equity is better in terms of having a draw to a full house,rather than waiting till the turn to stack off with one card to come.

Ok this guy has a range of lets say AQ,AK,AJ,A10,K10,JQ,AA,KK,1010

We raise flop as you say he may get a rush of blood to the head and get it in but he may also be sober in thought and fold. He has to know we are not bluffing here and he does not have the equity to call when behind.

If we call we allow him to bet again with his entire range if not he should at least c/c most of the time. When he does bet again on the turn if its with his entire range when we raise hes now priced into a call with all of his range which he was not on the flop.

So surely if our objective is to get stacks in the middle we should be allowing this to happen when his range is at its widest point not when as you put it our crappy draw to a full house is at its best equity wise.

Is this wrong ?

Opr

Van Dice

As played it's an easy shove.

What robin posted is excellent analysis of hand imo, and I definitely 3-bet this preflop 100% of the time here. If you call, then the blinds, and button in particular, know that if they call they will be seeing at least a 4-way pot.

eoin-dubh

but was this a short handed table or full ring?
should have whacked in a monkey preflop i guess.....

opr

I also don't see how if we are always getting it in that our equity is better on the flop than it is on the turn.

If we are behind and we need to hit but we always get the money in then surely the equity overall of both situations is still the same ?

In these kind of situation does our equity not only change when we may make a different decision based on the turn ?



Opr

robinlacey

good post opr.

i'm 5 tabling at the moment so i'm not certain about all this,but first of all it seems to me (at a glance,and bearing in mind that i'm crap at maths) that getting it all in on the flop with a house draw wouldn't be too disasterous,given how much money is in there already when he bets (700,nearly half our stack)

also,it just seems to me more likely that he will stack off with a worse hand on the flop more likely than the turn,this is just a difference of opinion really and i'm basing mine on my own experience,which could easily be to do with some of the hands i happen to have played/remembered,or the differences between the players on the sites we both play,etc.

judging the tendencies of unknown players is always going to be fairly inexact at the best of times,but it always seems to me people are more likely to make hero calls on the flop,a lot of people seem to be aware that things are a lot more serious on the turn,and i even thinking raising the flop might be more likely to induce a mistake simply because they have to act quicker and have slightly less time to realise what awful shape their AJ is likely to be in,etc.

also as i alluded to in my first post you should be making a lot of moves on a lot of flops,thereby making it easier for the villain to put you on one here,despite the fact that in reality there is almost no chance a good player is making a move here. people make far less moves on the turn (although sadly that is starting to change) and he will know this.

one of your assumptions i would question is that he will bet the turn with his whole range.i don't think most players will bet the turn with anything we beat,betting the flop then c/folding the tun doesn't make a whole lot of sense but that doesn't mean people won't do it,so i just feel like our best option here,or our least bad option,is hoping to induce some sort of hero call on the flop,which i believe to be more likely that you might think,especially these days as people are struggling to deal with ever more agressive games and therefore making bigger and bigger mistakes more and more regularly on flops such as this one.

i think what it comes down to is this:
given stack sizes and the fact that player is an unknown and therefore its not impossible that he's terrible,we probably have to commit to getting all in here.

once we are committed to getting all in,we want to do it when we are more likely to be against a worse hand than our own (in my opinion probably the flop) and when we are in better shape against the hands that we are losing to (undoubtedly the flop)

robinlacey

i'm actually starting to wonder if we might be better off calling the flop with the intention to fold the turn!

anyway,i see there were more posts while i was typing mine,i really need to start concentrating on the games im playing but i'll have a look later

Norwich Fan Rob

robin, if u dont think he will bet the turn with anything we beat, why do u then think we should ship our last 1200 on the turn, once he leads at it for 700.

i would 3 bet this 90% of the time pre flop, this time i didnt, i know i should of.
id only 3 bet once since i had sat, and that was shown to be AA, therefore, i figured they put me on a very tight 3 bet range, still prolly shoulda done it though.

i didnt raise the flop, as i thought he then only shoves with hands that have me beat, and i never really liked the hand, (mainly cause of my poor pre play), so i decided to see what he would do on the turn, i then hated what he did on the turn !!

realistically, after i cold call pre, and then another 300 on that flop, what hands can he lead the turn for 700 with?

robinlacey

Norwich Fan Rob wrote:

robin, if u dont think he will bet the turn with anything we beat, why do u then think we should ship our last 1200 on the turn, once he leads at it for 700.

i changed my mind over the course of the thread!

i'm now torn between raising the flop and calling and folding to a second barrell

Norwich Fan Rob

that was exactly my dilemma in the hand.
i decided, to re evaluate the turn, then when he bets 700, im not sure what i can beat.

everyone else seems to want to get this in asap though, despite his line on the turn.

Van Dice

I really don't think we're deep enough to fold this hand, especially given what the villain would perceive our hand range to be. He can't realistically put us on AA/KK/AK, so he could easily be betting a worse hand. We only need 35% equity.

This is an ultra-tight range, I can't imagine that we don't have an extra 5% equity against his actual range.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.645% 24.19% 06.45% 2310 616.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 69.355% 62.90% 06.45% 6006 616.00 { KK+, TT, AKs, ATs, QJs, AKo, ATo, QJo }

Since (imo) we're not calling flop to fold turn, I agree with robin's original post that getting it in on the flop is better. Even if he's changing his mind!

opr

If he bets with his entire range.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

2,200 games 0.015 secs 146,666 games/sec

Board: Ac Kd Ts 3h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.000% 55.00% 04.00% 1210 88.00 { AsKh }
Hand 1: 41.000% 37.00% 04.00% 814 88.00 { KK+, ATs+, KTs, QJs, ATo+, KTo, QJo }

What do we think he will not bet again on the turn ? AQ/AJ Take these out and you have.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,496 games 0.005 secs 299,200 games/sec

Board: Ac Kd Ts 3h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.984% 38.10% 05.88% 570 88.00 { AsKh }
Hand 1: 56.016% 50.13% 05.88% 750 88.00 { KK+, AKs, ATs, KTs, QJs, AKo, ATo, KTo, QJo }


Given this i don't think we should be considering a fold on the turn given our stack size and the size of the pot.

Opr

opr

Snap , Even if you take VD's slightly tighter (Exculdes K10) range we still should be getting it in here.

I don't think calling the flop with the intention to fold the turn given our stack size is good i would only do this if i thought that it widens the range of hands i may end up getting it in the middle with.
Thinking about it more and reading Robins second post i am not sure that it does and it seems really close but Robin is probably right that getting it in on the flop is going to be better.

Opr

Norwich Fan Rob

u havent included TT in his range.

also, the only hands in his range that we beat are KT are AT.
do u seriously think either of those bets 700 on the turn here given the action so far.......

imo, his range has to be narrowed a lot by the turn action.

before the turn, theres 1k in the pot, we have 1200 behind, its not like we are pot committed.

Hectorjelly

I think the hands we are likely to get all in with are roughly the same on the turn and river, except on the turn if you flat call the flop he may fire a 2nd bet with a lot of hands he is folding to action anywhere, (especially) in a hand like this its important to open up avenues for cash to flow to us, rather than the other way around.

opr

Norwich Fan Rob wrote:

u havent included TT in his range.

also, the only hands in his range that we beat are KT are AT.
do u seriously think either of those bets 700 on the turn here given the action so far.......

imo, his range has to be narrowed a lot by the turn action.

before the turn, theres 1k in the pot, we have 1200 behind, its not like we are pot committed.

Yeah Rob sorry i see i left out 1010 so we have about 5% less equity.

Ok lets say we get it all in on the turn

In effect on the turn we will be calling 1200 to win 2230 so pot odds of 1.86 to 1 ~ 34%

It actually alot closer than i thought.

Opr

opr

Hectorjelly wrote:

I think the hands we are likely to get all in with are roughly the same on the turn and river, except on the turn if you flat call the flop he may fire a 2nd bet with a lot of hands he is folding to action anywhere, (especially) in a hand like this its important to open up avenues for cash to flow to us, rather than the other way around.

Yeah this is what i was trying to say that the important thing in this hand is when the money goes in that the Villians range is at its widest point as our overall equity does not change on the flop or turn.

Edit - i also think the good thing about letting him fire again on the turn is due to stack sizes he also prices himself into a call on the turn when we shove with alot of the range that we beat.

Robin makes the point that soemtimes people will go a bit mad on the flop and may get it in when they would have c/f the turn with these hands. I think its really really close.

Opr

Norwich Fan Rob

initially i thought it was a jam, then i thought it was close.
now i think, if u narrow villians range based on turn action, as robin now also alludes to, it might be a fold

Van Dice

opr wrote:

Yeah this is what i was trying to say that the important thing in this hand is when the money goes in that the Villians range is at its widest point as our overall equity does not change on the flop or turn.

Edit - i also think the good thing about letting him fire again on the turn is due to stack sizes he also prices himself into a call on the turn when we shove with alot of the range that we beat.

Robin makes the point that soemtimes people will go a bit mad on the flop and may get it in when they would have c/f the turn with these hands. I think its really really close.

Opr

I would prefer this if it was HU and there weren't two people left to act on the flop

opr

Van Dice wrote:

I would prefer this if it was HU and there weren't two people left to act on the flop

Why ?

My thoughts

These guys are never going to be really drawing on a flop like this so what do we care about them. I actually think the fact they are in the hand is more of a reason to flat call. Lets say one of them has K10,A10,AQ,AJ and we raise and they fold is this not a bad for us ? Alternatively if they have us beat and we raise they are always getting it in with us. If they do flat call the orginal raiser is now going to be playing SUPER DUPER honestly on the turn so we can play accordingly. If they decided to raise we now have a decision to make but at least we have one as if we had raised and they had pushed we were always in bad shape anyway.

Opr

RoundTower

I would only call the flop if I thought he would fire the turn with worse hands a good bit, like AQ and bluffs.

ianmc38

As others have said, this is a 3bet preflop 100% of the time and calling a shove/shoving yourself if 4 bet.

The way the hand has played out, I'd just shove the turn, but I'd expect to be beaten alot.